【正文】 quoted as technology builders and analysts and those who have made insightful predictions to our previous queries about the future of the Inter. (For more details, please see the section “About this Canvassing of Experts.”) Key themes: reasons to be hopeful 1) Advances in technology may displace certain types of work, but historically they have been a creator of jobs. 2) We will adapt to these changes by inventing entirely new types of work, and by taking advantage of uniquely human capabilities. 3) Technology will free us from daytoday drudgery, and allow us to define our relationship with “work” in a more positive and socially beneficial way. 4) Ultimately, we as a society control our own destiny through the choices we make. Key themes: reasons to be concerned 1) Impacts from automation have thus far impacted mostly bluecollar employment。t think the human race can retire en masse by 2025.” Argument 2: Advances in technology create new jobs and industries even as they displace some of the older ones Ben Shneiderman, professor of puter science at the University of Maryland, wrote, “Robots and AI make pelling stories for journalists, but they are a false vision of the major economic changes. Journalists lost their jobs because of changes to advertising, professors are threatened by MOOCs, and store salespeople are losing jobs to Inter sales people. Improved user interfaces, electronic delivery (videos, music, etc.), and more selfreliant customers reduce job needs. At the 7 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g same time someone is building new websites, managing corporate social media plans, creating new products, etc. Improved user interfaces, novel services, and fresh ideas will create more jobs.” Amy Webb, CEO of strategy firm Webbmedia Group, wrote, “There is a general concern that the robots are taking over. I disagree that our emerging technologies will permanently displace most of the workforce, though I39。human hand39。 cars will be totally unmanned. The human39。t do, such as services that require thinking, 8 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g creativity, synthesizing, problemsolving, and innovating…Advances in AI and robotics allow people to cognitively offload repetitive tasks and invest their attention and energy in things where humans can make a difference. We already have cars that talk to us, a phone we can talk to, robots that lift the elderly out of bed, and apps that remind us to call Mom. An app can dial Mom39。t ensure employment driven demand it will bee increasingly less petitive.” Geoff Livingston, author and president of Tenacity5 Media, wrote, “I see the movement towards AI and robotics as evolutionary, in large part because it is such a sociological leap. The technology may be ready, but we are not—at least, not yet.” An equally large group of experts takes a diametrically opposed view of technology?s impact on employment. In their reading of history, job displacement as a result of technological advancement is clearly in evidence today, and can only be expected to get worse as automation es to the whitecollar world. Argument 1: Displacement of workers from automation is already happening—and about to get much worse Jerry Michalski, founder of REX, the Relationship Economy eXpedition, sees the logic of the slow and unrelenting movement in the direction of more automation: “Automation is Voldemort: the terrifying force nobody is willing to name. Oh sure, we talk about it now and then, but usually in passing. We hardly dwell on the fact that someone trying to pick a career path that is not likely to be automated will have a very hard time making that choice. Xray technician? Outsourced already, and automation in progress. The race between automation and human work is won by g 10 PEW RESEARCH CENTER automation, and as long as we need fiat currency to pay the rent/mortgage, humans will fall out of the system in droves as this shift takes place…The safe zones are services that require local human effort (gardening, painting, babysitting), distant human effort (editing, coaching, coordinating), and highlevel thinking/relationship building. Everything else falls in the targetrich environment of automation.” Mike Roberts, Inter pioneer and Hall of Fame member and longtime leader with ICANN and the Inter Society, shares this view: “Electronic human avatars with substantial work capability are years, not decades away. The situation is exacerbated by total failure of the economics munity to address to any serious degree sustainability issues that are destroying the modern ?consumerist? model and undermining the early 20th century notion of ?a fair day39。 Society, said, “Robots and AI will increasingly replace routine kinds of work—even the plex routines performed by artisans, factory workers, lawyers, and accountants. There will be a labor market in the service sector for nonroutine tasks that can be performed interchangeably by just about anyone—and these will not pay a living wage—and there will be some new opportunities created for plex nonroutine work, but the gains at this top of the labor market will not be offset by losses in the middle and gains of terrible jobs at the bottom. I39。 or creativity…An increasing proportion of the world39。t afford to buy the car.” Alex Howard, a writer and editor based in Washington, ., said, “I expect that automation and AI will have had a substantial impact on whitecollar jobs, particularly backoffice functions in g 12 PEW RESEARCH CENTER clinics, in law firms, like medical secretaries, transcriptionists, or paralegals. Governments will have to collaborate effectiv ely with technology panies and academic institutions to provide massive retraining efforts over the next decade