【正文】 logistics market develops, the old logistics and warehousing facilities could no longer meet the requirements of the modern logistics industry and the demands for highquality logistics properties are increasing. While the challenging economic environment still plays a large role in business decisions, many panies continue to look for ways to consolidate distribution networks from inefficient, moving from older facilities into newer distribution centers to increase efficiencies.The subject project, situated within Chengdu Aviation Logistics Park in the southwest of Chengdu, is one of key logistics parks planned by the Chengdu government. The site has good accessibility to both city centre and surrounding districts and counties as it is near welldeveloped transportation network prising of highways, expressways and air transportation. The rental level of Class A warehouses ranges from RMB 1724 per sqm per month depending on different locations while that for Class B is about RMB 1116 sqm per month. From 2006 to 2008, the average rent experienced an annual growth rate of % to RMB per sqm per month. Up to 3Q2009, the rent increased by % to RMB Despite the large supply in future, we conservatively expect that the rent will still increase by 3% yoy, which is driven by the pletion of highquality warehouse facilities, increase of land price, construction cost and the demand from relocation (from East Railway Station), upgrading (for timeefficiency logistics facilities) and newsetup (for highquality logistics facilities). From 2007 to 2008, the vacancy rate averaged at 14% but increase to 26% as of 3Q2009. There is no distinct difference between Class A and Class B regarding to the vacancy number. With the pletion of four projects in 4Q09, we expect by end2009, the vacancy rate will soar to 47%. Based on assumption from historical data and demand projection, we estimate the vacancy rate will stay at 20% by end 2013.There are large supplies in the future, which will bring petition and affect the future investment yield of logistic ’s logistics market is still in its infancy and majority existing tenants are cost sensitive. It will take time for them to shift away from warehousing for storage purposes towards other higher value activities. As for the subject project, the high rental will undermine it’s petitiveness given the fact that there will be a number of petitors in Chengdu. In Chengdu Aviation Logistics Park, supportive facilities still lag behind including transportation to downtown, canteen and acmodation, which are expected to be pleted in 23 years.The rental level for the subject project will keep flat from 2009 to 2011, but increase after 2012 when the market bees more mature and the improvement of infrastructure and supportive facilities of the subject area is expected. It will take about 23 years for the subject project to be mostly occupied after its pletion. Key words: Chengdu Aviation Logistics Park, Rental、Supply、Vacancy目 錄第1章 緒 論 1 選題的意義和背景 1 文章結構 2第2章 物流倉儲設施發(fā)展環(huán)境 3 3 4 GDP發(fā)展趨勢 4 第一、二、三產業(yè)比重變化趨勢 5 外商直接投資變化趨勢 6 6 7 7 進出口額變化趨勢 7 7 9 9 112． 12 14 成都市政府物流發(fā)展規(guī)劃及扶持政策分析 15 15 16 16第3章 項目選址分析及物流倉儲市場分析 17 17 物流倉儲設施供應分析 17 物流倉儲設施需求分析 21 物流倉儲設施租金分析 24 物流倉儲設施競爭分析 24 物流倉儲設投資風險分析 24第4章 項目投資方案評價 26 投資方案評價指標 26（NPV） 26（IRR） 27 投資方案評價指標分析 28結 論 31參考文獻 33 西南交通大學與國立南澳大學MBA學位論文 第35頁 第1章 緒 論 選題的意義和背景高效的物流體系是中國經濟持續(xù)增長和現代化的關鍵因素。預計主項目的租金自2009年到2011年將會保持平穩(wěn)。未來大量的供應量會給市場帶來激烈的競爭，以及影響物流物業(yè)的投資收益回報率。2009年3季度，增長為26%。自2006年到2008年，%，；至2009年3季度，%。很多物流公司繼續(xù)開拓新的配送方式、遷入符合現代物流業(yè)發(fā)展的高標準的新倉庫以此整合低效率的分銷網絡，并提高物流效率。盡管如此，經濟增長也呈現出積極跡象，%。（請在以上方框內打“√”）學位論文作者簽名： 指導老師簽名：日期： 日期：摘 要成都位于四川省中部，是中國西部地區(qū)重要城市。 西南交通大學與國立南澳大學MBA學位論文 第VIII頁 西 南 交 通 大 學——國 立 南 澳 大 學工商管理碩士（MBA）學位論文成都市物流倉儲設施市場投資分析Classified Index:（此處填國內圖書分類號）:（此處填國際圖書分類號）Southwest Jiaotong University amp。本學位論文屬于1．保密√□，在 3 年解密后適用本授權書；2．不保密□，使用本授權書。自08年4季度金融危機爆發(fā)之后，受國內外租賃需求的影響，工業(yè)增長率放緩。隨著物流市場的發(fā)展和對高規(guī)格倉庫的需求增長，陳舊的倉庫和落后的物流技術逐漸被淘汰。隨著倉儲需求的不斷增大，倉庫租金快速上漲。從2007年到2008年，市面上倉庫的平均空置率保持在14%。根據歷史數據和項目規(guī)劃，研究預計到2013年底，倉庫空置率將保持在20%左右。成都航空港物流園區(qū)的配套設置依然不完善，例如通往城區(qū)的交通，餐飲和住宿，其建成時間需要23年。關鍵詞：成都航空物流園、租金、供應量、空置率AbstractChengdu’s GDP, retail sales, FDI and cargo volume has always maintained stable growth rate in past decade. Meanwhile, the global financial crisis did impact Chengdu industry as the annual growth shrank. Starting form 4Q08 right after the crisis broke out, the growth rate cut down influenced by lessening demand from both domestic and overseas。成都物流倉儲市場處于逐步成熟過程中，如何投資該非成熟市場，本文從宏觀、微觀層面逐步分析，以證明該市場的投資價值。珠江三角洲和環(huán)渤海地區(qū)（各21%）目前的集中程度都低于長江三角洲。此外，只有廈門和沈陽超過了1%的比例。該地區(qū)目前已大量投資于道路、鐵路和港口基礎設施。上述的三個主要地區(qū)擁有最好的運輸基礎設施、最大的消費者市場和最深的供應商網絡。隨著大量外資企業(yè)的涌入和國內企業(yè)運營現代化程度的提高，