區(qū)域經(jīng)濟學(xué)regionaleconomicdevelopment-wenkub
2022-09-09 09:46:47 本頁面
【正文】 s also expected that the trade surplus will decline as exports fall and imports rise. Also, domestic market growth will replace export market growth as the major engine of growth over the next two decades. And the external capital account balance will be in deficit as investment flows out of China to the rest of the world. Urbanization will grow, reaching from the current 50% to about twothirds. But ruralurban migration will slow as the regional ine gap and the ruralurban ine gap both narrow. The parative advantage from cheap labor will decline as education levels rise, increasing the number of skilled workers and as wages rise even for unskilled workers. China must now adopt a new strategy in order to avoid the socalled “middleine trap”. The middle ine trap refers to countries that grow due to cheap labour or natural resources, reach middle ine levels and then stall This means fundamental changes in the role of government in the economy. In terms of the role of government: ? There needs to be greater emphasis on the role of private sector development. ? There needs to be emphasis on innovation in technology. Developing technology is not the same as adopting technology. Most significantly, innovation is not something that can be achieved through government planning. One of the important roles for government will be enhancing human capital. This means better education, health care and social security. It also means encouraging horizontal mobility of labor, including ruralurban, provinceprovince, citycity, and across occupations And vertical mobility through the social, economic and political hierarchies. Government has a key role to play in provision of public services, institutions to support efficient market development, protection of the environment and promotion of equality of opportunity. This
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