【正文】 6 85 851075816021830020581290 * 05 forecast use low case, subs after inactive and multisimcard reduction ** Major European countries include: UK, France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden Source: JP Man。 WEFAWMM。 MII。 McKinsey analysis Japan CHINA IS THE WORLD’S LARGEST MARKET IN TERMS OF SUBSCRIBERS, HAVING OVERTAKEN THE US IN 2022 US Major European** countries CAGR = 30% CAGR = 14% CAGR = 7% Number of mobile subscribers Millions CAGR = 13% 2022 2022 China – low case* China – high case* CAGR = 22% 02 PD China Mobile Teles Service Industry 7 CHINA’S MOBILE SUBSCRIBER BASE IS GROWING MORE RAPIDLY THAN ANY OTHER MAJOR MARKET, COMPRISING 15% OF WORLD TOTAL IN 2022 * Afirca, Eastern Europe, Middle East, Canada ** Forecast of 0205 use the high case, subs after inactive and multisimcard reduction Source: JP Man。 Gartner 2022。 Deutsche Bank。 Merrill Lynch。 Piper Jaffray 8610 1012 1215 168912151817 161626 252320201919 20206 78 91012131313272318 1513121111112831 3234302725 24231661997 1998 1999 2022 2022E 207 300 482 727 965 1,178 1,393 1,633 100% = Global mobile subscribers Million subscribers。 percent Western Europe US South and Latin Japan and Asia Pacific China** Rest of world* CAGR 19972022 percent 29 18 45 28 47 45 2022E 2022E 2022E 2022E 1,850 02 PD China Mobile Teles Service Industry 8 3 8 . 82 0 . 4 2 0 . 7 2 1 . 0CHINA’S MOBILE MARKET IS PROJECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY * 0205 forecast are subs after inactive and multisimcard reduction Source: IDC report。 JP Man report。 McKinsey analysis Net subscriber* additions Millions 1997 1998 1999 2022 2022 2022E 2022E 2022E 2022E – 108 47 133 9 8 47 1 1 Annual growth Percent 1 2 3 7 9 12 13 15 16 Peration Percent Low case High case Low – 108 47 103 9 22 5 1 3 High Low High 1 2 3 7 9 12 16 19 23 02 PD China Mobile Teles Service Industry 9 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% CHINA’S SUBSCRIBER BASE OF 218 MILLION IMPLIES A 47% PENETRATION OF AN ADDRESSABLE MARKET OF 460 MILLION BY 2022 * Low case, subs after inactive and multisimcard reduction Source: JP Man。 DRI。 。 Literature search。 Analyst reports。 Team analysis Ine per capita (US$ .) 2022 Addressable market Number of mobile subscribers Implied peration of the addressable market 2022E 345 mn 145 mn 42% 463 mn 218 mn* 47% China ine distribution and addressable market Percent 1,815 1,772 2022 2022 ? China’s addressable population for mobile services is projected to increase by 8% . for the next five years to 460 million in 2022 ? The key assumptions in determining the ine threshold are: –Chinese consumers willing to spend 510%% of their ine on munication services – higher than the average of % for more developed markets as a greater portion of ine is available for nonessential goods as a result of China’s relatively low living cost –Half of this assumed spent on mobile services (%) –Uni’s prepaid ARPU will decrease from USD for 2022 to USD for 2022。 therefore the threshold ine will drop from USD 1,815 (*12/%) for 2022 to USD 1,772 for 2022 (*12/%) 2022 Addressable market: 35% Addressable population: 460 mn persons 2022 Addressable market: 27% Addressable population: 345 mn persons Percent of population 02 PD China Mobile Teles Service Industry 10 MOBILE SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION OF LESS THAN 7% IN 2022, LEAVES SIGNIFICANT ROOM FOR GROWTH Source: JP Man。 IDC report。 Gartner。 Literature search, EIU 100% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2022 2022E 2022E 2022E 2022E 2022E Mobile subscriber peration in 2022 Percent 7 3 .07 1 .56 7 .96 7 .46 1 .65 8 .94 9 .53 9 .06 .81 9 .0Italy Sweden Netherlands UK Spain Germany France US China** All subscribers Data service subscribers 1,218 1,230 1,242 1,254 1,265 1,276 1,287 1,298 1,309 1,319 As percentage of total population – low case* Millions (total population) China Urban*** * 0205 forecast are subs after inactive and multisimcard reduction ** Peration over total population *** Peration over urban population. 02 PD China Mobile Teles Service Industry 11 CHINA’S RICHER PROVINCES GENERALLY HAVE MORE SUSCRIBERS AND ARE GREATER PENETRATED… 596582987215882977790751188569573 . 03 . 51 3 . 36 . 34 . 46 . 73 . 65 . 84 . 73 . 22 . 82 . 82 . 83 . 12 . 92 5 .02 4 .71 8 .61 4 .21 3 .31 1 .39 .78 .15 .34 .94 .84 .74 .33 .83 .2Population Millions 1 2 .01 4 .27 1 .54 4 .43 3 .15 9 .33 7 .17 1 .68 8 .76 5 .35 8 .35 9 .66 5 .18 1 .69 0 .6Peration Percent, 2022 Subscriber CAGR Percent, 19982022 Number of subscribers Millions Province Guangdong Liaoning Zhejiang Jiangsu Shandong Fujian Heilongjiang Shanghai Hebei Sichuan Beijing Henan Anhui Hubei Hunan Source: China Statistical yearbook, JP Man Report, McKinsey analysis 02 PD China Mobile Teles Service Industry 12 …WHILE THE POOR WESTERN AND INTERIOR PROVINCES HAVE LESS SUBSCRIBERS AND ARE LESS PENETRATED * Growth rate from 1999 2022 Source: China Statistical yearbook, JP Man Report, McKinsey analysis 1 .32 .30 .61 .10 .21 .30 .71 .71 .41 .31 .70 .90 .11 .00 .10 .661967391412787106878084183580*n . a .73Population Millions 9 .62 7 .48 .12 3 .44 .43 0 .21 7 .14 2 .53 5 .03 2 .54 5 .92 6 .73 .44 3 .54 .33 7