【正文】 Mobile munications indicators Michael Minges World Tele/ICT Indicators Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 1011 February 2020 Mobile munications developments Increasing demand for additional mobile indicators ? Mobile passes fixed – In almost all countries there are now more mobile than fixedline telephone subscribers. Greater analysis of mobile market to analyze this trend, requiring additional indicators. ? Mobile termination – Mobile termination rates have bee subject of intense regulatory debate in many countries. Requires a number of indicators to analyze properly. ? Mobile multimedia – Use of mobile phones for nonvoice applications is growing. Highspeed and 3G technologies offer considerable scope for providing access to Inter from mobile works. A new set of indicators is emerging to track this. Mobile passes fixed ? Mobile passed fixed in 2020 globally。 since then the gap has grown ? Today almost every country has more mobile than fixed line subscribers ? Mobile sector is at least (if not more) as important to analyze as fixed 05001 39。0 0 01 39。5 0 02 39。0 0 02 39。5 0 02020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020F i x e dM o b i l eWorldwide fixedline and mobile telephone subscribers, millions Source: TMG, Inc. (2020 estimate and 2020 forecast). Fine tuning mobile peration ? Peration (subscribers 247。 population * 100) is the most widely used mobile indicator ? At end 2020, three countries already exceeded 100 ? Important to be precise about subscribers – Taiwan: 2030% have 2nd SIM card – Hong Kong: 24% of prepaid nonactive – Israel: ~ 20% double counted (due to churn and ―liberal‖ counting policies) or nonresident subscribers ? Surveybased data may be more useful indicator 75100125T a i w a n H o n g Ko n g I s ra e lO ri g i n a lA d j u s t e d80859095100F i n l a n d Sw e d e n N o rw a yM o b i l e p e n e t ra t i o n M o b i l e u s eMobile subscribers per 100 inhabitants, 2020 Note: Age ranges for mobile use: Finland: 1574, Sweden: 1675, Norway: 979. Source: TMG, Inc. adapted from national regulatory amp。 national statistical agencies. Mobile passes fixed Universal service implications ? Mobile is increasingly supplanting fixed for universal service ? Universal service is measured by % of households with a telephone ? Useful indicators for tracking universal service: – Percentage of households with fixed and mobile – Percentage of households with only fixed – Percentage of households with only mobile 0 10 20 30 40 50USUKF ra n c eC h i l e * *So u t h A f ri c a *F i n l a n dJ a m a i c aF i x e d o n l y