【正文】 ............................. 74 求解各評價指標的權重 ........................................ 74 本章小結 ......................................................... 79 第 6 章 基于集對分析的風險綜合評價方法研究 ............................ 82 基于五元聯(lián)系數(shù)的風險綜合評價方法 .................................. 82 集對理論概述 ................................................ 82 風險的同異反評價模型 ........................................ 83 風險的趨勢分析 .............................................. 84 集對勢 ...................................................... 86 應用舉例 .................................................... 86 勢級的風險矩陣表征方法 ...................................... 92 基于三元聯(lián)系數(shù)矩陣的風險綜合評價方法 .............................. 93 III 失效后果與失效可 能性的同異反評價模型 ........................ 93 基于聯(lián)系數(shù)的風險矩陣 ........................................ 94 聯(lián)系數(shù)的態(tài)勢排序 ............................................ 94 風險的趨勢分 析 .............................................. 94 應用舉例 .................................................... 96 本章小結 ......................................................... 98 第 7 章 城市燃氣輸配管道的風險管理 ................................... 100 城市燃氣輸配管道風險管理的概念及主要環(huán)節(jié) ........................ 100 風險評估 ................................................... 101 制定風險控制對策 ........................................... 102 實施控制對策 ............................................... 103 建立城市燃氣管道的地理信息系統(tǒng) .................................. 104 本章小結 ........................................................ 105 第 8 章 結論與展望 ................................................. 105 本文的研究成果 .................................................. 105 不足與展望 ...................................................... 106 致 謝 ........................................................... 107 參考文獻 .......................................................... 108 附錄 1 ............................................................ 116 附錄 2 ............................................................ 117 附錄 3 ............................................................ 119 附錄 4 ............................................................ 123 攻讀博士學位期間發(fā)表的論文及科研成果 ................................ 125 西南石油大學博士研究生學位論文 1 第 1 章 緒論 問題的提出 城市燃氣是一種清潔、優(yōu)質、高效能源。 關鍵詞 ： 城市燃氣輸配管道 ； 風險評價； 故障樹 分析 ；模糊 一致矩陣 ；集對分析 ABSTRACT With the accelerated process of urbanization in our country,remarkable advances have been made in city gas the same time,pipeline leakage and explosion are happening around with increasing frequency,which does not only result in heavy loss in the lives and properties of the people,but also leads to a significant influence on a healthy development of city gas business in ,how to scientifically identify,evaluate and effectively control the risk of city gas transmission and distribution pipelines had already bee an urgent task to be tackled in city gas engineering. Based on a systematical analysis of risk assessment of the city gas pipelines, the present paper makes an integrated use of such related theories, methods and technology as city gas distribution projects, risk assessment, fuzzy math, set pair theory analysis, etc., to conduct a detailed study on risk identification and evaluation methods of gas pipelines. Hopefully, the author intends to bring out some suggestions and provide technical assistance in the pipeline construction and operation management. The main results of this paper are as follows: (1) After giving a prehensive analysis of the structural features of city gas transmission and distribution pipeline, the author firstly establishes a fault tree for city gas pipeline failure factors with the adoption of Fault Tree analysis, and then presents a formula to calculate the importance rating of basic pipeline events on the basis of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. (2) Secondly, for consequence analysis, a leakage, explosion and damage model of city gas transmission and distribution pipeline is analyzed. Practical instances are also simulated to find gas leaking concentration range, as well as the damage radius by the light of leakage. (3) Starting with the four aspects: third party damage, corrosion, design and operation, the present paper establishes a failure factors evaluation index system and its , starting with the two aspects: product harmfulness and diffusion effect, the present paper establishes a failure consequence evaluation index system and its grade. for city gas transmission and distribution pipeline, presents a method for determining the weight of city gas transmission and distribution pipeline index based on generalized consistency transformation of the matrix. (4) In view of the certainty and uncertainty in the risk assessment of gas pipeline, as well as the static characteristic of the conventional methods, the Set pair analysis is introduced to deal with the risk evaluation based on fiveelement connection number. The evaluation can not only be used to perform an analysis of possible risk situation, but also predict its developing trend. (5) While adopting the threeelement connection number to evaluate the risk of city gas transmission and distribution pipeline, we introduce quantitative elements into conventional risk matrix and propose a new risk representation method. Therefore, a threeelement connection number of the risk object can be obtained by the multiplication of threeelement connection number of failure probability and failure consequence, hence to determine the tendency grade of evaluation object, the risk size and its developing trend. Key words： city gas transmission and distribution pipeline。 （ 4） 考慮到 城市燃氣輸配管道 風險評價時信息的確定與不確定的特征，以及常規(guī)方法風險評價時的靜態(tài)性，運用集對分析方法研究了城市燃氣輸配管道的風險評價，提出了基于五元聯(lián)系數(shù)的風險評價方法 。 （ 2） 為分析 輸配管道燃氣泄漏的后果， 闡述 了 城市 燃氣 輸配管道的泄漏、爆炸及傷害模型；通過實例 模擬了 燃氣泄漏 后擴散的濃度范圍 ， 以及根據(jù)泄漏量確定出 其