academic-english-growing-grey-文庫吧
2025-06-24 12:44 本頁面
【正文】 opulation was living (United Nations, 2005)3 More old and very old people Ageing of the population is mainly caused by the worldwide phenomenon of fertility decline, which is bringing about widespread but variable reductions in the percentage of young people. It is augmented by increased life expectancy. The number of those aged 60 and over in the world is increasing by about 2% annually, faster than younger age groups. In 2000, there were approximately three times as many people aged 60 and over in the world as in 1950。 by 2050 they are expected to triple again to reach 22% of the world total, or almost billion. Eight out of ten of them will be living in the developing world. Naturally, the percentage of old people ( Figure 1)and their rate of increase varies among countries. In 2005, those aged 60 and over ranged from more than 25% in Japan, Italy and Germany to less than 5% in most tropical African countries and in the oilrich countries in the Middle East that attract numerous young workers. By 2050, the range is expected to be even wider from more than 40% in Japan( which has the longest life expectancy in the world), Italy, the Republic of Korea and Slovenia to still less than 5% in a few African countries (Equatorial Guinea, Liberia and Swaziland). Broadly, ageing of population is fastest in countries with rapid fertility decline (., China, the Republic of Korea, Tunisia, Iran and Algeria), and slowest in the least developed countries of tropical Africa (., Niger, Uganda) that have experienced limited fertility decline. These contrasts between countries are much the same if the 65year threshold is used. In this ageing process the UK is about average for a developed country. In 2005, 21% of the UK population were aged 60 and over, and this is expected to rise to 29% in 2050. By this time. some developed countries will have two elderly people for every child.The geographical differences are even more striking among the oldest age groups, whose rates of growth are more rapid still. UN projections indicate that the world population of oldestold aged 80 and over is increasing by % annually. It is expected to grow from 87 million (% of the world total) in 2005 to 394 million (% of the total) in 2050, 70% of this group living in the developed world. In India and China this group may number 100 million and 53 million respectively by 2050. However much higher percentages of oldestold are likely to be found in some developed countries: more than 15% in Japan and Italy, and up to 9% in the UK (Figure 2) In contrast, many African populations will still have less than 1% of their populations aged 80 and over. The 2001 census in the UK gives more than million people (%) aged 85 and over. This is times the number counted 50 years earlier at the 1951 ce
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