【正文】 ong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 21深赤灣 : 審慎推薦投資主題 : ? 良好的盈利能力 — 凈資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率居同業(yè)之首。? 考慮港區(qū)未來的發(fā)展及 A、 H股整合帶來的投資機(jī)會(huì)，我們認(rèn)為天津港仍具較高的投資價(jià)值。This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 20天津港 : 高 估值 不損長期投資價(jià)值資料來源 : 彭博資訊，中金公司研究部? 天津港目前股價(jià)相當(dāng)于202 2023年市盈率 （考慮資產(chǎn)注入影響） 倍及 ，在 A股交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施中處于較高的水平。? 作為國資委系列的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)及天津港股份的董事長，于汝民先生上任天津港發(fā)展（商務(wù)委員會(huì)系列公司）的董事長給市場(chǎng)強(qiáng)烈的有關(guān) A股、 H股上市公司整合的暗示。This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 19天津港： A股、 H股上市公司整合資料來源 : 公司數(shù)據(jù) , 中金公司研究部? 在同一港區(qū)兩個(gè)上市公司進(jìn)行同業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)（集裝箱業(yè)務(wù)）的格局不利于港區(qū)的長期發(fā)展。? 目前臨港工業(yè)園的股權(quán)比重仍未最終確定，但我們預(yù)計(jì)天津港集團(tuán)實(shí)現(xiàn)參股乃至控股的可能性仍比較大。預(yù)計(jì)到 2023年，臨港工業(yè)區(qū)將實(shí)現(xiàn)銷售收入 1000億元， GDP達(dá)到 300億元以上。? 南疆散雜貨物流中心：配合“北煤南移 ”的策略轉(zhuǎn)移，天津港集團(tuán)投資開發(fā)了南疆散雜貨物流中心，占地約 13平方公里。? 我們預(yù)計(jì)資產(chǎn)收購后，公司 202 2023年每股盈利分別為 ，對(duì)應(yīng)增厚效應(yīng)46%及 58%。 ? 于天津港區(qū)集裝箱吞吐量的市場(chǎng)份額將由 2023年的 47%上升 6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至 2023年的 53%。 This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 天津港集裝箱吞吐量及產(chǎn)能利用率15天津港： 天津港集裝箱分泊位吞吐量預(yù)測(cè)資料來源 : 中金公司研究部? 2023年公司投資 元投資北港池 3期合資公司，占 51%股權(quán)，預(yù)計(jì)于 2023年下半年投產(chǎn)，建成后將成為港區(qū)最大的集裝箱項(xiàng)目。? 我們預(yù)計(jì)天津口岸集裝箱吞吐量將于 “十一五 ”期間年復(fù)合增長 %，于 2023年達(dá)到 1,308萬TEU，對(duì)產(chǎn)能利用率形成強(qiáng)烈的支撐。? 集裝箱吞吐量增長相對(duì)進(jìn)出口總值的彈性在2023年見底之后呈現(xiàn)明顯回升趨勢(shì)，預(yù)計(jì)天津口岸進(jìn)出口結(jié)構(gòu)仍將繼續(xù)升級(jí)，進(jìn)一步推動(dòng)集裝箱吞吐量實(shí)現(xiàn)快于進(jìn)出口總值的增長。 This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission. 13天津港： 進(jìn)出口結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)整體利好集裝箱吞吐量的增長速度資料來源 : CEIC,中金公司研究部? 2023年～ 2023年期間，天津市進(jìn)出口結(jié)構(gòu)出現(xiàn)較為明顯的升級(jí)趨勢(shì)：機(jī)械及運(yùn)輸設(shè)備進(jìn)出口占比由 2023年的 55%上升至 2023年的 63%。? 口岸進(jìn)出口總值相對(duì)腹地 GDP的彈性由 2023年的 2023年的。? “十一五 ”期間，腹地經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展將極大推動(dòng)天津口岸進(jìn)出口總值的增長，從而為天津港貨物吞吐量帶來貨源支持。 This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or plete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of panies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those panies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this document belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by an