【正文】 能因為未來房價的走勢、利率以及房主能夠如何應(yīng)對這些東西而無法估計。對有些人來說 ,特別是對那些從來都不喜歡公允價值會計的人而言 ,現(xiàn)在所有的證據(jù)表明公允價值會計是一個愚蠢的東西。 關(guān)鍵在于，它是 一個 財務(wù)報告 上的功 能，用來 告訴人們正在發(fā)生的事情。 但是何謂訴訟？ 不管人們關(guān)于公允價值的想法如何，次級余波后的特征之一就是 有 變得 完全適得其反 的潛在可能。 尤其是美國為了尋求發(fā)展，以詳細的規(guī)則擺脫偏見并融入一個更以原則為基礎(chǔ)的系統(tǒng)。因此，次貸危機也是為我們呈現(xiàn)一個面對更大問題的機會。 financial reporting. INTRODUCTION The purpose of this paper is to explain why the question is how, not if, today’s financial statements should include estimates of the future. Many who oppose the use of fair value measurements in financial statements do so because they believe using fair value measurements introduces expectations of the future into today’s financial statements. However, under current accounting standards, almost all amounts recognized in financial statements today reflect some estimates of the future. This is not surprising because, by definition, assets and liabilities embody expected future inflows and outflows of economic benefits. Thus, this paper seeks to move the debate forward by discussing different ways in which estimates of the future can be incorporated into today’s financial statements, and identifying the resulting implications for the characteristics of accounting amounts, such as ine. Regarding asset and liability measurement, International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) require many financial instruments to be measured at fair value and permit fair value measurement for most others. Even though the use of fair values for measuring nonfinancial assets and liabilities is limited, the use of other 8 measurement attributes that reflect estimates of the future is pervasive. A review of recent activities at the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) reveals that the use of estimates is likely to increase. The sources of the increase are new requirements to use current information when applying modified historical cost and broader use of fair value. The IASB’s deliberations often focus on which of these estimates should be included in financial statements. Some constituents express concerns about how including more estimates will affect financial statements. The IASB’s apparent focus on measuring assets and liabilities using more estimates of the future stems from its mitment to achieving its stated objective of financial reporting. In particular, the IASB Framework for the Preparation and Presentation of Financial Statements (IASCB 1989) (hereafter, the Framework) states that the objective of financial reporting is to provide information useful to financ ial statement users in making economic decisions. It seems selfevident that financial statement amounts that reflect current economic conditions and uptodate expectations of the future will be more useful in making those decisions, which are made in the current economic environment. However, it also seems selfevident that not all expectations of the future should be recognized in financial statements today, particularly those that do not arise from events or transactions that have occurred. The definitions of assets and liabilities play a critical role in determining what types of expectations of the future are candidates for recognition in financial statements. One must identify precisely which asset or liability is being considered for recognition。 Accounting Horizons Vol. 20, No. 3 September 2020 pp. 271–285 Including Estimates of the Future in Today’s Financial Statements Mary E. Barth SYNOPSIS: This paper explains why the question is how, not if, today’s financial statements should include estimates of the future. Including such estimates is not new, but their use is increasing. This increase results primarily because standardsetters believe asset and liability measures that reflect current economic conditions and uptodate expectations of the future will result in more useful information for making economic decisions, which is the objective of financial reporting. This is why standardsetters seem focused on fair value accounting. How estimates of the future are incorporated in financial statements depends on the asset and liability measurement attribute, and on financial reporting definitions of assets and liabilities. The present definitions depend on identifying past transactions or events that give rise to expected inflows or outflows of economic benefits and, for inflows, control over the expected benefits. Thus, not all expected inflows or outflows of economic benefits are recognized. Disclosures in the notes can help users understand recognized estimates and can provide information about unrecognized estimates. Including more estimates of the future in today’s financial statements would result in an ine measure that differs from today’s ine, but such a measure arguably provides better information for making economic decisions. Keywords: financial statements。如果財務(wù)報表的編制者和審計人員自以為是誠信的判斷被證實是錯誤時要受到懲罰被普遍認可 ，那么在財務(wù)報表上接下去的進展 —— 至少在美國的高級法院上 —— 可以預(yù)料在程序上將被凍結(jié)。 在這點上，次級混亂的余波可能是將來即將發(fā)生的一個預(yù)兆。的確，試圖去處理這些波動是十分困難的，而結(jié)果也總不是人們想要的?！? 沮喪是可以理解的。 似乎并不是所有的投資者十分欣賞 ,盡管報告的程度下降提出了數(shù)值模擬和價值 ,從而暗示了水平的精度 ,數(shù)值表現(xiàn)往往意味著 ,是基于財務(wù)模型 的必要依賴一種固有的不可知的未來預(yù)測。 該怎么辦？現(xiàn)在的情況將允許在三級的規(guī)則下提出最有可能的模式。 正如所有 正 發(fā)生 的一切 ， 再者，我們財務(wù)報告系統(tǒng)上的另一個良好方面開始起顯現(xiàn)： 希望報告 能跟著 金融投資者 的速度迅速發(fā)展 。所以財務(wù)人員和會計師很快發(fā)現(xiàn)自己有需要去應(yīng)付三級。 因此，市場開始動蕩了。 由于投資者試圖深入 地研究 CDO 資產(chǎn)的價值和 他們 現(xiàn)金流量 的可靠性 ， 工具的復(fù)雜性對洞察潛在的財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)造成了重大障礙。那些 FAS 157 似乎運作的另人滿意的領(lǐng)域就是與 次級抵押貸款 有關(guān)的 金融工具 。 為了征求社會公眾的意見， FAS 157 的草案分發(fā)給了金融各界，當(dāng)時 不是每個人都熱衷于它的三個級別的做法 ，那些深思熟慮的評論家非常擔(dān)心由于使用三級輸入而假設(shè)出來的價值的可靠性?！毕乱粚邮恰岸壿斎搿?，這是輸入“除了包含在一級中可見的資產(chǎn)或負債以外的報價”，比如在市場有相似的資產(chǎn)或負債但并不活躍的報價。 FAS 157 承認有這樣的例子存在：某些資產(chǎn)必須以公允價值來記錄但卻不存在一個活躍市場及一個可觀察到的市場價格。方 法是要求將某些資產(chǎn)按 公允價值記錄 而 其他資產(chǎn) 仍然 是按成本 記錄 。因此，“成本”法有兩個結(jié)果。一 FASB 的成員在一次會議上通過辦公樓的例子指出了這點。 但是，這只是 爭論 的一個方面 而已 。 那些倡導(dǎo)“成本法”計算資產(chǎn)的認為成本在交易發(fā)生時能最好、最合理、最能客觀反應(yīng)“公允價值”。”在會計師中，這一概念作為“出口價格”被稱為速記。 盡管如此， 我們應(yīng)該 為了解決次級而稍后責(zé)怪會計 師或 要求新的會計標(biāo)準(zhǔn) 。 該論點是，新的會計規(guī)則要求 劃減 ， 這 實際上夸大 了 損失， 這樣 金融市場推動的水平，是人為地壓低 的。tente in this debate is