【正文】 .................................................................. 6 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 ................................................................................................................................ 6 大型社會(huì)活動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ................................................................................................................ 6 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn) .............................................................................................................. 7 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征 ............................................................................................................... 7 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)構(gòu)成 ........................................................................................................... 9 “實(shí)體 ”學(xué)派思維下的球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)構(gòu)成 ..................................................................... 9 從 “建構(gòu) ”學(xué)派思維角度看待球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)構(gòu)成 ...................................................... 11 哲學(xué)視野下球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)屬性與趨勢(shì)分析 ...................................................................... 11 從必然性與偶 然性的關(guān)系中認(rèn)識(shí)球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的屬性 .......................................... 11 從可能性與現(xiàn)實(shí)性的關(guān)系上認(rèn)識(shí)球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的趨勢(shì) .......................................... 11 3 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生模型 ........................................................................................................ 12 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件鏈 ......................................................................................................... 12 基于 TPB 的球場(chǎng)觀眾 “暴力意向 —暴力行為 ”過(guò)程分析 ......................................................... 13 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)社會(huì)放大效應(yīng) .............................................................................................. 14 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生模型 ..................................................................................................... 16 4 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別 ................................................................................................................ 17 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的基本內(nèi)容 .......................................................................................... 17 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素分析 ...................................................................................... 18 國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究 ................................................................................................................... 18 基于 FTA 的球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素分析 ......................................................... 19 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素之間相關(guān)關(guān)系 .............................................................................. 22 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別方法 ..................................................................................................... 23 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別工具 ............................................................................................... 23 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別方法 ............................................................................................... 24 5 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 ................................................................................................................ 28 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的基本理論 .......................................................................................... 28 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的內(nèi)容 ................................................................................................. 29 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的方法 ................................................................................................ 29 6 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì) ................................................................................................................ 32 選擇球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制手段的原則 ................................................................................ 32 區(qū)別對(duì)待原則 ——針對(duì)事件的不同性質(zhì) ......................................................................... 32 優(yōu)先原則 ——根據(jù)帕累托分析結(jié)果排序 ........................................................................... 33 “事件 —方法 ”對(duì)應(yīng)原則 ——根據(jù)事件的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的目的 ............................ 34 4 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制手段的實(shí)施 .......................................................................................... 35 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回避 ............................................................................................................................... 35 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移 .............................................................................................................................. 35 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制 ............................................................................................................................... 36 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)自留 .............................................................................................................................. 38 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)體系 .................................................................................................. 39 7 結(jié)論 .................................................................................................................................................... 40 參考文獻(xiàn)： ............................................................................................................................................ 41 附件 1：《球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)檢查表》 ............................................................................................... 45 附件 2：《球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估表》（管理者用） ......................................................................... 49 附件 3：《球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)調(diào)查問(wèn)卷》 ........................................................................................... 52 5 1 引言 競(jìng)技 體育被認(rèn)為是和平年代沒(méi)有硝煙的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，球場(chǎng)上的觀眾暴力現(xiàn)象更是波及世界各地的多項(xiàng)體育運(yùn)動(dòng)，已經(jīng)成為世界性的社會(huì)問(wèn)題 [1]。 risk identification。 關(guān)鍵詞 ： 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力；模型； 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì) 2 Study on Risk Management of the Field Abstract: From the view of risk, the field spectator violence was discussed. Based on the Transmitting Model, this paper made study on the management system of the risk of field spectator violence. The result showed that firstly the field spectator violence belonged to largescale social events which had distinctive features such as objectivity, sudden, dynamic and continuity. Secondly, the risk of field spectator violence was constituted with risk factors of field spe