goldsurvey20xxpresentation20xx全球黃金市場(chǎng)調(diào)研(文件)
【正文】 ishment. ? Supply expected to rise fairly strongly in 2022, with growth in mine production, and, from a very low base, official sector sales, the latter also expected to be concentrated in the second half. Scrap supply has fallen yeartodate but should recover in the latter part of 2022 basis higher price conditions. These will also mean that there is only a moderate recovery in fabrication demand for the calendar year as a whole. ? Imbalances in the market suggest that at some point the gold price will have to retreat. Nevertheless, this is most unlikely to occur on a secular basis in 2022 and potentially not until well into 2022 given current economic conditions, which in an underlying sense still favour gold investment. GFMS Gold Price Forecast for 2022 Source: GFMS Forecast Average: $1,170 Forecast Range: $1,050$1,300 GFMS Forthing Events ? ? ? 22 April 2022: Platinum amp。 CBOT futures) Gold Price 2022 2022 2022 157k contracts 177k contracts 219k contracts Average size of “investor” long. 2022 135k contracts European amp。rale. Net Market Impact of Producer Hedging Supply Demand Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2022) * outstanding forward sales, loans and delta hedge against positions Outstanding hedge book just 236 tonnes at end2022 Total Accelerated Supply from Producer Hedging* Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2022) Investment in 2022 ? ? World Investment (which includes the implied figure, bar hoarding and all coins) nearly doubled in 2022 to over 1,900 tonnes and reached an approximate value of $60 billion. The first few months of 2022 saw a record level of investment demand. Fears about financial stability and economic depression triggered a wave of safe haven buying, particularly in the forms of gold ETFs and physical bullion products. ? After a summer lull, investor activity, especially in the OTC and futures markets, picked up strongly from September onwards, primarily driven by a weaker dollar, higher price expectations and growing concerns regarding future trends in inflation. This surge in investment demand drove prices above $1,200, before a loss of momentum and some profit taking brought about a price correction in the final weeks of 2022. World Investment* Value of World Investment *World Investment is the sum of Implied investment, bar hoarding and all coins amp。 Scrap Supply Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2022) Jewellery Fabrication Scrap Supply AboveGround Jewellery Stocks by Region, end2022 Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2022) CBGA and Other Gold Sales Other CBGA “CBGA” refers to signatories to the Central Bank Gold Agreement “Other” refers to all other countries Source: GFMS (Gold Survey 2022) Demand 2022 2022 yoy Fabrication Jewellery 2,193 1,759 % Other 696 658 % Total Fabrication 2,889 2,417 % Bar hoarding 386 187 % Net producer dehedging 352 254 % Implied investment 330 1,429 % TOTAL DEMAND 3,957 4,287 % Gold Demand in 2022 Source: GFMS
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