【正文】 chain is a plex system, which involves multiple entities enpassing activities of moving goods and adding value from the raw material stage to the final delivery stage [32]. Different entities in a supply chain operate subject to different sets of constraints and objectives, which are highly interdependent when it es to improving performance of the supply chain in terms of objectives, such as ontime delivery, quality assurance, and cost minimization. Therefore, performance of any entity in a supply chain depends on the performance of others and their willingness and ability to coordinate activities within the supply chain [10, 57]. Advances in information technology enable information availability [6], which facilitates munication, coordination, and collaboration among supply chain partners through information sharing [16]. Supply chain management literature reveals that through better information linkages among business partners, various deficiencies, which include long lead times, large batch sizes, high inventory levels, slow new product design and development, and long order fulfillment cycles, can be mitigated or reduced [8, 9, 17, 19, 31, 38]. Even though information sharing can be extremely beneficial, it is not sufficient to fully reduce the impact of uncertainty inherent to supply chain dynamics. For instance, since Forrester’s work on the bullwhip effect (1961), there has been a long debate and unsettled dispute on whether or not sharing information is always beneficial to avoid it [4]. In addition, researchers have also noted that the benefits of information sharing depend on the type of information, as well as the demand patterns and capacity constraints [9, 10, 17, 31, 38]. In this study, the effect of information sharing among business partners on ontime delivery rate and total cost is investigated via simulation of a generic, hypotheticalsupply chain model. While information sharing in the supply chain has been researched extensively, the effect of sharing of resource reliability information (., occurrence of various failures and equipment breakdowns) on supply chain performance has not. The experimental factors are (1) capacity tightness (three levels), (2) reliability (three levels), and (3) information sharing modes, which are sharing of reliability information, customer demand, and inventory level. This paper is anized as follows: A literature survey on supply chain dynamics is presented in Section 2. Experimental factors, along with a brief literature on information sharing, are outlined in Section 3. Development of the model is explained in Section 4. Experimental results are discussed in Sections 5 and 6. Conclusions are presented in Section 7. 2 Supply chain dynamics Supply chain management has been studied by many researchers. In addition to traditional supply chain management topics, such as operational planning, strategic planning, and logistics, the literature includes a variety of studies that investigate supply chain management from different perspectives: supply works [45], chaos perspective[32], risk management [11, 53], supply chain dynamics [14, 57], uncertainty [19, 29, 61, 66], classification and taxonomy issues [28, 36], and emerce [26].For an extensive review of the relevant literature, please refer to Min and Zhou [46], Huang et al. [31], Goknur and Turan [25], and Chan and Chan [10]. Making decisions in a supply chain involves a feedback process triggering interaction between system entities。 is unable to accurately predict the impact of possible control actions on supply chain behavior。 lacks information about (or understanding of) the supply chain or its environment。因此，制造企業(yè)要在業(yè)務(wù)可視性和信息共享能力方面以及供應(yīng)鏈方面利用信息技 術(shù)工具、電子商務(wù)和先進(jìn)技術(shù)（如射頻識別技術(shù)）的功效，而不僅僅在它們的能力水平方面，以獲得競爭優(yōu)勢。 總之，隨著產(chǎn)能富裕度從過剩變到全負(fù)荷，總成本增加了，準(zhǔn)時(shí)交貨率下降了。產(chǎn)能過剩可以消除信息共享或可靠性的需要，雖然產(chǎn)能獲取成本高昂。信息共享的好處是低成本的實(shí)時(shí)數(shù)據(jù)和高成本的實(shí)物成本的轉(zhuǎn)換。 INV和 CD信息共享模型的主要區(qū)別是通過減少需求放大而帶來的持有成本節(jié)約，而 RI信息共享模式認(rèn)為這些成本節(jié)約不是額外信息的作用。 7 結(jié)論 在本項(xiàng)研究中，我們用模擬的方法對供應(yīng)鏈中業(yè)務(wù)伙伴之間的信息共 享對準(zhǔn)時(shí)交貨率的影響做了研究。 產(chǎn)能富裕度和可靠性對準(zhǔn)時(shí)交貨率的相互影響是輕微的，因?yàn)槟芰λ綖?，隨著能力 緊繃，獲益斜率和和截距下移。 產(chǎn)能富裕度和信息共享模型對準(zhǔn)時(shí)交貨率的相互影響有相同的斜率，但 CD和 INV信息共享模式在所有產(chǎn)能富裕度水平上有不同的截距。 準(zhǔn)時(shí)交貨率 對準(zhǔn)時(shí)交貨率的主要的相互影響在統(tǒng)計(jì)上非常明顯，分別如 Figs. 5 and 6所示。然而，在產(chǎn)能吃緊的環(huán)境下，可靠性對總成本很重要。 當(dāng)能力在 靠性水平，產(chǎn)能富裕度和可靠性對總成本的相互影響是很少的。隨產(chǎn)能富裕度上升， RI對產(chǎn)能富裕度和信息共享模型的相互影響對總成本減少影響明顯。最終，可靠性對總成本的主要影響是當(dāng)可靠性下降時(shí)增加成本。當(dāng)能力充裕時(shí)，在 和 ，產(chǎn)能富裕度對總成本的主要影響很小，但是當(dāng)能力緊張時(shí)，總成 本以極快的速度增長。持有成本的系數(shù)只能小于交易成本的系數(shù)，否則，只有交易成本會發(fā)生，唯一的庫存將在生產(chǎn)過程中。延遲虧損成本是向下游供 應(yīng)鏈實(shí)體供貨遲于指定的應(yīng)供貨日期造成的成本。準(zhǔn)時(shí)交貨率是準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成的交貨除以總的交貨數(shù)量。 采用 95%的置信區(qū) 間經(jīng)過方差分析來檢測主要影響、雙向互動(dòng)影響和三向相互影響的顯著性水平。不定期故障指數(shù)為參數(shù) 1a，它代表平均故障發(fā)生率。模型參數(shù)對每個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)組合都是相同的；因此，任何差別都是產(chǎn)能富裕度水平、信息共享模型和可靠性的結(jié)果。生產(chǎn)率是不隨時(shí)間改變的，但卻隨產(chǎn)能富裕度而改變。我們用了一個(gè)完整的 33階乘來變換 Table2中所列的產(chǎn)能富裕度、信息共享模型 和可信度水平試驗(yàn)因素。 制造和裝配能力及分銷商能力唯一的 RI 可控制戰(zhàn)略可以實(shí)施是替代運(yùn)輸模式來減少延期。一旦一家供應(yīng)商的庫存用完，那么就必須使用替代供應(yīng)商。 決策過程由故障激發(fā)。 可靠性信息共享（ RI） 程序假定存在一個(gè)協(xié)定，供應(yīng)商在可以選擇付出消費(fèi)成本購買額外單位產(chǎn)品時(shí)生產(chǎn)一定百分比訂單的產(chǎn)品。這一安全庫存水平覆蓋了 %的可能庫存狀態(tài)。 客戶需求信息共享（ CD）它包括使用實(shí)時(shí)客戶需求信息來決定生產(chǎn)和庫存水平。然后，供應(yīng)商可以根據(jù)以前的庫存狀況計(jì)劃新一天的生產(chǎn)。當(dāng)客戶需求信息和庫存安全水平、生產(chǎn)和運(yùn)輸計(jì)劃混合使用 時(shí)，共享庫存信息影響生產(chǎn)和運(yùn)輸計(jì)劃。然而，由于基于客戶訂單在制造和裝配能力產(chǎn)生的上產(chǎn)生的延期差異，只維持應(yīng)裝運(yùn)成品庫存。這一假象供應(yīng)鏈模型保持雙供給來源政策，它允許使用替代供應(yīng)商。供應(yīng)商可靠性信息被用來改變運(yùn)輸提前期以滿足客戶交貨時(shí)間或者當(dāng)目前供應(yīng)商無法及時(shí)履行訂單時(shí)與替代供應(yīng)商實(shí)時(shí)修改訂單，實(shí)時(shí)訂單修改是為當(dāng)發(fā)生非常規(guī)故障時(shí)保證有一個(gè)替代供應(yīng)來源。顧客需求信息共享比所有啟發(fā)式和不穩(wěn)定需求訂單信息共享表現(xiàn)跟顯著。然而，如果零售商預(yù)測的需求與實(shí)際顧客需求相關(guān)性不強(qiáng)，則不共享信息和共享預(yù)測的需求信息的績效統(tǒng)計(jì)上沒有什么顯著區(qū)別。部分信息共享分銷商與第一制造商分 享訂單預(yù)測信息。同樣，庫存信息共享明顯比訂單信息共享更好。此外，當(dāng)提前期長、顧客需求變動(dòng)大或者當(dāng)顧客需求隨時(shí)間自動(dòng)推移的時(shí)候，顧客需求信息共享的優(yōu)勢更加明顯。雖然容量和信息共享都在任何情況下是顯著的，但卻沒有對相互影響進(jìn)行研究。供應(yīng)商 有效性方法檢查無效對直接上游買方的長期影響。對全球物流系統(tǒng)的回顧表明很少有研究將供應(yīng)鏈可靠性作為一個(gè)不確定性因素。 可靠性 對供應(yīng)鏈物流部分的可靠性罕 有人研究。反之，若 Ctightness小于 1，則能力不足以滿足需求。 3 實(shí)驗(yàn)因素 在該研究中，我們通過用 3個(gè)試驗(yàn)因素模擬調(diào)研了業(yè)務(wù)伙伴信息共享對供應(yīng)鏈績效的影響：（ 1）產(chǎn)能富裕度（分 3個(gè)層級）（ 2）可靠性（ 3個(gè)層級）和（ 3）信息共享模型（可靠性信息共享、顧客需求信息共享和庫存水平信息共享）。 供應(yīng)鏈信息共享的文獻(xiàn)包括了各種各樣的研究，從需求信息共享到生產(chǎn)信息共享再到庫存信息共享。 不確定性和信息短缺描述了典型的供應(yīng)鏈環(huán)境。顧客需求由消費(fèi)者的消費(fèi)習(xí)慣、消費(fèi)者期望和產(chǎn)品知識驅(qū)動(dòng)。維修影響平均故障時(shí)間（ MTTF）；一次，可用性受維修影響。我們建議用定性評估供應(yīng)鏈不確定性、戰(zhàn)略和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)減輕來解決供應(yīng)鏈不確定性。廣為人知的是，過程外包減少對一個(gè)生產(chǎn)企業(yè)整體過程的控制。生產(chǎn)設(shè)備的專業(yè)化導(dǎo)致規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)。 Vander Vorst 和 Beulens對供應(yīng)鏈不確定性解釋如下：