外文翻譯----美國農(nóng)作物保險計劃的政治經(jīng)濟學-全文預覽
【正文】 oo high a price to pay for potential ACRE payments. In this case, note that the 2020 ACRE price will be even higher than the 2020 price so farmers would know that their 2020 ACRE guarantee would be even higher than the 2020 guarantee so that there is little downside of signing up in 2020. If many farmers participate in ACRE, then marketing loans and countercyclical payments will not play an important role in the next farm. But before we can conclude that all farmers will choose ACRE, we must consider the impact on the ACRE guarantee if market prices fall in 2020 and in subsequent years. It could be that the ACRE guarantee falls so low in 2020 and 2020 that it makes the current program more advantageous. However, a provision in the ACRE program does not allow the guarantee to increase or decrease more than 10% in any year. This means that the 2020 guarantee can only drop to % of the 2020 guarantee. Because the 5year Olympic average of state yields will not typically increase or decrease a dramatic amount, it is reasonable to ask whether an ACRE price of % of the 2020 ACRE price makes marketing loan gains and countercyclical payments more attractive than ACRE. If the 2020 and 2020 WASDE estimates of marketing year prices are true so that the 2020 ACRE prices e in at $ and $ for corn and soybeans, then % of these prices are $ and $, respectively. This is the minimum ACRE price that could be reached in the 2020 farm bill period. At these ACRE prices, the benefit to ACRE is still positive. Thus, it seems that ACRE dominates the current program for corn and soybean farmers. This suggests that if 2020 market prices are anywhere close to where WASDE projects them to be, then all farmers will have an incentive to choose ACRE. Future Implications The crop insurance lobby was successful at defeating area revenue insurance programs that would have replaced or been integrated with crop insurance. Instead we have the ACRE program that because it is backward looking has the potential for making dramatically higher payments than if a forwardlooking program like Group Risk Ine Protection had been adopted instead. Although its supporters claim that the program is more market oriented than programs with a fixed guaranteed price, this does not mean that it is less distortionary than current programs because of the potential for inthemoney revenue guarantees at planting time. These inthe money guarantees could imply difficulty in meeting WTO mitments if price levels continue higher for a year or two and then fall dramatically, perhaps because of a rethinking of US ethanol policy. It is likely that when the vast majority of farmers choose ACRE in the years ahead, they will find that statelevel revenue guarantees are not the same as countyor farmlevel guarantees. That is, very low state yields that trigger payments will likely be associated with farmlevel losses, but there will be years in which farm level losses occur, but state losses do not. This will increase pressure in the next farm bill for farmers to push for a more disaggregate guarantee, perhaps at the county level. In addition, the backwardlooking pricesetting mechanism will be difficult to defend. Using futures prices is a much more transparent and marketoriented means of setting program guarantees. Finally, ACRE will likely lead to a wholesale reevaluation of the crop insurance program as the primary means of delivering risk management support to farmers. Farmers will find that risk management can be delivered from the farm program at much lower cost by simply taking the systemic risk out of the crop insurance program and covering this risk in the farm bill. This has the potential for being a much more costeffective approach than the current approach of insuring both pool able and systemic risk in the farm bill. 譯 文 美國農(nóng)作物保險計劃的政治經(jīng)濟學 摘要 ： 文章 分析了美國農(nóng)業(yè)保險的背景，然后從納稅人支持農(nóng)作物保險服務，行政和操作補貼，凈承銷的收益，保費補貼四個方面對美國農(nóng)業(yè)保險的現(xiàn)狀作了闡述，然后建立了一個模型，最后對農(nóng)業(yè)保險在美國發(fā)展的前景進行了描述，認為農(nóng)業(yè)保險講在美國取得全國性的成功。小麥和大豆的目標價格稍高，豆類等有稍低的貸款利率?，F(xiàn)在，他們賭注的既得利益是
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