【正文】 成果 是歷史數(shù)據(jù) 預(yù)期值常根據(jù)前期財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)作出 財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)通過影響預(yù)期值來影響對企業(yè)價值的估值,4,Jan 06, 2005 preliminary financial results——UT,UTStarcom, Inc. (Nasdaq: UTSI), a global leader in IPbased endtoend networking solutions and services, today announced preliminary financial results for the fourth quarter 2004. The Company expects to report fourth quarter revenues in the range of $740 million to $745 million, versus initial guidance of $875 million to $885 million. Under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), the Company expects to report a Net Loss Per Share of ($0.40) to ($0.45).,5,Jan 06, 2005 preliminary financial results——UT,First Quarter 2005 Guidance Total Revenues: $770$780 million Gross Margins: 2325% GAAP EPS: $0.20$0.22,6,UT毛利率迅速下滑,7,UT的盈利水平迅速下滑,8,UT對PHS的依賴程度,9,UT在PHS的市場份額,10,電信和網(wǎng)通PHS的投資趨勢,11,UT市場估值變化,12,中興通訊同期估值變化,13,中興同期估值變化,14,中興對PHS的依賴,15,中興的產(chǎn)品和市場份額,16,分析師修正盈利預(yù)期的根據(jù),經(jīng)濟環(huán)境變化影響產(chǎn)品需求和行業(yè)投資 由于INTEL發(fā)布的季度財務(wù)報告顯示企業(yè)庫存增加，分析師調(diào)降整個行業(yè)的需求從而調(diào)降行業(yè)景氣程度 由于TFT面板價格下跌，全行業(yè)調(diào)減未來 建設(shè)規(guī)模和資本支出，分析師全面調(diào)整全行業(yè)的景氣周期,17,經(jīng)典的估值方法,或稱DDM法，股利貼現(xiàn)模型 需預(yù)測未來各期的現(xiàn)金股利 貼現(xiàn)因子為風(fēng)險收益 企業(yè)的生命期是無限的 在實際運用中的困難：終值估計 舉例：格力電器（估值報告）,18,風(fēng)險和收益的關(guān)系,Market Equilibrium,19,DDM運用