【正文】 022caseLow– 108 47 103 9 22 5 1 3HighLowHigh 1 2 3 7 9 12 16 19 239andCHINA’S MOBILE MARKET IS PROJECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY*world*CAGR19972022percent2918452847452022E 2022E 2022E 2022E1,8508andpercentWestern=Lynch。DeutscheanduseEast,Afirca,Telescase*ChinaEuropean**MII。Man。Germany,MajorandforecastServiceCAGR 19%20823526329117 16 15 15Announcedtrafficbyaslateanddueperation? Lowendnumbers? RelativelybackingNumber of subscribers – low case MillionsMan。dataSource:Deutschecalculated**availablegivenaverageforsubscriptionstheyear.averageforsubscriberproductdoTelesBank。Fixed19972022 MOBILE SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH OF 30% CAGR HAS OUTPACED OTHER TELECOM SERVICE SECTORS AND IS PROJECTED AT 16% THROUGH 2022RevenuesKEY MESSAGES1. China’s mobile tele service market is huge and fast growing, representing US$21 billion market size in 2022 and US$38 billion in 2022. This market is supported by the world’s largest subscriber base at 145 million, already prising 15% of the world’s total in 2022 and growing to potentially 218 million in a low case or 300 million in a high case by 20224choices3details)Appendix– Playersseparateunpredictablerecordandregulationdecisions,meansrisksforteleleastrequiredChineseexistalthoughandofwillsetwilltheaccessionloom,needs.deviceswillandwill2022.billionwithSMSfailedearlyinareoperatorshaveInterestof2022,overaquicklyarepetition.3.pricingtohighHoweverhighowns72%82%dominatesForbuildingthirdpotentialRail,fifthreceivewhoandteletoChinaAMinistryareMobile,Chinatosinglehaslandscapebyincasemilliongrowingtotal15%145largestsupported2022.andmarketgrowing,ismobileServiceEntryCaseKeyTeleHandsetServicesChinaChina’sTeleMacroeconomic(BEI)Shirley(BEI)Eric(TOK)GraemeFXingWu(TOK)Perchow(BEI)ChipperACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND REFERENCESMGMs and CSS involved in the relevant studies include the following:TonyMcKinseypriorreproducedbepartFirmfor2022ThisCONFIDENTIALChina’s Mobile Tele ServicesIndustry OverviewGCOreportthepersonnel.ofcirculated,forwrittenamp。PerkinsBoulasJoseph(HKO)Hai(HK)YiLiHunterXuChenEnvironmentServiceInterTeleOverviewSectorIndustrySuccessStudiestoIndustrytelehugerepresentingsizeUS$38Thisbysubscribermillion,ofintoinora20222.forevolvedregulatortoday’sUnibothunassociatedofsecondTeleformoperators,Chinaaremobiletelealsoofgenerationanow,thevaluesubscribermuchvaluechurnandincreasepressuresWirelessexpectedinmarketUS$4usedallfrombeenandactivelytheWAPtohasupSMSThebemodernrequiretailored4.particularlyofWTO.beupallowforeignersvaluegeographicthroughplayerstoservicebasicremain,tounclearincludingtheofdecisionregulatoryprofiles– 3GTelesTelesUS$linePagingCAGR30%CAGR16%ServicenotoffiguresyearsubscribersDetailedtimingandthesubscribersyearAllonBank。CAGR 30%CAGR 16%CAGR 83%ARPUUS$/monthCAGR 24%CAGR 7%? PerationforlowprepaidtolowerentrantspetitionincreaseinEffectiveIndustryusesubsmultisimcardEuropeanUK,Netherlands,countriesCAGR = 30%CAGR = 14%CAGR = 7%Number of mobile subscribersMillionsCAGR = 13%20222022China–ServiceEasternCanada**ForecastthesubsmultisimcardGartnerBank。Global mobile subscribersMillionEuropeUSSouthAsiaTeles0205subsmultisimcardJPMcKinseyTelesandLiteraturereports。(US$mobilethemn42%463mn*47%China ine distribution and addressable marketPercent1,8151,77220222022? China’smobileto.fivemillionassumptionsineconsumers510%%onhigherofdevelopedgreaterisgoodsoflivingassumedserviceswillUSDineUSD2022for35%Addressablepersons2022 Addressable345ServiceGartner。EIU100%1996 1997 1998 1999 2022 2022E 2022E 2022E 2022E 2022EMobile subscriber peration in 2022PercentItalySwedenNetherlandsUKSpainGermanyFranceUSChina**Allpopulation)ChinaareinactivePerationurbanIndustrySource:ChinaManTelesrate2022Source:ChinaMan2022Subscriber CAGRPercent,TibetGuizhouIndustryIndustrycurrentlyEIUreportsChinasecondinTeleproviderandmadeUniRailChinaandwhenintofunctions?ChinatowithinofTeleChinaMobileantimonopoly1stChinaintoCTCTchangeApriltoactedandtelemunications?InmadeandwithainPLA’sundertakesatthegovernmentPLAGreatdecisionassetsmade(transferpleted)? 2ndwork?EstablishedGSMrailwaylicenseindataofferinNetbrokenandNorthNetbeeTeleaslocalseveralbyproposalwithaboutmergerspanies? ChinasecondtoRail?WhileassettowilloperatorwithGSMofworkforopenness3GServiceNovemberJitongandunit? Competitionmergedlicensesoperations,services? OriginalChinaandChinastrongcapitalthistoChinapubliclylicense16PROFILES OF CURRENT AND LIKELY FUTURE PLAYERSChina assets Mobile strategy Current partnershipsLicense prospects*Stillmillionmobile180workoperatoraccessonlinebebackbonecities?Startedinworkcovering(500thus3G?FocusGPRSsupportingtechnology,toanddevelopingwithserviceoperators,supplierandtomobileastechnologydataitfirst?MayGZ,followinglicenseusers– UsetargetT?JapanSachs?SingTel? NoneExistingExistingCurrent playersChina MobileChina UniLikely future playersChina TeleChina NetChina Rail*Government2undecidedtype。beJaffrey。ServiceSachs。10joinedtoenterprise? Settoservices? Potentialpanies? Newtele? Sometakeoverassets? Ownsmarketdesireoperationsoff