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【正文】 Product category Air conditioner Washing machine White goods Microwave ? Packaged A/C ? Central A/C* ? Sidebyside Refrigerator Product subcategories *Used by residentials and small businesses 6 aaaaaa010807BJrefrigerator MARKET DEFINITION Supply (petitor) analysis Demand (customer) analysis Overall environment analysis Market definition Market assessment ? Relevant regulatory environment and trends ? Relevant technological environment and trends 7 aaaaaa010807BJrefrigerator LOWEND REFRIGERATOR MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE DOMINATED BY LOCAL COMPETITORS. MNCS COULD SUCCEED IN THE MIDTOHIGHEND NICHE MARKETS Regulatory Trends/issues Implications ? Market has been fairly open and will remain so ? Most leading MNC players are already in China and have localized their production and sourcing Technological ? In general, technologies for refrigerators are not very plicated, esp. for lowend products ? Technology trend is to focus on digitization, artificial intelligence and environmental friendliness ? Entry to WTO is not expected to have huge direct impact on current petitive environment ? The market is likely to be dominated by local players who are mostly not as strong in technology as MNC players but stronger in channel and sales capabilities, especially in the lowend segments ? MNC players are likely to succeed by being niche players and focusing on midtohighend segments ? Competition in product innovation is likely to focus on customization and localization 8 aaaaaa010807BJrefrigerator MARKET DEFINITION Supply (petitor) analysis Demand (customer) analysis Overall environment analysis Market definition Market assessment ? Market size and growth rate ? Key buying factors ? Distribution channel structure 9 aaaaaa010807BJrefrigerator ALTHOUGH aaaaaaOND LARGEST MARKET AMONG WHITE GOODS, REFRIGERATOR MARKET GROWTH WILL BE MODEST Source: GFK, SINOMR, Light Industry Information Center, aaaaaa, field interviews, McKinsey analysis 2 1 , 0 5 62 1 , 9 6 42 2 , 9 2 42 3 , 9 0 42 4 , 9 2 32 5 , 9 7 52023 Sidebyside Nonsidebyside refrigerators 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 CAGR (0005) Percent 21,130 22,060 23,050 24,070 25,140 26,260 Key drivers Rationale or assumptions ? Replacement ? Since the peration rate in China is high (~80%), particularly in major cities (100%), majority of the demand for nonsidebyside refrigerators will e from replacement purchase ? Ine growth ? Increase in average disposable ine drives demand for midtolarge capacity and midtohigh end refrigerators ? Average price ? Drops at 4% . 74 96 126 166 217 285 Refrigerator market size and growth RMB millions, percent Units sold (nonsidebyside) millions Average selling price (nonsidebyside) 1,840 1,910 1,990 2,070 2,160 2,250 10 aaaaaa010807BJrefrigerator THE MARKET IS VERY SATIATED Replacement is likely to be the key driver for future demand Source: China Statistics Yearbook Peration rate in China Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Whole China 103% 101% 87% 80% 11 aaaaaa010807BJrefrigerator MIDTOLARGE CAPACITY REFRIGERATORS HAVE BEEN CONSUMER39。s FAVORITE CHOICE Source: SINOMR, GfK 100L 1210811 14132426 3330312710911108632 2100% = 1998 1999 2023 Historical market size by capacity in major cities Percent, million units 100150L 150180L 180200L 200225L 225250L 250300L 300L CAGR (0005) Percent 12 aaaaaa010807BJrefrigerator SIDEBYSIDE REFRIGE
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