【正文】 能因?yàn)槲磥?lái)房?jī)r(jià)的走勢(shì)、利率以及房主能夠如何應(yīng)對(duì)這些東西而無(wú)法估計(jì)。對(duì)有些人來(lái)說(shuō) ,特別是對(duì)那些從來(lái)都不喜歡公允價(jià)值會(huì)計(jì)的人而言 ,現(xiàn)在所有的證據(jù)表明公允價(jià)值會(huì)計(jì)是一個(gè)愚蠢的東西。 關(guān)鍵在于，它是 一個(gè) 財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告 上的功 能，用來(lái) 告訴人們正在發(fā)生的事情。 但是何謂訴訟？ 不管人們關(guān)于公允價(jià)值的想法如何，次級(jí)余波后的特征之一就是 有 變得 完全適得其反 的潛在可能。 尤其是美國(guó)為了尋求發(fā)展，以詳細(xì)的規(guī)則擺脫偏見(jiàn)并融入一個(gè)更以原則為基礎(chǔ)的系統(tǒng)。因此，次貸危機(jī)也是為我們呈現(xiàn)一個(gè)面對(duì)更大問(wèn)題的機(jī)會(huì)。 financial reporting. INTRODUCTION The purpose of this paper is to explain why the question is how, not if, today’s financial statements should include estimates of the future. Many who oppose the use of fair value measurements in financial statements do so because they believe using fair value measurements introduces expectations of the future into today’s financial statements. However, under current accounting standards, almost all amounts recognized in financial statements today reflect some estimates of the future. This is not surprising because, by definition, assets and liabilities embody expected future inflows and outflows of economic benefits. Thus, this paper seeks to move the debate forward by discussing different ways in which estimates of the future can be incorporated into today’s financial statements, and identifying the resulting implications for the characteristics of accounting amounts, such as ine. Regarding asset and liability measurement, International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) require many financial instruments to be measured at fair value and permit fair value measurement for most others. Even though the use of fair values for measuring nonfinancial assets and liabilities is limited, the use of other 8 measurement attributes that reflect estimates of the future is pervasive. A review of recent activities at the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) reveals that the use of estimates is likely to increase. The sources of the increase are new requirements to use current information when applying modified historical cost and broader use of fair value. The IASB’s deliberations often focus on which of these estimates should be included in financial statements. Some constituents express concerns about how including more estimates will affect financial statements. The IASB’s apparent focus on measuring assets and liabilities using more estimates of the future stems from its mitment to achieving its stated objective of financial reporting. In particular, the IASB Framework for the Preparation and Presentation of Financial Statements (IASCB 1989) (hereafter, the Framework) states that the objective of financial reporting is to provide information useful to financ ial statement users in making economic decisions. It seems selfevident that financial statement amounts that reflect current economic conditions and uptodate expectations of the future will be more useful in making those decisions, which are made in the current economic environment. However, it also seems selfevident that not all expectations of the future should be recognized in financial statements today, particularly those that do not arise from events or transactions that have occurred. The definitions of assets and liabilities play a critical role in determining what types of expectations of the future are candidates for recognition in financial statements. One must identify precisely which asset or liability is being considered for recognition。 Accounting Horizons Vol. 20, No. 3 September 2020 pp. 271–285 Including Estimates of the Future in Today’s Financial Statements Mary E. Barth SYNOPSIS: This paper explains why the question is how, not if, today’s financial statements should include estimates of the future. Including such estimates is not new, but their use is increasing. This increase results primarily because standardsetters believe asset and liability measures that reflect current economic conditions and uptodate expectations of the future will result in more useful information for making economic decisions, which is the objective of financial reporting. This is why standardsetters seem focused on fair value accounting. How estimates of the future are incorporated in financial statements depends on the asset and liability measurement attribute, and on financial reporting definitions of assets and liabilities. The present definitions depend on identifying past transactions or events that give rise to expected inflows or outflows of economic benefits and, for inflows, control over the expected benefits. Thus, not all expected inflows or outflows of economic benefits are recognized. Disclosures in the notes can help users understand recognized estimates and can provide information about unrecognized estimates. Including more estimates of the future in today’s financial statements would result in an ine measure that differs from today’s ine, but such a measure arguably provides better information for making economic decisions. Keywords: financial statements。如果財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表的編制者和審計(jì)人員自以為是誠(chéng)信的判斷被證實(shí)是錯(cuò)誤時(shí)要受到懲罰被普遍認(rèn)可 ，那么在財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表上接下去的進(jìn)展 —— 至少在美國(guó)的高級(jí)法院上 —— 可以預(yù)料在程序上將被凍結(jié)。 在這點(diǎn)上，次級(jí)混亂的余波可能是將來(lái)即將發(fā)生的一個(gè)預(yù)兆。的確，試圖去處理這些波動(dòng)是十分困難的，而結(jié)果也總不是人們想要的。” 沮喪是可以理解的。 似乎并不是所有的投資者十分欣賞 ,盡管報(bào)告的程度下降提出了數(shù)值模擬和價(jià)值 ,從而暗示了水平的精度 ,數(shù)值表現(xiàn)往往意味著 ,是基于財(cái)務(wù)模型 的必要依賴一種固有的不可知的未來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)。 該怎么辦？現(xiàn)在的情況將允許在三級(jí)的規(guī)則下提出最有可能的模式。 正如所有 正 發(fā)生 的一切 ， 再者，我們財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告系統(tǒng)上的另一個(gè)良好方面開(kāi)始起顯現(xiàn)： 希望報(bào)告 能跟著 金融投資者 的速度迅速發(fā)展 。所以財(cái)務(wù)人員和會(huì)計(jì)師很快發(fā)現(xiàn)自己有需要去應(yīng)付三級(jí)。 因此，市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始動(dòng)蕩了。 由于投資者試圖深入 地研究 CDO 資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值和 他們 現(xiàn)金流量 的可靠性 ， 工具的復(fù)雜性對(duì)洞察潛在的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)造成了重大障礙。那些 FAS 157 似乎運(yùn)作的另人滿意的領(lǐng)域就是與 次級(jí)抵押貸款 有關(guān)的 金融工具 。 為了征求社會(huì)公眾的意見(jiàn)， FAS 157 的草案分發(fā)給了金融各界，當(dāng)時(shí) 不是每個(gè)人都熱衷于它的三個(gè)級(jí)別的做法 ，那些深思熟慮的評(píng)論家非常擔(dān)心由于使用三級(jí)輸入而假設(shè)出來(lái)的價(jià)值的可靠性?！毕乱粚邮恰岸?jí)輸入”，這是輸入“除了包含在一級(jí)中可見(jiàn)的資產(chǎn)或負(fù)債以外的報(bào)價(jià)”，比如在市場(chǎng)有相似的資產(chǎn)或負(fù)債但并不活躍的報(bào)價(jià)。 FAS 157 承認(rèn)有這樣的例子存在：某些資產(chǎn)必須以公允價(jià)值來(lái)記錄但卻不存在一個(gè)活躍市場(chǎng)及一個(gè)可觀察到的市場(chǎng)價(jià)格。方 法是要求將某些資產(chǎn)按 公允價(jià)值記錄 而 其他資產(chǎn) 仍然 是按成本 記錄 。因此，“成本”法有兩個(gè)結(jié)果。一 FASB 的成員在一次會(huì)議上通過(guò)辦公樓的例子指出了這點(diǎn)。 但是，這只是 爭(zhēng)論 的一個(gè)方面 而已 。 那些倡導(dǎo)“成本法”計(jì)算資產(chǎn)的認(rèn)為成本在交易發(fā)生時(shí)能最好、最合理、最能客觀反應(yīng)“公允價(jià)值”?！痹跁?huì)計(jì)師中，這一概念作為“出口價(jià)格”被稱為速記。 盡管如此， 我們應(yīng)該 為了解決次級(jí)而稍后責(zé)怪會(huì)計(jì) 師或 要求新的會(huì)計(jì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn) 。 該論點(diǎn)是，新的會(huì)計(jì)規(guī)則要求 劃減 ， 這 實(shí)際上夸大 了 損失， 這樣 金融市場(chǎng)推動(dòng)的水平，是人為地壓低 的。tente in this debate is