對(duì)外投資和工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估(文件)
【正文】 ct Risk Planning ?Monthly Risk Report and Risk Workshop ? Risk Register ? Project Risk KOM in Madrid （二）項(xiàng)目投標(biāo)報(bào)價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、定性分析和應(yīng)對(duì) Likelihood Consequence Descriptor % Opportunity Cost (KWD) (USD) Time (days to Critical Path) Environment Health and Safety Reputation Threat Very unlikely 1 1 1 Minor 500k M 5 Slight effect. Slight effect. Injury. Slight effect. 1 Negligible Unlikely 2 120 2 Significant 500k–1M – 530 Minor effect. Minor health effect. Injury. Minor effect. 2 Marginal Fairly likely 3 2050 3 Substantial 1M 5M 3060 Localised effect. Major health effect. Injury. Localised effect. 3 Substantial Likely 4 5085 4 Very Substantial 5M 10M 60120 Major effect. 13 fatalities. Total disability Major effect. 4 Severe Highly likely 5 85 5 Exceptional 10 M 120 Massive effect. 3 fatalities Massive effect. 5 Disaster ExceptionalVery SubstantialSubstantialSignificantMinorNegligibleMarginalSubstantialSevereDisasterH i gh l y l i k e l yH LV e r y H ig hV HR a n k : 2 5V e r y H ig hV HR a n k : 2 0H i g hHR a n k : 1 5M e d i u mMR a n k : 1 0LowLR a n k : 5LowLR a n k : 5M e d i u mMR a n k : 1 0H i g hHR a n k : 1 5V e r y H i g hV HR a n k : 2 0V e r y H i g hV HR a n k : 2 5Li k e l yLV e r y H ig hV HR a n k : 2 0H ig hHR a n k : 1 6M e d i u mMR a n k : 1 2LowLR a n k : 8V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 4V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 4LowLR a n k : 8M e d i u mMR a n k : 1 2H i g hHR a n k : 1 6V e r y H i g hV HR a n k : 2 0Fa i r l y l i k e l yF LH i g hHR a n k : 1 5M e d i u mMR a n k : 1 2LowLR a n k : 9LowLR a n k : 6V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 3V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 3LowLR a n k : 6LowLR a n k : 9M e d i u mMR a n k : 1 2H i g hHR a n k : 1 5U nl i k e l yUM e d i u mMR a n k : 1 0LowLR a n k : 8LowLR a n k : 6V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 4V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 2V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 2V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 4LowLR a n k : 6LowLR a n k : 8M e d i u mMR a n k : 1 0V e r y un l i k e l yV ULowLR a n k : 5V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 4V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 3V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 2V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 1V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 1V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 2V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 3V e r y L o wV LR a n k : 4LowLR a n k : 5O p p o r t u n i t y C o n s e q u e n c e T h r e a t C o n s e q u e n c eLikelihood評(píng)估標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和 PI矩陣 （二）項(xiàng)目投標(biāo)報(bào)價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、定性分析和應(yīng)對(duì) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)登記表 （二）項(xiàng)目投標(biāo)報(bào)價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 輸入變量 概率分布 /相蘭系數(shù) 1 0 應(yīng)對(duì)前 期望值 1 0 應(yīng)對(duì)后 期望值 編號(hào) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)名稱 可能性 1可能性 Pre PPDF 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)前影響程度（產(chǎn)生的費(fèi)用） Pre IPDF P*IPre 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施 產(chǎn)生的費(fèi)用 可能性 1可能性 Post PPDF 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)后影響程度（產(chǎn)生的費(fèi)用） Post IPDF P*IPost 最小值 最可能值 最大值 最小值 最可能值 最大值 R5 5 異常不利的氣候，沙暴，干旱，高溫等 80% 20% NAME? 4,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 NAME? NAME? 1,200,000 60% 40% NAME? 2,500,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 NAME? NAME? R6 6 技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)規(guī)范不熟悉 80% 20% NAME? 10,000,000 15,000,000 15,000,000 NAME? NAME? 12,000,000 60% 40% NAME? 5,000,000 5,500,000 6,000,000 NAME? NAME? R8 8 總線接線方案 80% 20% NAME? 7,500,000 8,000,000 8,500,000 NAME? NAME? 2,400,000 40% 60% NAME? 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 NAME? NAME? R10 10 設(shè)計(jì)相關(guān)的各類分析和研究 60% 40% NAME? 5,000,000 5,500,000 6,000,000 NAME? NAME? 2,750,000 40% 60% NAME? 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 NAME? NAME? R14 14 業(yè)主設(shè)計(jì)變更 60% 40% NAME? 4,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 NAME? NAME? 800,000 20% 80% NAME? 800,000 800,000 1,000,000 NAME? NAME? R19 19 專業(yè)分工以及計(jì)劃的實(shí)施 80% 20% NAME? 5,000,000 5,500,000 6,000,000 NAME? NAME? 1,100,000 60% 40% NAME? 2,500,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 NAME? NAME? R20 20 加強(qiáng)對(duì)詢價(jià)文件、技術(shù)協(xié)議及采購(gòu)合同規(guī)范化 80% 20% NAME? 6,500,000 7,000,000 7,500,000 NAME? NAME? 1,400,000 40% 60% NAME? 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 NAME? NAME? RISK Correlations R6 / PPDF in $F$5 R8 / PPDF in $F$6 R6 / PPDF in $F$5 1 R8 / PPDF in $F$6
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