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reversed by wars and depression.? 1945–present: economies rely on telephones, airplanes, puters, inter, fiber optics, PDAs, GPS satellites… 11自 1830年以來的國(guó)際貿(mào)易的上升、下降再上升Source: Richard E. Baldwin and Phillipe Martin, “Two Waves of Globalization: Superficial Similarities, Fundamental Differences,” in Horst Siebert, ed., Globalization and Labor (Tubingen: Mohr, 1999). 20年來比一戰(zhàn)前更重要。,美國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易在其經(jīng)濟(jì)中的重要性,遠(yuǎn)不如 19世紀(jì)大部分時(shí)間里英國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易。12Changing Composition of Trade 貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的改變? Today, most of the volume of trade is in manufactured products such as automobiles, puters, clothing and machinery.? In the past, a large fraction of the volume of trade came from agricultural and mineral products.? Low and middleine countries have also changed the position of their trade.13The Composition of World Trade, 2023Source: World Trade Organization14The Changing Composition of DevelopingCountry ExportsSource: United Nations Council on Trade and Development 15Service Outsourcing 服務(wù)外包? 服務(wù)外包:曾經(jīng)必須在國(guó)內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)的服務(wù)現(xiàn)在可以在國(guó)外實(shí)現(xiàn)。16Tradable Industries’ Share of Employment可貿(mào)易產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)比重Source: J. Bradford Jensen and Lori G. Kletzer, “Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of Services Outsourcing,” Peterson Institute of Economics Working Paper 509, May 2023 17 Basis for the Theories of International Trade: Methods of Analysis Framwork of Models 理論的微觀基礎(chǔ):分析方法和模型框架? 國(guó)際貿(mào)易理論的研究對(duì)象與目的? 國(guó)際貿(mào)易理論研究方法的特點(diǎn)? 主要分析工具? 一般均衡(封閉條件、開放條件的比較)? 貿(mào)易利益(重點(diǎn))18? 國(guó)際貿(mào)易: 商品及勞務(wù)的跨國(guó)流動(dòng);商品貿(mào)易和要素貿(mào)易。? 研究對(duì)象: 世界范圍內(nèi)的資源配置問題? 理論基礎(chǔ): 微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)國(guó)際貿(mào)易理論的研究對(duì)象與目的狹義 廣義研究?jī)蓚€(gè)或者兩個(gè)以上經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)之間的資源配置問題研究單個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的資源配置問題19? 區(qū)分國(guó)際貿(mào)易與國(guó)內(nèi)貿(mào)易的目的 :1. 生產(chǎn)要素在國(guó)際間和國(guó)內(nèi)的流動(dòng)程度的差別;2. 現(xiàn)實(shí)中人為的貿(mào)易障礙對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和福利的影響。? 研究方法分類:1. 實(shí)證分析 (positive analysis):是什么?2. 規(guī)范分析 (normative analysis):應(yīng)該是什么?國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中,較多采用實(shí)證分析而較少采用規(guī)范分析例如各國(guó)制度、法律、語言、文化、宗教和習(xí)俗因素,限制勞動(dòng)力的國(guó)際流動(dòng)例如政府通過設(shè)置關(guān)稅和非關(guān)稅壁壘限制進(jìn)口針對(duì)現(xiàn)象提供理論分析框架針對(duì)現(xiàn)象進(jìn)行價(jià)值判斷20國(guó)際貿(mào)易研究方法的特點(diǎn)? 國(guó)際貿(mào)易理論分析不涉及貨幣和貨幣制度差異? 分析框架上,理論模型大都 222? 多采用一般均衡分析方法? 大多數(shù)是靜態(tài)或比較靜態(tài)分析,時(shí)間因素在國(guó)際貿(mào)易