【正文】 門的前提：勞動密集；較高工資水平；勞動力被雇傭的條件是邊際產(chǎn)品與工資相等 presupposition of capitalist sector: laborintensive, higher wage, precondition of employment: marginal products is equal to wages 農(nóng)業(yè)部門的工資將開始上升，并導(dǎo)致工業(yè)部門的工資上升，經(jīng)濟進入自我持續(xù)增長的新階段 農(nóng)業(yè)部門的剩余對發(fā)展的貢獻 The level of wages in the capitalist sector depends upon the earnings in the subsistence sector Complementary of Fei and Ranis 32 33 經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的工業(yè)化路徑 Industrialization of economic development 現(xiàn)代化部門擴大，傳統(tǒng)部門縮小 Expansion of Modern sector: capitalist accumulation through prourban industrialization dependent on capital imports from the West 農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化（發(fā)揮農(nóng)業(yè)的作用）Modernization of agriculture 34 （六）舒爾茨農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展理論 Agricultural Development 舒爾茨 1964《改造傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)》 Schults 傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)的特征 Traditional Agricultural 小農(nóng)的理性選擇 rational choices of peasants 勞動的邊際生產(chǎn)率不等于零 Marginal productivity of labor is not zero 投資的收益率很低 low return of investment 把傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)改造成為現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)的措施 Modernization of agriculture 健全的價格體系 price mechanism 政府大力推廣農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)技術(shù) extension of agri. technology 發(fā)展教育，提高農(nóng)民的文化技術(shù)水平 education 取消大農(nóng)場，推廣家庭農(nóng)場 family farm 35 （七）兩缺口模型 Twogap Theory 錢納里和布魯諾 Chenery and Bruno, 1962, 1966 基本框架 central logic of the model aggregate ine=aggregate expenditure Y=C+I+(XM) Y總收入 aggregate ine， C總消費 total consumption， I總投資 total investment， X和 M各代表出口總值和進口總值expenditures on export and imports， (XM) 為外貿(mào)純收入 Net ine of foreign trade Y can be defined as savings S plus C I – S = M – X 儲蓄缺口 Domestic savings gap 外匯缺口 foreign exchange gap 36 應(yīng)用 utilization 作為計劃技術(shù)加以應(yīng)用，分析消費者、儲蓄者、投資者、進口者、出口者的愿望并根據(jù)實際情況試圖影響這些愿望 As a planning technique, the twogap theory was utilized by planners to analyze the independent desires of consumers/savers, investors, importers and exporters and to attempt to influence their desires in the light of domestic economic realities in conjunction with external economic circumstances 價格政策：匯率 exchange rate 稅收政策 tax incentives 利率政策 interest rate policies 37 兩缺口的調(diào)整和平衡 Balance of twogap ? 消極調(diào)整：減少投資彌補儲蓄缺口； negative adjustment 或減少進口（進口替代）彌補外匯缺口 ? 平衡兩缺口的積極行動：引進外資 positive adjustment ? 效應(yīng)：供給 進口資源不需增加出口支付減輕外匯壓力 需求 投資不需國內(nèi)儲蓄提供，減輕儲蓄壓力 Effects: supply and demand ? 長遠：助長出口、提高儲蓄、增強自我發(fā)展 Longterm impacts 38 （八）進口替代、出口促進及幼稚工業(yè)論： ISI, Export Promotion and Infant Industry 普雷維什 辛格假說 , Raoul Prebisch’ s and Hans Singer, PrebischSinger Hypothesis, 1950 中心 外圍的結(jié)構(gòu)分析方法 Centerperiphery 中心：制成品生產(chǎn) center: finished products 外圍：初級產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn) periphery: primary products 外圍國家初級產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易條件不斷惡化 worsening terms of trade in periphery countries 外圍國家的社會基礎(chǔ)“特權(quán)消費社會”同中心引進的制度發(fā)生尖銳矛盾。 1982年任美國經(jīng)濟學(xué)會會長。阿瑟 Savings 23 ? 意義 Implication 規(guī)模經(jīng)濟效益：成本降低；外在經(jīng)濟 The Economies of Scale: internal (more efficient division of labor within a firm) and external (crossfertilization amongst firms in an industry) ? 不足 Failure failed to replicate the European success story in the Third World 過分強調(diào)工業(yè)化和資本的作用 investment is not the only ponent, . human resources 社會分攤資本并非都是不可分的 questions of assumptions 大規(guī)模投資不切合實際 ignored questions of ownership of capital imports from the West 忽略了增長中的分配問題 ignored question of distribution of valueadded generated in the growth process Ulterior political and ideological motives 24 （四）涓流機制與不平衡增長理論 The trickledown Theory and Western Capitalism Our subject matter is growth, not distribution. Lewis, 1955 1. 不公平有利于投資和增長 因為：富有使收入大部分用于儲蓄和投資 窮人的收入多用于消費 儲蓄和投資有利于增長 增長使收入通過市場機制下滲 Accelerated economic growth would filter down and spread across, bringing the benefits of capitalist growth to the poorer segment of developing societies. 25 集中投資于有最多聯(lián)系效應(yīng)的產(chǎn)業(yè) 優(yōu)勢：通過外部經(jīng)濟和聯(lián)系效應(yīng)創(chuàng)造投資機會 所以：加強產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部的聯(lián)系；增長點的形成 Interlink among industries, Growth Poles 收入差距：增加、持平、下降 扶貧只是發(fā)展框架中很不受重視的一部分，資源稟賦也沒有得到考慮，節(jié)約勞動的進口替代技術(shù)被推崇 Relegated poverty alleviation to the bottom of the development agenda and with total disregard of the inherent factorendowments of LDCs, en