最低工資的影響-全文預(yù)覽
【正文】 Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Deere, Donald, Kevin M. Murphy, and Finis Welch. 1995. “Employment and the 19901991 MinimumWage Hike.” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings. Vol. 85, No. 2 (May), pp. 23237.Katz, Lawrence F., and Alan B. Krueger. 1992. “The Effect of the Minimum Wage on the Fast Food Industry.” Industrial and Krueger, Alan B. and Pischke, JornSteffen., “The Effect of Social Security on Labor Supply: A Cohort Analysis of the Notch Generation.” Labor Relations Review, Vol. 46, No. 1 (October), pp. 621.Neumark, David, and William Wascher. 1992. “Employment Effects of Minimum and Subminimum Wages: Panel Data on State Minimum Wage Laws.” Industrial and Labor Relations Review. Vol. 46, No. 1 (October), pp. 5581.Neumark, David, and William Wascher. 2004. “Minimum Wages, Labor Market Institutions, and Youth Employment: A CrossNational Analysis.” Industrial and Labor Relations Review, Vol. 57, No. 2 (January), pp. 22348.Neumark David, William Wascher,” Minimum Wages And Employment: A Review Of Evidence From The New Minimum Wage Research” Working paper 12663 NBER 2006Orazem, Peter F., and J. Peter Mattila. 2002. “Minimum Wage Effects on Hours, Employment, and Number of Firms: The Iowa Case.” Journal of Labor Research. Vol. 23, No. 1 (Winter), pp. 323.Yuen, Terence. 2003. “The Effect of Minimum Wages on Youth Employment in Canada: A PanelStudy.” Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 38, No. 3 (Summer), pp. 64772.Zavodny, Madeline. 2000. “The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Hours.” LabourEconomics. Vol. 7, No. 6 (November), pp. 729750.《最低工資規(guī)定》勞動(dòng)和社會(huì)保障部令第21號(hào)《論最低工資制度的完善》江蘇省社會(huì)勞動(dòng)保障網(wǎng)公告16 / 16。而老年人和青年人有更大的傾向選擇放棄工作，回家養(yǎng)老或上學(xué)。2）最低工資的提高有很多的影響因素，雖然上升的幅度內(nèi)生性雖然較小，但是無法排除是由于某一年某一個(gè)地區(qū)的特有沖擊，造成了最低工資的調(diào)整，使其有一定的內(nèi)生性。在此我也指出一些模型中潛在的缺陷。表1Effect of Minwage on EmploymentvariablecoefficientP|z|dy/dxaboveMWa *** aboveMWb aboveMWc aboveMWd *** betweenMWa betweenMWb betweenMWc *** betweenMWd *** belowMWa * belowMWb belowMWc *** belowMWd ill *** urbanhh urbanresi *** hourwage ** race * _cons *** time dummyyes region dummyyes type of workyes Pseudo R2 Source: CHNS, 19832006, matched survey to survey. Notes: Equations estimated by maximum likelihood logit. effects on the probability of employment in year t+1 given employment in year talso controled for :age,experience,experience squared, gender,education Sample size: 6441. 五、 結(jié)論總的來說，在低水平勞動(dòng)力群體中，年長(zhǎng)的人群和沒有太多工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)的年輕人群，會(huì)有比較高的可能由于最低工資的提高而被解雇，或者從正式用工轉(zhuǎn)化成非正式合同者而不再受法律保護(hù)。其他的控制變量中，我們可以看到生病會(huì)導(dǎo)致失業(yè)的可能性上升，而少數(shù)民族成員會(huì)比漢族更容易找到工作。這即可能是由于2530歲正當(dāng)盛年，最低工資對(duì)其就業(yè)影響較小造成的。而且無論處在哪一個(gè)工資組，最低工資對(duì)最老的人口的影響，都比其他的組大。c年齡組的系數(shù)效果最明顯，隨著工資下降，最低工資的系數(shù)從不顯著到顯著。這個(gè)方程不僅可以捕捉改效應(yīng)，而且通過與年齡組的交互項(xiàng)還可以看到由于年齡的不同產(chǎn)生的擠出效應(yīng)的不同。對(duì)每個(gè)省每年所選取的抽樣地區(qū)的一攬子物品的價(jià)格，區(qū)分城市和農(nóng)村兩種。因此，將他們作為參照組，就是在和“正常人群”比較。除此之外，模型還控制了年啞變量，省啞變量和個(gè)人從事的工作種類啞變量 工作種類分為：技術(shù)，機(jī)關(guān)，工人，軍人，服務(wù)業(yè)和其他行業(yè)。最后，將上述16個(gè)變量都乘以MWt+1與MWt消漲后的變化量。方程的第一項(xiàng)是我們關(guān)注的最低工資對(duì)就業(yè)狀態(tài)的作用，它是一組共16個(gè)變量。在本文的模型中，假設(shè)將每次調(diào)查和下一次對(duì)同一樣本的調(diào)查時(shí)間分別稱為t 與t+1。對(duì)于模型仍舊存在的，且難以解決的一些缺陷，作者將在結(jié)論部分逐一指出。四、 實(shí)證部分前文已指出,對(duì)最低工資問題的建模，目前有很多爭(zhēng)論。他們?cè)谧畹凸べY標(biāo)準(zhǔn)調(diào)整前后，分別打電話給100家餐廳，詢問雇傭人員中全職和打零工的人數(shù)，以及非管理層人員的起付工資。如果數(shù)據(jù)允許，也可以考慮用配對(duì)（propensity score matching）的方法構(gòu)造面板。所以一般采用引入年齡的分組與收入分組變量的交互項(xiàng)，觀察不同組別的效應(yīng)。微觀長(zhǎng)期面板數(shù)據(jù)長(zhǎng)期微觀面板數(shù)據(jù)自然比宏觀數(shù)據(jù)更有優(yōu)勢(shì)。這個(gè)方法十分巧妙的利用人的異質(zhì)性減少遺漏變量偏誤的影響。（Neumark and Wascher1992 Neumark, David, and William Wascher. 1992. “Employment Effects of Minimum and Subminimum Wages: Panel Data on State Minimum Wage Laws.” Industrial and Labor Relations Review. Vol. 46, No. 1 (October), pp. 5581用了13
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