【正文】
stylized fact is that China’s share in the world’s exports is also increasing as discussed in Rodrik (2020). See also Schott (2020) for a related approach. According to Lai (2020) Chinese foreign trade success lies in the marketoriented reforms of the economy, appropriate exchange rate and trade policies and the active participation of foreign invested Zhang and Zhang (2020) show that the significant improvement of international petitiveness in China’s manufacturing sector is due mainly to total factor productivity3 and labor productivity. China has bee one of the world’s biggest trading powers accounting for 6% of global trade flows, being the world’s fourth largest exporter in 2020. This has been coupled with a phenomenal success in terms of the growth rate of output. Since 1980 China has grown at an average rate of around 10% per year. The growth of China is well above other regions, averaging % in the period 19912020. In this paper we advance a plausible explanation for this set of facts relating Chinese export expansion, output growth, and the oil price. Our hypothesis is that China’s growth has been a driving force behind the oil price increase. However, given the elastic labor supply due to the large reserves of workforce of the Chinese economy, the oil price increase harms China’s export capacity less than that of its petitors. The rapid expansion of Chinese exports, on the other hand, has to do with its phenomenal. Competitiveness as advanced by Rodrik’s (2020) measure of relative petitiveness. As a 溫州大學(xué)商學(xué)院本科畢業(yè)論文 4 consequence, we observe that both oil prices and China’s exports increase over time. Of course, there are other possible explanations for the simultaneous increase in China’s exports and oil prices. For instance, another hypothesis, not necessarily opposed to ours, is that Chinese exports are not energy intensive, that is, oil is not a significant input in its production and, therefore, increases in oil prices have little effect in production costs and exports’ prices. Whether or not this hypothesis makes sense is not the object of this paper. Our aim is to test the idea that China’s growth has an impact on oil prices that affects more its export petitors given the large labor force surplus of China. This hypothesis is backed by evidence in Eichengreen et al. (2020), which shows that Chinese exports crowd out the exports of other Asian countries mainly in markets for consumer goods. RolandHolst and Weiss (2020) find that China’s exports are eroding the market share of its regional neighbors in the . and Japan [see also Lall and Albaladejo (2020)]. Phelps (2020) argues that China’s exports growth is detrimental for less advanced economies, especially Latin America, since Chinese petition has drastically worsened terms of trade, decreasing Latin America’s parative advantage. Another factor behind Chinese exports’ strength lies in the productivity gains of its work force. Xiaodi and Xiaozhong (2020) show that laborintensive products form the largest ratio of Chinese exports, which is due to China’s almost unlimited supply of One implication of the excess of supply of labor is that China can increase substantially the employment of its work force in the exports sector without i