風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理軟件crystalball操作指南(英文版)(已修改)
2025-06-30 15:04 本頁(yè)面
【正文】 MonteCarlo Simulation with Crystal Ball174。To run a simulation using Crystal Ball174。:1. Setup SpreadsheetBuild a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (., profit) in terms of the inputs (random or not). For random inputs, just enter any number.2. Define Assumptions—., random variablesDefine which cells are random, and what distribution they should follow.3. Define Forecast—., output or performance measureDefine which cell(s) you are interested in forecasting (typically the performance measure, ., profit).4. Choose Number of TrialsSelect the number of trials. If you would later like to generate the Sensitivity Analysis chart, choose “Sensitivity Analysis” under Options in Run Preferences.5. Run SimulationRun the simulation. If you would like to change parameters and rerun the simulation, you should “reset” the simulation (click on the “Reset Simulation” button on the toolbar or in the Run menu) first.6. View ResultsThe forecast window showing the results of the simulation appears automatically after (or during) the simulation. Many different results are available (frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, percentiles, sensitivity analysis, and trend chart). The results can be copied into the worksheet.Crystal Ball Toolbar:Define Define Run Start Reset Forecast TrendAssumptions Forecast Preferences Simulation Simulation Window Chart Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball174。Recall the Walton Bookstore example: It is August, and they must decide how many of next year’s nature calendars to order. Each calendar costs the booksto
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