區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展與人地關(guān)系行為機(jī)制模型研究(已修改)
2025-01-24 02:08 本頁面
【正文】 區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展與人地關(guān)系行為機(jī)制模型研究石 敏俊筑波大學(xué)區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展與人地關(guān)系行為機(jī)制模型研究 ? 區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展與農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境政策? 人地關(guān)系行為機(jī)制模型框架的建立：外部社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素影響人地關(guān)系變化的機(jī)制? 鄂爾多斯高原： 人地關(guān)系 行為機(jī)制模型 與退耕還林對水土保持影響的比較靜態(tài)模擬? 自然科學(xué)與社會科學(xué)相融合的必要性區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展與農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境政策 ? 歐美國家的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境政策–石油農(nóng)業(yè)的化肥農(nóng)藥高投入導(dǎo)致水質(zhì)污染等環(huán)境問題–價格支持政策導(dǎo)致農(nóng)產(chǎn)品過剩–農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境政策的核心是推行農(nóng)業(yè)粗放化經(jīng)營，減少化肥農(nóng)藥投入，減少農(nóng)產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量–對于實行粗放經(jīng)營的農(nóng)戶給予政策補(bǔ)貼發(fā)展中國家的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境問題? 土地退化引起的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境問題– 沙漠化，水土流失，鹽堿化? 環(huán)境負(fù)荷引起的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境問題– 水質(zhì)污染，土壤污染? 土地退化的人為因素– 人口壓力，農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)水平? 依賴資源投入的靜態(tài)增長導(dǎo)致農(nóng)業(yè)粗放再生產(chǎn)和土地利用的平面擴(kuò)張，土地利用超過環(huán)境容量時帶來土地退化發(fā)展中國家的農(nóng)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展? 解決土地退化問題的出路在于發(fā)展可持續(xù)集約農(nóng)業(yè)–可持續(xù)集約農(nóng)業(yè)：通過集約化達(dá)到可持續(xù)? 集約化：對少量土地實行集約經(jīng)營，技術(shù)密集投入，提高單位土地面積生產(chǎn)力水平，為大面積退化土地休生養(yǎng)息恢復(fù)生態(tài)、實現(xiàn)區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供條件保護(hù)環(huán)境與發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系發(fā)展中國家的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境政策? 解決土地退化問題的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境政策應(yīng)當(dāng)結(jié)合發(fā)展可持續(xù)集約農(nóng)業(yè)來展開? 發(fā)展可持續(xù)集約農(nóng)業(yè)的關(guān)鍵是技術(shù)進(jìn)步，開發(fā)實用適用技術(shù)– 實用：實際農(nóng)業(yè)活動中可應(yīng)用的技術(shù)– 適用：適合當(dāng)?shù)貤l件適合當(dāng)?shù)剞r(nóng)戶采用的技術(shù)? 發(fā)展集約化（技術(shù)進(jìn)步和技術(shù)推廣）的政策補(bǔ)貼可作為環(huán)境保護(hù)投資進(jìn)入環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)核算人地關(guān)系行為機(jī)制模型框架：社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素影響人地關(guān)系變化的機(jī)制? 影響人地關(guān)系和環(huán)境生態(tài)變化的社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素– 人口增長– 市場和價格變動– 技術(shù)進(jìn)步– 制度和政策– 收入和消費期望? 單一或綜合的因果關(guān)系分析不能闡明社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素影響人地關(guān)系變化的機(jī)制ResourceEnvironmentLand UseAgriculturalActivityInstitutionPolicyTechnologyMarketPriceResource ConstraintImpact onEnvironmentPopulationgrowth外部社會經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境與人地關(guān)系變化Literature review? Farm household decisions on land use activities and technological choice affect the soil quality and therefore play an important role in aggravating or reducing land degradation process. ? Farm household decisions are dependent on relative prices of output, input and production factors, and other socioeconomic circumstances that are influenced by macroeconomic and agricultural policy. ? Agricultural policies affect soil degradation by influencing the level of output, input and factor prices (Heerink, 2023).社會經(jīng)濟(jì) 因素 影響環(huán)境變化的機(jī)制? 政策和制度 —— 外部社會經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境 —— 農(nóng)戶經(jīng)濟(jì)行為 —— 資源環(huán)境變化? 反饋：資源環(huán)境變化 —— 農(nóng)戶經(jīng)濟(jì)行為（資源環(huán)境退化對經(jīng)濟(jì)福利的影響，現(xiàn)在價值與將來價值的關(guān)系） ? 外部社會經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境變化：價格變動，技術(shù)進(jìn)步，資金和信用約束? 政策和制度：經(jīng)濟(jì)政策和環(huán)境政策，資源分配和資源利用秩序Conceptual frameworkPolicy reform Socioeconomic environment Household decision Land degradationMacro and Regional ModelsHousehold and Village ModelsBioeconomic ModelsBioeconomic household ModelBioeconomic village Model approach? Econometric estimation approach:– Lack of consistent data, especially long time series data about effect of soil degradation。– Difficult to derive function form of the reducedform equation. ? Meta modeling (Decision rule) approach: – Estimate a statistical relationship between exogenous and relevant endogenous variables。 refer to a blackbox representation of relationship between exogenous and endogenous variables。Bioeconomic village Model continue? Mathematical programming approach:– A major advantage of LP Model is that can bine economic behavior and biophysical process in an integrated framework.– Leontief inputoutput coefficients permits the bination of inpatible economic and biophysical production function.– A disadvantage of LP Model is that may generate vast amount of ‘whatif’ results if some of parameters of the model are not known with gr
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