【正文】 二銨NPK備注2004200520062007200820092010根據(jù)市場調(diào)查，目前新疆各口岸無進口三元復合肥，市場也沒有進口的三元復合肥銷售。2001年至2002年我國進口復合肥的平均價格在160～193美元之間。在較長的時間里，中國所施用的化肥還將有20%左右靠進口解決。世界各國對復合肥生產(chǎn)的重視，也反映了復合肥的發(fā)展前景良好。表21 世界復合肥消費預測 單位:萬噸 （折純）20032004200520062007200820092010歐 洲14131427143114351434143814381439獨聯(lián)體171171171171176176176181非 洲288304316326334351359中 東3537373737373737亞 洲18001854196520252084217122632305大洋洲6666666767676767北美洲10471047104710471047104710471047南美洲191192192193合 計499650975224530054735628從表21世界復合肥消費預測可看出，今后十年，世界復合肥消費有一定的增長，其中亞洲復合肥的需求量增長最快。鉀肥以俄羅斯和加拿大居多。二、需求分析國際復合肥市場預測據(jù)分析，今后十年內(nèi)，世界化肥生產(chǎn)和消費增長緩慢，氮肥平均增長率約1%，磷肥、鉀肥增長率約2%，聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織(FAO)、聯(lián)合國工發(fā)組織(UNIDO)和世界銀行等組織預測，2004～2005年世界化肥供應量約為15000萬噸，其中氮肥8895萬噸，磷肥3640萬噸，鉀肥2455萬噸，化肥生產(chǎn)和使用的氮磷鉀比例穩(wěn)定在1::。物理性質(zhì)要好。品種要多。富裕起來的農(nóng)民日益注重提高勞動生產(chǎn)率和經(jīng)濟效益，大力發(fā)展高產(chǎn)、高效、優(yōu)質(zhì)農(nóng)業(yè)，對化肥的品種和質(zhì)量提出了更高的要求，這些要求主要表現(xiàn)在以下三個方面：濃度要高。發(fā)展高濃度復合肥料生產(chǎn)是化肥工業(yè)發(fā)展進程的必由之路。積極發(fā)展生物肥、生化有機肥，把化肥產(chǎn)業(yè)升級為農(nóng)肥產(chǎn)業(yè)。把鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)供銷社和農(nóng)業(yè)三站作為化肥的代銷點，并以契約和信息技術聯(lián)系起來，組成生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡、營銷網(wǎng)絡、服務網(wǎng)絡和開發(fā)網(wǎng)絡。在經(jīng)營結(jié)構(gòu)方面，應把計劃經(jīng)濟時代的化肥生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整為市場經(jīng)濟的經(jīng)營結(jié)構(gòu)，把賣方市場的經(jīng)營結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整為買方市場的經(jīng)營結(jié)構(gòu)。生產(chǎn)復合肥料、涂層肥料、硝酸鉀肥等；三是適合農(nóng)業(yè)需求的各種專用肥、摻混肥生產(chǎn)體系。在產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)方面，我國化肥工業(yè)應迅速建立三個生產(chǎn)體系：一是大宗單質(zhì)肥生產(chǎn)體系。我國化肥行業(yè)進行調(diào)整已勢在必行。三是由于化肥產(chǎn)品的使用不合理，使得部分水體受到不同程度的污染，也嚴重影響了環(huán)境。二是我國化肥生產(chǎn)一直以氮肥為主，磷、鉀肥所占比重較小。一是我國化肥生產(chǎn)中以低濃度單質(zhì)速溶化肥為主，化肥的養(yǎng)分釋放速度不能人為控制，釋放速度太快使作物來不及吸收，造成肥料的有效成分損失嚴重。通過對復合肥企業(yè)宏觀營銷環(huán)境、行業(yè)競爭環(huán)境以及自身的優(yōu)勢劣勢進行分析，認為烏石化復合肥產(chǎn)品營銷應從4P與4C結(jié)合的角度出發(fā)來考慮，即：應以能夠滿足特定目標消費群的需求為導向的產(chǎn)品策略、以滿足消費者需要所付出的成本為導向的價格策略、以提高消費者購物便利性為導向的渠道策略、以溝通為導向的促銷策略為主來實施。復合肥對烏石化總廠來說是一個新的產(chǎn)品，需要一個全面深入的了解，并根據(jù)市場情況，制訂該產(chǎn)品的市場營銷策略。 根據(jù)石油化工行業(yè)自身的特點及優(yōu)勢，烏魯木齊石油化工總廠在做了大量的調(diào)查研究，充分論證的前提下，烏魯木齊石油化工總廠決定在2004年新建30萬噸復合肥裝置。非上市部分(總廠)面臨人員多、優(yōu)良資產(chǎn)少、生產(chǎn)能力低、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展緩慢的諸多問題。競爭的加劇和需求內(nèi)涵的改變都對化肥生產(chǎn)企業(yè)提出了更高的要求。隨著化肥消費量的增加，各種類型的肥料產(chǎn)品逐漸投放到不同區(qū)域、不同類型的銷售場所中，農(nóng)民有了更多的選擇余地，化肥生產(chǎn)企業(yè)之間的競爭也因此而愈演愈烈。還有的企業(yè)效益觀念不正確，把自身的利潤追求與消費者利益、經(jīng)銷商利益、社會利益對立起來，一切以我為中心，久而久之，企業(yè)的形象和聲譽受到影響，企業(yè)的生存環(huán)境和空間開始惡化，企業(yè)的長期生存和發(fā)展遇到了嚴重的環(huán)境阻礙。從這個意義上說，來自企業(yè)自身，來自市場，來自競爭的發(fā)展動力才是最根本的和最持久的。其實從根本上說，在市場經(jīng)濟條件下，政府的扶持和保護只能是短暫的。就產(chǎn)品開發(fā)而言，許多世界著名化肥企業(yè)的技術儲備大多在8年以上，而中國企業(yè)技術儲備達到3年的都很少。對營銷還停留在最簡單、最原始的產(chǎn)品推銷階段，以把產(chǎn)品銷出去、把貨款收回來為最高目標?；噬a(chǎn)企業(yè)只負責生產(chǎn)，不了解市場信息和需求，農(nóng)資部門也不關心服務，因為沒有競爭對手，直到《國務院關于深化化肥流通體制改革的通知》（國發(fā)[1998]39號）文件下發(fā)后，才將國家對化肥流通的管理由直接計劃管理為主改為間接管理為主，發(fā)揮市場配置化肥資源的基礎性作用，取消國產(chǎn)化肥指令性生產(chǎn)計劃和統(tǒng)配收購計劃，允許化肥生產(chǎn)企業(yè)和農(nóng)技推廣站、土肥站、植保站（以下簡稱農(nóng)業(yè)“三站”）從事化肥銷售。 Channel Strategy is to improve the shopping convenience of consumer, Sales promotion Strategy is put into practice by munication. Product StrategyProductWe elementarily make sure the extended production of the pound fertilizer in the primary market, when ing into shape phase we need to adjust the strategy of production. Trademarkin order to reduce the sale cost of pound fertilizer and buildup the power of market petition, we should still use “Tianchi” trademark to fully exert its advantage .Packing—we should chose high quality knittingbag and pack product into bags of different sizes to stand out “Tianchi” trademark.Service—“the more advanced product, the more particular and entirely service” and “enterprise is service” are the new marketing conception of modern enterprise. Firstly, establish the professional organization of agriculture service. Secondly, set up a high diathesis troop for service. Thirdly, setup rational demonstrationpot in objective market as an example to radiate circumjacent area. Fourthly, organize small unit of ag service go to countryside to develop some service such as measuring land, matching pound fertilizer and giving publicity to new product. Finally, set up consultation support for user at any time.Price StrategyIn our factory the market price of pound fertilizer should be pitched at a middle or high price level. Our price could have a little lower than domestic good trademark, but must higher than other trademarks and the price from other enterprise across the whole Xinjiang to pop out the advantages of our trademark and regional predominance.At the same time, in order to go in for most marketable share, we should give attention to two or more things from developing the scale of pound fertilizer market.On the basis of franchisee, secondary wholesaler and thirdclass retailer, the general system of whole distribution price, exwork price, trade price, group trade price and retail price should be established by supervisor of sale network, which could guarantee corresponded profit for every tache of whole network. In practice, we could set up a supervisory organization of all user in Xinjiang market by our factory to e on a suit of price, a system of market supervision, which could randomly go on a tour of market inspection at pound fertilizer midseason and establish a relationship of negotiation and supervision to keep stabilization of market.On the other side, the demanding of pound fertilizer in low season and midseason is very observably as the using season of Xinjiang pound fertilizer is very short. According buying winter store, associating store and sale, store and sale by self, we could reach the best benefit.Channel StrategyAt first, in Xinjiang we could chose the important region and bureau corps of yielding construction as the basic market and put up alloriented operating by means of franchiser and merchant.The length of channel: franchiseewholesalerretailer.The width of channel: we could adopt different width according to characteristic of every fractionized market. Depending on franchisee, we could set up different wholesaler, which only allow one in every single market. Through this method, the retail terminal of country and group in this area could be covered with merchant in maximum.Secondly, we need set up ourselves terminalnetwork of pound fertilizer, which should tally with china characteristic. That is setting up service system with sales channel and relevant organization such as logistic service center to represent UPC to serve for different franchiser and user .