【正文】 that a ?rm adds during production to materials and services purchased from other ?rms. It equals the difference between a ?rm’s gross receipts and the costs of all intermediate inputs used to produce the product (including the cost of capital goods but excluding wages). A tax on the valueadded of all businesses therefore has as its base the total value of all ?nal products, making a VAT equivalent (under some conditions) to a national retail sales tax.Importantly, the existing literature does not provide formal empirical evidence on the relationship between the VAT and consumer spending. Our paper is an attempt to fill this void by examining the empirical linkage between the VAT and consumption behavior, using actual data and dealing appropriately with standard econometric issues (., the dynamic nature of the model, endogeneity, persistence, simultaneity bias, and omitted variable bias).3 Empirical strategyOur approach follows previous empirical studies that are based upon the estimation of an aggregate consumption function in which consumption depends upon current ine, accumulated wealth, and additional variables that include (among other things) taxes. However, we extend these studies in several signi?cant ways. We estimate our basic model with data that cover different time periods (., ?veyear averaged data versus annual data), different explanatory variables, and different consumption measures. We also employ several different estimation methods, but we focus on estimators that attempt to control for endogeneity, omitted variable bias, simultaneity, and measurement error. Each of these extensions is discussed in turn, beginning with our data, then our basic empirical speci?cation and its variants, and ?nally our alternative estimation method. DataOur dataset includes ?fteen EU countries over the period 1961– data on real household consumption expenditures, real household consumption expenditures per capita, real GDP, real GDP per capita, in?ation, total population, elderly population, and the consumer price index (CPI) (with 1995 the base year) are generated from various years of the World Development Indicators of the World Bank。 taxes on payroll and workforce。 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012.附錄2：外文譯文增值稅收和消費(fèi)1 介紹對消費(fèi)而非收入征稅的主要理由之一是消費(fèi)稅抑制消費(fèi)，鼓勵儲蓄，從而更好的提高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。在后面詳細(xì)討論中，關(guān)于消費(fèi)和儲蓄實(shí)證文獻(xiàn)的決定因素，是建立在一個更大的關(guān)于消費(fèi)和儲蓄的理論文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上。世界各地的政府收入相對較少，超過120個國家，增值稅是政府財(cái)政收入的一個主要來源，影響約40億人。增值稅已廣泛應(yīng)用于歐洲近四十年,現(xiàn)在也被世界其他國家所采用。我們的論文是研究增值稅和消費(fèi)行為之間的聯(lián)系，用實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)和適當(dāng)處理標(biāo)準(zhǔn)計(jì)量的（例如，模型的動態(tài)性，內(nèi)生性，持久性，同時偏置，和變量遺漏偏差）。我們還采用了幾種不同的估計(jì)方法，但我們專注于試圖控制內(nèi)生性，遺漏變量偏差和測量誤差的估計(jì)。估計(jì)，我們的基本模型數(shù)據(jù)，涵蓋不同的時間段（例如，五年平均數(shù)據(jù)與年度數(shù)據(jù)），不同的解釋變量，不同的消費(fèi)措施。1961 2005年期間年度數(shù)據(jù)包含實(shí)際家庭消費(fèi)支出、實(shí)際的家庭消費(fèi)支出人均實(shí)際GDP、實(shí)際人均國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、通貨膨脹、人口總數(shù)、老年人口，消費(fèi)價格指數(shù)(CPI)(與1995年的基準(zhǔn)年)生成各種世界銀行的世界發(fā)展指標(biāo)；所有標(biāo)稱值被轉(zhuǎn)換為美國1995年不變美元，使用消費(fèi)物價指數(shù)。工資和勞動力和稅收總收入。我們也考察了一些不太標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的消費(fèi)決定因素的影響4估計(jì)結(jié)果 然而，系數(shù)估計(jì)值沒有統(tǒng)計(jì)意義。老年撫養(yǎng)比率是積極的,但統(tǒng)計(jì)上并不顯著。盡管系數(shù)大小不同和統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義不同，但是所有的估計(jì)對收入水平，收入的增長。同樣，根據(jù)私人消費(fèi)，稅收總收入的影響小并且在統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)上沒有意義。％，但略大于一些其他的估計(jì)（2001年卡羅爾。我們采用了簡化型線性方程用于消費(fèi)。由于家庭財(cái)富的獲取數(shù)據(jù)的難度，金融系統(tǒng)存款用于代理家庭的財(cái)富，根據(jù)來自金融結(jié)構(gòu)與世界銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展數(shù)據(jù)庫(最近更新到2009年)。這些擴(kuò)展是反過來討論的,根據(jù)我們的基本經(jīng)驗(yàn)規(guī)范及其變體,最后我們選擇估計(jì)方法。3 實(shí)證戰(zhàn)略我們的方法遵循之前的實(shí)證研究并基于估計(jì)的總消費(fèi)函數(shù),消費(fèi)取決于當(dāng)前的收入,積累財(cái)富,和額外的變量,包括稅收(在其他事物之中)。但是，我們將這些研究擴(kuò)展在一些重大方面。因此對所有最終產(chǎn)品的總價值具有增值的作用，增值稅在某些條件下相當(dāng)于一個國家的零售銷售稅。2以往一些關(guān)于稅收和消費(fèi)的工作 本節(jié)分為三部分，相應(yīng)的收入與消費(fèi)稅，消費(fèi)支出的決定因素的實(shí)證研究，以及一個簡短的調(diào)查增值稅的文學(xué)理論研究。據(jù)我們所知，還沒有人研究消費(fèi)稅/增值稅對消費(fèi)和儲蓄的影響。在本文中，我們根據(jù)15個歐洲聯(lián)盟（歐盟）國家在1961年至2005年期間對總消費(fèi)量的分析得出對消費(fèi)稅，增值稅（VAT）的基礎(chǔ)影響。 Attanasio and Low 2004). The old age dependency ratio is positive but statistically insigni?cant. The in?uence of total consumption tax revenue excluding VAT revenue on private consumption is statistically insigni?cant, with a positive sign but a very small magnitude. Similarly, the impact of total ine tax revenue on private consumption is numerically small and statistically insigni?cant. Sensitivity analysis In most cases, the results obtained with our preferred GMMSystem Twostep estimator are qualitatively similar to those obtained with the other three estimators. All estimators yield positive effects of the level of ine, the growth rate of ine, the level of wealth, and a negative effect of the interest rate, although the coef?cients vary in size and statistical signi?cance. Most interestingly, Effective VAT Rate (or its interaction with Entry in the DID estimates) continues to appear with a negative and statistically signi?cant coef?cient in all estimators, though with varying magnitudes and levels of signi?cance.5 ConclusionsDoes the valueadded tax affect consumption? Using a sample of ?fteen EU countries over the period 1961–2005 and the recently developed dynamic panel GMMSystem estimator, we ?nd that the effective VAT tax rate is negatively correlated with the level of aggregate consumption. More precisely, a one percentage point increase in the VAT rate leads to about a one percent reduction in the level of per capita aggregate consumption. This result is consistent across various estimators, alternative time periods, and additional explanatory variables. To our knowledge, these estimation results are the ?rst attempt to include explicitly and to estimate directly the effects of the VAT on consumption behavior .In fact when replacing a traditional sales tax with a VAT consumer prices actually fell.James Alm taxes on goods and services。在論文的選題，資料搜索，格式要求都給與了我很大的幫助，沒有你們也不會有今天的我。即使考試迫在眉睫，也會抽出時間和我一起修改格式。感謝老師的諄諄教導(dǎo)，才有現(xiàn)在全新的自己來應(yīng)變百變的問題。正是張老師的無私幫助與熱忱鼓勵，我的畢業(yè)論文才能夠得以順利完成，謝謝許老師。離校日期已日趨臨近，畢業(yè)論文的的完成也隨之進(jìn)入了尾聲。當(dāng)然,對于物流企業(yè)這個推動我國服務(wù)行業(yè)整體發(fā)展的新興產(chǎn)業(yè)來說,顯得更加彌足珍貴了。以上是中國物流與采購聯(lián)合會經(jīng)過深入調(diào)研，就此次營業(yè)稅改征增值稅試點(diǎn)工作中，物流業(yè)遇到的問題提出政策建議，提交相關(guān)政府部門決策參考，希望予以重視并妥善解決。在問題沒有充分暴露，沒有找到相應(yīng)解決辦法的情況下，貿(mào)然擴(kuò)大試點(diǎn)范圍，將會產(chǎn)生較大震動。加之操作環(huán)節(jié)許多問題尚未明確，不斷出臺政策“打補(bǔ)丁”，也加大了稅務(wù)機(jī)關(guān)的工作難度。 充分考慮物流企業(yè)的經(jīng)營和核算特點(diǎn)，允許物流企業(yè)收入成本確認(rèn)與增值稅確認(rèn)時點(diǎn)分離。 中國物流與采購聯(lián)合會建議，適當(dāng)增加增值稅進(jìn)項(xiàng)抵扣項(xiàng)目。、子公司合并繳納增值稅 參照《關(guān)于中國東方航空公司執(zhí)行機(jī)構(gòu)試點(diǎn)納稅人增值稅計(jì)算繳納暫行辦法的通知》中國東方航空公司及其分公司合并繳納增值稅的規(guī)定：總機(jī)構(gòu)應(yīng)當(dāng)匯總計(jì)算總機(jī)構(gòu)及其分支機(jī)構(gòu)的應(yīng)交增值稅，抵減分支機(jī)構(gòu)已繳納的增值稅和營業(yè)稅稅款后，解繳入庫。 針對一些具體問題提出的對策與措施 針對我國物流業(yè)沒有統(tǒng)一的發(fā)票，發(fā)票種類名目繁多的問題，提出以下兩點(diǎn)建議： 一是設(shè)計(jì)使用增值稅專用定額發(fā)票。如何才能發(fā)揮物流協(xié)會的的作用呢，我們應(yīng)從實(shí)際情況出發(fā)具體分析。 充分發(fā)揮物流行業(yè)協(xié)會的作用爭取政策扶持物流行業(yè)協(xié)