【正文】 ..................................................... 49 本章小結(jié) ......................................................... 50 第 5 章 輸配管道風(fēng)險評價指標及其權(quán)重確定 .............................. 51 管道失效 因 素的評價指標 及其等級劃分標準 ........................... 51 第三方破壞 .................................................. 51 腐蝕 ........................................................ 54 設(shè)計 ........................................................ 60 操作 ........................................................ 62 管道失效 后果的評價指標 及其等級劃分標準 ........................... 64 評價指標權(quán)重的確定 ............................................... 66 判斷矩陣廣義一致性變換的定義與性質(zhì) .......................... 67 與相關(guān)文獻中有關(guān)結(jié)論的對比分析及幾點思考 .................... 72 基于分辨率的權(quán)重公式 ........................................ 74 求解各評價指標的權(quán)重 ........................................ 74 本章小結(jié) ......................................................... 79 第 6 章 基于集對分析的風(fēng)險綜合評價方法研究 ............................ 82 基于五元聯(lián)系數(shù)的風(fēng)險綜合評價方法 .................................. 82 集對理論概述 ................................................ 82 風(fēng)險的同異反評價模型 ........................................ 83 風(fēng)險的趨勢分析 .............................................. 84 集對勢 ...................................................... 86 應(yīng)用舉例 .................................................... 86 勢級的風(fēng)險矩陣表征方法 ...................................... 92 基于三元聯(lián)系數(shù)矩陣的風(fēng)險綜合評價方法 .............................. 93 III 失效后果與失效可 能性的同異反評價模型 ........................ 93 基于聯(lián)系數(shù)的風(fēng)險矩陣 ........................................ 94 聯(lián)系數(shù)的態(tài)勢排序 ............................................ 94 風(fēng)險的趨勢分 析 .............................................. 94 應(yīng)用舉例 .................................................... 96 本章小結(jié) ......................................................... 98 第 7 章 城市燃氣輸配管道的風(fēng)險管理 ................................... 100 城市燃氣輸配管道風(fēng)險管理的概念及主要環(huán)節(jié) ........................ 100 風(fēng)險評估 ................................................... 101 制定風(fēng)險控制對策 ........................................... 102 實施控制對策 ............................................... 103 建立城市燃氣管道的地理信息系統(tǒng) .................................. 104 本章小結(jié) ........................................................ 105 第 8 章 結(jié)論與展望 ................................................. 105 本文的研究成果 .................................................. 105 不足與展望 ...................................................... 106 致 謝 ........................................................... 107 參考文獻 .......................................................... 108 附錄 1 ............................................................ 116 附錄 2 ............................................................ 117 附錄 3 ............................................................ 119 附錄 4 ............................................................ 123 攻讀博士學(xué)位期間發(fā)表的論文及科研成果 ................................ 125 西南石油大學(xué)博士研究生學(xué)位論文 1 第 1 章 緒論 問題的提出 城市燃氣是一種清潔、優(yōu)質(zhì)、高效能源。fault tree analysis。 關(guān)鍵詞 ： 城市燃氣輸配管道 ； 風(fēng)險評價； 故障樹 分析 ；模糊 一致矩陣 ；集對分析 ABSTRACT With the accelerated process of urbanization in our country,remarkable advances have been made in city gas the same time,pipeline leakage and explosion are happening around with increasing frequency,which does not only result in heavy loss in the lives and properties of the people,but also leads to a significant influence on a healthy development of city gas business in ,how to scientifically identify,evaluate and effectively control the risk of city gas transmission and distribution pipelines had already bee an urgent task to be tackled in city gas engineering. Based on a systematical analysis of risk assessment of the city gas pipelines, the present paper makes an integrated use of such related theories, methods and technology as city gas distribution projects, risk assessment, fuzzy math, set pair theory analysis, etc., to conduct a detailed study on risk identification and evaluation methods of gas pipelines. Hopefully, the author intends to bring out some suggestions and provide technical assistance in the pipeline construction and operation management. The main results of this paper are as follows: (1) After giving a prehensive analysis of the structural features of city gas transmission and distribution pipeline, the author firstly establishes a fault tree for city gas pipeline failure factors with the adoption of Fault Tree analysis, and then presents a formula to calculate the importance rating of basic pipeline events on the basis of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. (2) Secondly, for consequence analysis, a leakage, explosion and damage model of city gas transmission and distribution pipeline is analyzed. Practical instances are also simulated to find gas leaking concentration range, as well as the damage radius by the light of leakage. (3) Starting with the four aspects: third party damage, corrosion, design and operation, the present paper establishes a failure factors evaluation index system and its , starting with the two aspects: product harmfulness and diffusion effect, the present paper establishes a failure consequence evaluation index system and its grade. for city gas transmission and distribution pipeline, presents a method for determining the weight of city gas transmission and distribution pipeline index based on generalized consistency transformation of the matrix. (4) In view of the certainty and uncertainty in the risk assessment of gas pipeline, as well as the static characteristic of the conventional methods, the Set pair analysis is introduced to deal with the risk evaluation based on fiveelement connection number. The evaluation can not only be used to perform an analysis of possible risk situation, but also predict its developing trend. (5) While a