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【正文】 policy could be effective in the short run but not in the long run. Figure 3 The LongRun Phillips Curve Unemployment Rate 0 Natural rate of unemployment Inflation Rate Longrun Phillips curve B High inflation Low inflation A 2. . . . but unemployment remains at its natural rate in the long run. 1. When the Fed increases the growth rate of the money supply, the rate of inflation increases . . . Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Figure 4 How the Phillips Curve is Related to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Quantity of Output Natural rate of output Natural rate of unemployment 0 Price Level P Aggregate demand, AD Longrun aggregate supply Longrun Phillips curve (a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Unemployment Rate 0 Inflation Rate (b) The Phillips Curve 2. . . . raises the price level . . . 1. An increase in the money supply increases aggregate demand . . . A AD2 B A 4. . . . but leaves output and unemployment at their natural rates. 3. . . . and increases the inflation rate . . . P2 B Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Expectations and the ShortRun Phillips Curve ? Expected inflation measures how much people expect the overall price level to change. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Expectations and the ShortRun Phillips Curve ? In the long run, expected inflation adjusts to changes in actual inflation. ? The Fed’s ability to create unexpected inflation exists only in the short run. ? Once people anticipate inflation, the only way to get unemployment below the natural rate is for actual inflation to be above the anticipated rate. Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern ? This equation relates the unemployment rate to the natural rate of unemployment, actual inflation, and expected inflation. Expectations and the ShortRun Phillips Curve ? ?N a t u r a l r a t e o f u n e m p l o y m e n t a A c t u a l i n f l a t i o n E x p e c t e d i n f l a t i o n?Unemployment Rate = Figure 5 How Expected Inflation Shifts the ShortRun Phillips Curve Unemployment Rate 0 Natural rate of unemployment Inflation Rate Longrun Phillips curve Shortrun Phillips curve with high expected inflation Shortrun Phillips curve with low expected inflation 1. Expansionary policy moves the economy up along the shortrun Phillips curve . . . 2. . . . but in the long run, expected inflation rises, and the shortrun Phillips curve shifts to the right. C B A Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern The Natural Experiment for the NaturalRate Hypothesis ? The view that unemployment eventually returns to its natural rate, regardless of the rate of inflation, i
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