【正文】 elemarketing and valueadded information service most likely to be outsourced CC OURSOURCERS ARE EMERGING BUT STILL EXPLORING (II) TCI SHOULD PARTNER WITH RIGHT LOCAL CC OUTSOURCERS A partnering strategy is essential for TCI to capture the great opportunities in China ? TCI lacks a bunch of local capabilities, while time is contingent TCI should target both money making, and money losing tech advanced outsourcers during negotiation process, based on two plausible partnership strategies ? Money making ones: share profits and leverage local strength ? Money losing ones: control and negotiate for a bargain deal Considering the limited number of candidates in China and TCI?s tight schedule, a broader search can strengthen TCI?s negotiation position Five promising outsourcers identified during the interview process ? Money making ones: China Motion, 800 Teleservices, and CompaqStar ? Money losing ones: TCY, ITS Shanghai EC: ONLY SOFTWARE FIRMS AND SIs WORTH PURSUING Although under booming, China ECommerce market are experiencing bottlenecks ? Online population and revenues grew 10 times in the past 3 years ? However, macroenvironment and infrastructure are problematic… ? … and only few ICP/ISPs are making money ICP, ISP and technology panies, as a sector, are not worth TCI?s pursuit ? ICP: Market is down while most China ICPs are still at their early stage development ? ISP: Highly fragmented and regulated, which suffocate both foreign participation and profitability ? Tech panies: Superior ones can hardly survive in China However, several top ventures in the above sectors are quite interesting, which are identified and illustrated in detail for TCI?s further interest ? ICP: 。 ? ISP: 263Net。 Modern Computer。 interviews Quality Service Style National monopoly ? Banking ? Tele ? Insurance ? Utilitity Regional protected ? Steel ? Auto ? Petrochemical ? Tobacco ? ... Monopolized industry estimated 55% of industrial output Higher tele peration COMMERCIAL CC TOOK OFF SINCE 1998 Especially in NonPaging Service Sector 1 . 0 % 2 . 5 %3 . 5 %6 . 1 %5 . 6 %8 . 8 %1 1 . 3 %1 4 . 5 %1997 1998 1999 2023Peration (%) Year CAGR 1022541998 1999 2023Fixed line Mobile 37% 83% Nonpaging CC seats (?000) Year CAGR = 129% Intensified petition 9192951241161081001996 1997 1998 1999? Most industries capacity over production ? Declining retail prices Year GDP index Retail price index Index Growing awareness of technology 2 . 491 9 . 84322181998 1999 2023Inter users (mio) ECommerce revenue (US$M) Gradually reduced tele fee Source: Jarding Fleming Research。 China Tele 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2023 2023Long distance (RMB/min) () () () () 800 km 800 km CC INDUSTRY WILL REACH 330370 K SEATS IN 2023 Illustration ? Identify major driving factors to CC adoption market petition and service awareness tele charges and phone peration ? Quantify relationships between drivers and CC adoption here we used US benchmark ? Project CC development by forecasting development of drivers ? Project CC peration in major user?s industries banking, tele, insurance … ? Add up numbers of each industry to give a CC market overview ? Interview industry experts or knowledgeable industry practitioners for their opinion of CC market growth system integrators and experts 2023 projection(1) (?000 seats) 158 132 145 2023 projection(1) (?000 seats) 368 337 . Driving factor analysis Bottomup analysis Experts opinions (1) Without paging pany TOPDOWN APPROACH REVEALS A PROMISING END GAME Phone line per 1000 people CC agents per 1000 people US benchmark Y = + Deflated tele fee index Phone line per 1000 people China phone line 10215074158368Year Nonpaging CC seats (?000) Source: US Telephone Statistics。 BCG analysis TELECOM IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CC USER NOW Bottomup Analysis Industry Tele Mobile Banking Insurance Post service Manufacturing Computer Airline Security Courier Home appliance TV selling Others Overall Projected seats CAGR 2023 25,000 7,667 4,545 2,000 1,600 1,501 800 594 257 240 240 300 6,675 51,419 2023 35,714 22,857 11,100 3,760 6,000 7,519 5,250 4,100 4,158 1,000 2,460 1,000 26,669 131,588 2023 41,667 50,000 47,000 9,850 20,833 25,184 14,000 9,600 32,600 3,333 8,800 2,000 71,965 336,832 202304 9% 31 % 25 % 17 % 39 % 50 % 60 % 62 % 101 % 43 % 79 % 35 % 41 % 26 % 202310 3% 14 % 27 % 17 % 23 % 22 % 18 % 15 % 41 % 22 % 24 % 12 % 18 % 17 % Source: interviews。 Interviews。 interviews, literature research Admindriven UNIQUE THREETIER DECISION MAKING PROCESS System Integrators Should Put Efforts to All Topdown initiatives Advocate improving service standard ? Make “service facilities” an evaluation criteria ? May suggest call center as an option Determine rolling out call centers in the corporation Raise a list of remended system integrators ? Present the list to branch panies Set a budget for different branch panies Decide call center size and sophistication based on corporate budget Negotiate and select a system integrator mostly suitable to the branch?s requirements SI should pay attention to Ministry?s recent service improvement incentive Ministry SI should approach promising corporate headquarters in advance to get the name on the list Corporate headquarter SI shou