【正文】 ............................. 74 求解各評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重 ........................................ 74 本章小結(jié) ......................................................... 79 第 6 章 基于集對(duì)分析的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法研究 ............................ 82 基于五元聯(lián)系數(shù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法 .................................. 82 集對(duì)理論概述 ................................................ 82 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的同異反評(píng)價(jià)模型 ........................................ 83 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的趨勢(shì)分析 .............................................. 84 集對(duì)勢(shì) ...................................................... 86 應(yīng)用舉例 .................................................... 86 勢(shì)級(jí)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣表征方法 ...................................... 92 基于三元聯(lián)系數(shù)矩陣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法 .............................. 93 III 失效后果與失效可 能性的同異反評(píng)價(jià)模型 ........................ 93 基于聯(lián)系數(shù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣 ........................................ 94 聯(lián)系數(shù)的態(tài)勢(shì)排序 ............................................ 94 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的趨勢(shì)分 析 .............................................. 94 應(yīng)用舉例 .................................................... 96 本章小結(jié) ......................................................... 98 第 7 章 城市燃?xì)廨斉涔艿赖娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 ................................... 100 城市燃?xì)廨斉涔艿里L(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的概念及主要環(huán)節(jié) ........................ 100 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 ................................................... 101 制定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制對(duì)策 ........................................... 102 實(shí)施控制對(duì)策 ............................................... 103 建立城市燃?xì)夤艿赖牡乩硇畔⑾到y(tǒng) .................................. 104 本章小結(jié) ........................................................ 105 第 8 章 結(jié)論與展望 ................................................. 105 本文的研究成果 .................................................. 105 不足與展望 ...................................................... 106 致 謝 ........................................................... 107 參考文獻(xiàn) .......................................................... 108 附錄 1 ............................................................ 116 附錄 2 ............................................................ 117 附錄 3 ............................................................ 119 附錄 4 ............................................................ 123 攻讀博士學(xué)位期間發(fā)表的論文及科研成果 ................................ 125 西南石油大學(xué)博士研究生學(xué)位論文 1 第 1 章 緒論 問(wèn)題的提出 城市燃?xì)馐且环N清潔、優(yōu)質(zhì)、高效能源。 關(guān)鍵詞 ： 城市燃?xì)廨斉涔艿?； 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)； 故障樹(shù) 分析 ；模糊 一致矩陣 ；集對(duì)分析 ABSTRACT With the accelerated process of urbanization in our country,remarkable advances have been made in city gas the same time,pipeline leakage and explosion are happening around with increasing frequency,which does not only result in heavy loss in the lives and properties of the people,but also leads to a significant influence on a healthy development of city gas business in ,how to scientifically identify,evaluate and effectively control the risk of city gas transmission and distribution pipelines had already bee an urgent task to be tackled in city gas engineering. Based on a systematical analysis of risk assessment of the city gas pipelines, the present paper makes an integrated use of such related theories, methods and technology as city gas distribution projects, risk assessment, fuzzy math, set pair theory analysis, etc., to conduct a detailed study on risk identification and evaluation methods of gas pipelines. Hopefully, the author intends to bring out some suggestions and provide technical assistance in the pipeline construction and operation management. The main results of this paper are as follows: (1) After giving a prehensive analysis of the structural features of city gas transmission and distribution pipeline, the author firstly establishes a fault tree for city gas pipeline failure factors with the adoption of Fault Tree analysis, and then presents a formula to calculate the importance rating of basic pipeline events on the basis of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. (2) Secondly, for consequence analysis, a leakage, explosion and damage model of city gas transmission and distribution pipeline is analyzed. Practical instances are also simulated to find gas leaking concentration range, as well as the damage radius by the light of leakage. (3) Starting with the four aspects: third party damage, corrosion, design and operation, the present paper establishes a failure factors evaluation index system and its , starting with the two aspects: product harmfulness and diffusion effect, the present paper establishes a failure consequence evaluation index system and its grade. for city gas transmission and distribution pipeline, presents a method for determining the weight of city gas transmission and distribution pipeline index based on generalized consistency transformation of the matrix. (4) In view of the certainty and uncertainty in the risk assessment of gas pipeline, as well as the static characteristic of the conventional methods, the Set pair analysis is introduced to deal with the risk evaluation based on fiveelement connection number. The evaluation can not only be used to perform an analysis of possible risk situation, but also predict its developing trend. (5) While adopting the threeelement connection number to evaluate the risk of city gas transmission and distribution pipeline, we introduce quantitative elements into conventional risk matrix and propose a new risk representation method. Therefore, a threeelement connection number of the risk object can be obtained by the multiplication of threeelement connection number of failure probability and failure consequence, hence to determine the tendency grade of evaluation object, the risk size and its developing trend. Key words： city gas transmission and distribution pipeline。 （ 4） 考慮到 城市燃?xì)廨斉涔艿?風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)時(shí)信息的確定與不確定的特征，以及常規(guī)方法風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)時(shí)的靜態(tài)性，運(yùn)用集對(duì)分析方法研究了城市燃?xì)廨斉涔艿赖娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)，提出了基于五元聯(lián)系數(shù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法 。 （ 2） 為分析 輸配管道燃?xì)庑孤┑暮蠊?闡述 了 城市 燃?xì)?輸配管道的泄漏、爆炸及傷害模型；通過(guò)實(shí)例 模擬了 燃?xì)庑孤?后擴(kuò)散的濃度范圍 ， 以及根據(jù)泄漏量確定出 其