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Policy Research Working Paper, WPS 3805, Washington DC, World Bank.[13] Datt, Gaurav and Ravallion, Martin, 1998, Farm Productivity and Rural Poverty in India, Journal of Development Studies 34: 6285.[14] Datt, Gaurav and Ravallion, Martin, 2002, Has India39。 【參考文獻(xiàn)】 [1] Aghion, Philippe, Caroli, Eva and GarciaPenalosa, Cecilia, 1999, Inequality and Economic Growth: The Perspectives of the New Growth Theories, Journal of Economic Literature, 37(4): 16151660.[2] Ahluwalia, Montek S., 2000, Economic Performance of States in PostReforms Period, Economic and Political Weekly, May 6, 2000.[3] Amiel, Yoram, and Frank Cowell, 1999, Thinking about Inequality: Personal Judgment and Ine Distributions, Cambridge, Mass.: Cambridge University Press.[4] Atkinson, Anthony B. and Andrea Brandolini, 2004, Global World Inequality: Absolute, Relative or Intermediate, mimeo, Nuffield College, Oxford University.[5] Au, ChunChung and J. Vernon Henderson, 2006, How Migration Restrictions Limit Agglomeration and Productivity in China, Journal of Development Economics 80: 350388.[6] Banerjee, Abhijit and Thomas Piketty, 2003, Top Indian ine: 19562000, mimeo, Department of Economics, MIT.[7] Bardhan, Pranab, 2005, The Nature of Opposition to Economic Reforms in India, Economic and Political Weekly, November 26.[8] Bhalla, Surjit, 2002, Imagine There39。(30)有研究指出了,在中國轉(zhuǎn)型初期,該體制改革刺激農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要作用(Fan, 1991。不同的環(huán)境中,表現(xiàn)并不一樣,甚至在一國內(nèi)部也是如此。(28)之前的類似觀點(diǎn)參見North(1990)和Hellman(1998)。中國的城鎮(zhèn)人口比重由1980年的19%提高到2002年的39%。(26)相關(guān)證據(jù)可參見世界銀行(2005)。(25)注意,將人力資本不均等視作“不利的”,這并不同于前面所說的某些結(jié)果上的不均等,例如工資差距拉大。(24)世界銀行(2005,第五章)回顧了這方面的討論,并提供了某些不均等低效的證據(jù),特別是,這些不均等導(dǎo)致發(fā)展機(jī)會(huì)的不均等。(22)若城市化效應(yīng)滯后一年,擬合度會(huì)提高,這是合理的。然而,只用20個(gè)觀測(cè)值(動(dòng)態(tài)設(shè)定中還要減少),還不清楚所得的動(dòng)態(tài)效應(yīng)有多么穩(wěn)健。(20)以絕對(duì)不均等概念評(píng)價(jià)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和改革的進(jìn)一步研究,參見Ravallion(2004a)以及Atkinson and Brandolini(2004)。本文寫作時(shí)我們只能獲得初步結(jié)果,但這些結(jié)果表明20世紀(jì)90年代初以來到2005年印度不均等程度一直在上升(見圖6),并可能在加速上升。(19)本文寫作時(shí),第61輪(2004/5年)NSS數(shù)據(jù)尚未公布。20世紀(jì)90年代的小樣本也說明不均等程度在增加(Ravallion,2000)。如果不做修正,2003年的基尼系數(shù)將超過45%,而非41%。(16)注意后一個(gè)結(jié)果低于以往的計(jì)算結(jié)果,這是因?yàn)槲覀儗?duì)調(diào)查的估價(jià)方法(前文曾提及)的變化和城鄉(xiāng)生活成本的差異進(jìn)行了修正。這說明增長率的(加權(quán))差異對(duì)減貧產(chǎn)生了影響。Ravallion and Chen(2007)提出的中國減貧模型在這個(gè)方向上做出了一些嘗試。注意,這些回歸最好被看成分解工具而非減貧的因果模型。通過與中國國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局工作人員的討論,我們認(rèn)識(shí)到這個(gè)問題在中國越來越突出。與這種影響相反,城鎮(zhèn)調(diào)查的回應(yīng)率似乎低于農(nóng)村地區(qū)。(12)還有其他數(shù)據(jù)問題影響城鄉(xiāng)差距的分析。⑩印度的情況參見Datt and Ravallion(1996,2002)以及Deaton and Dreze(2002),中國的情況參見Ravallion and Chen(2006)。⑨參見Chen and Fleisher(1996), Jian et al(1996), Sun and Dutta(1997), Raiser(1998)以及Kanbur and Zhang(1999)。⑧計(jì)量檢驗(yàn)表明,改革后,印度的增長率分化更加明顯。有關(guān)印度貧困測(cè)算的進(jìn)一步討論參見Ravallion(2000)。這種方法假設(shè)數(shù)據(jù)差異是分布中立的,但這很難保證。⑤Deaton and Kozel(2005)對(duì)這個(gè)問題以及印度貧困估算的相關(guān)問題做了許多有意義的研究。③這不是必然的,但對(duì)于美國的數(shù)據(jù),有一些這樣的情況(Korinek et al,2006)。這種做法在20世紀(jì)90年代被大范圍放棄,而傾向于采用本地零售價(jià)格估算。注釋:①20世紀(jì)90年代中期以前,糧食的政府采購價(jià)格一直低于市場價(jià)格。但更為嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)是要完善治理——能力、責(zé)任和回應(yīng)性——主要是(但不限于)地方層面。兩國的最新舉措可能將其引向正確的方向,但是還要開展持續(xù)的評(píng)估性研究以分析同其他方案相比這些方法的效果。相反,問題的解決還要看解決的具體方式,盡管(正如我們所說)糾正不利的不均等實(shí)際是有利于增長的,增長仍將可能付出一些短期的代價(jià)。無論不斷提高的不均等程度是否得以成功解決,其都可能對(duì)世界其他地方產(chǎn)生影響。當(dāng)然,中國政府通過實(shí)現(xiàn)高速增長補(bǔ)償了不斷擴(kuò)大的不均等。政策要考慮的是那些造成享受未來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長收益機(jī)會(huì)不均的不均等的具體內(nèi)涵。將來,兩國如果無法解決已經(jīng)并正在提高的不均等程度,它們將無法保持過去的減貧進(jìn)度。兩國在人力資源開發(fā)和獲得主要基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面持續(xù)的不均等,可能在印度更為嚴(yán)重,很明顯這不利于貧困人口享受改革帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)收益。我們已經(jīng)看到,兩國改革后的增長模式都不是特別有利于貧困人口。這些項(xiàng)目并不是明確針對(duì)貧困地區(qū),但由于村莊缺少這些服務(wù)和設(shè)施,所以無論在什么情況下這些項(xiàng)目都會(huì)惠及貧困人口。印度政府20062007財(cái)年的預(yù)算也要求大力增加對(duì)農(nóng)村基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、創(chuàng)造就業(yè)、衛(wèi)生和教育方面的投入。根據(jù)2005年出臺(tái)的《農(nóng)村就業(yè)保障法案》,每個(gè)家庭中至少有一個(gè)成員每年工作時(shí)間中有100天的工資必須滿足最低農(nóng)業(yè)工資標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。如果這些工作能夠有效落實(shí),并著眼于中國農(nóng)村的貧困地區(qū)和貧困家庭,減貧前景在“十一五”期間會(huì)是非常光明的。由于低保制度主要通過地方政府實(shí)施,其區(qū)域差異很大,這可能削弱了該