【正文】 ager39。ve learned a lot recently about the limitations of models, says Richard J. Herring, a professor of international banking and codirector of the Wharton Financial Institutions Center. We39。中文 6259 字 外文資料翻譯 Why the Mindset Matters More Than the Model. Peter Bernstein Forecasting used to be straightforward. Over the years, by the end of the first quarter, managers usually had a fairly reliable sense of how the business was shaping up and whether targets would be met, missed or exceeded. Confidence in quarterly and annual predictions was so high that ing in above or below by even the smallest amount was considered a surprise and set off moves in stock prices. This year, however, things have cha nged. Companies like Unilever, Union Pacific and Visteon are declining to make any predictions at all for their performance over the months ahead. In other words, all bets are off. According to pany reports, the problem is not that these firms are reluctant to provide a gloomy outlook. Instead, the panies say they just don39。ve also seen that the governance of risk is not as good as it ought to be. Herring notes that top managers in many panies need to understand what can happen when the assumptions that drive a model change, and then subsequently municate these scenarios to their boards. Internal audit risks include the inherent risks and control risks. The inherent risks is the assumption that has nothing to do with internal accounting controls, the units being audited financial statements and the overall balance of the account of a business or the possibility of a major error, that is caused by the audit unit economic characteristics of business and accounting work itself the formation of the lack of audit risk. Some enterprises such as the lack of due attention to the accounting system, account system plex, reducing clarity of accounting information, reports, use of difficulty, cost, cost of lack of cost accounting concepts. Control risk refers to as a result of inadequate internal control system perfect, weak internal control behavior, not timely detection and correction of a business account or a major error in the formation of audit risk. Sometimes, even if the auditors audited units to confirm the internal control system is unreasonable or out of control in key areas, the amendments proposed by the audit can really suitable for operating activities, but will also create a risk amendment. Redefining Risk The first step is to get a fuller picture of risk. Most recent coverage of the global economic crisis and its origins, particularly from a risk perspective, has focused on the financial industry。s perspective. The first is that traders, economists and academics think about risk very differently than do most business managers. For the former, the key issue in risk is variance the expected spread of possible outes. But that is not how managers think about it. For them, the biggest issue in risk is the potential for loss. As a result, they ask, What39。Risk Architecture39。s existing position or investments and analyzing what could go wrong. However, organizations need to look beyond the boundaries of the firm and consider what is happening elsewhere. In recent years, businesses around the globe have bee increasingly interdependent, which brings great benefits in both efficiency and innovation but also increases panies39。 supply chains, so they can precisely identify which ponents are ing from whom and where. Similarly, MichelKerjan is working on a project to identify the DNA of financial products, in an effort to provide more visibility into the ponents that go into a product and offer more effective tools for auditing. Consulting firms also are stepping up efforts to provide panies with a more holistic, multidimensional view of their risks. Even the definition of business intelligence is expanding from a focus on operating performance to increasingly include monitoring risks, both inside and outside the organization. As the need of audit quality to the all social sectors have bee more and more ,the audit risk has bee higher and higher. Just under this background ， modern audit method made new headway and came to a new audit model—— riskoriented audit. Riskoriented auditing has many typical characteristics and rigorous audit procedure. It is also beneficial to assign audit resources and improve effectiveness and efficiency of audit. This article mainly elaborated the riskoriented audit production, development and connotation. Audit mode have three stage : accounting numberbased audit, system based auditing, and riskoriented auditing stage. In addition, the article deeply analyses the internal and external factors of riskoriented auditing causing. Under riskoriented auditing, the audit risk model has developed into Audit risk= material misstatement risks detection risk. This paper also points out that the development present condition of riskoriented auditing in our country and problems. Because riskoriented audit came into effect form January, 2020, it belonged to a development stage. The most auditors’ understanding to this audit model is sill on the have to face some unavoidable problems in practice. In view of existing situation, this article gives some good suggestions and solutions to these problems. I believe application of riskoriented auditing will e to m