【正文】 tAksFnkkdtdKLnLKdtdKLdtdLLKdtdKLdtLKdk)())(,())(,(111)/(2????????????????? 穩(wěn)態(tài)人均收入取決于技術(shù)進步率 (TFP) 集約型與粗放式增長模式的區(qū)別 A few clarifications on the concept of TFP(G) TFP growth occurs when technology progresses and efficiency improves. The former is usually a longrun concept in the context of growth theory, and the latter can be a shortrun phenomenon. A high TFP growth is not necessarily profitable. TFP growth should not be used as a target in economic planning, but might be estimated for forecasting purpose. A high TFP growth may not be always desirable, but one should be definately worried with a sustained period of low or negative growth in TFP. 五、中國省際全要素生產(chǎn)率的實證分析 改革時期的省際數(shù)據(jù)（ 19792023） Malmquist指數(shù)法 1978－ 95年間為省際 TFP高增長期（ %） ? 技術(shù)進步為主 1996－ 01年期出現(xiàn)省際 TFP低增長期（ %） ? 技術(shù)進步速度減慢、技術(shù)效率有所下降 總體經(jīng)濟效率：工業(yè)中存在的問題 Policy burdens Suboptimal scale in production Limited capacity to innovate Weak financial discipline Sheltered firms vs. Less favored firms 總體經(jīng)濟效率：金融系統(tǒng)存在的問題 Credit is insufficiently allocated Lack of external discipline It is still mostly state owned Large proportion of Nonperforming loans A vicious circle: SOE?financial sector?SOE?financial sector 總體經(jīng)濟效率：省際生產(chǎn)的政治經(jīng)濟因素 Twenty years of economic reform in the PRC have resulted in a fragmented internal market with fiefdoms controlled by local officials whose economic and political ties to protected industry resemble those of the Latin American economies of past decades. (Young, 2023) The “Discovery” of Recent Productivity Slow Down (Source： Hu Zheng， State of the Nation Reprot, 2023) Unit： % 195278 197895 19952023 2023 Population GDP GDP per capita Employment Labor Productivity Capital Stock Human Capital Capital Productivity Capital per capita TFPa () () () TFPb () () () TFPc () () TFP Growth and its Components during Different Periods Periods TFP Growth Technical Efficiency Change Technical Progress Mean Std Mean Std Mean Std 19791990 19912023 19791995 19962023 19791984 19851990 19911995 1996*2023 Best Practice Provinces over Time (19792023) Year Best Practice Provinces Year Best Practice Provinces 1979 SH 1991 SH, ZJ, GD 1980 SH, ZJ 1992 SH, ZJ, GD 1981 SH, ZJ 1993 SH, ZJ, GD 1982 SH, ZJ 1994 SH, ZJ, FJ, GD 1983 SH, ZJ 1995 SH, ZJ, FJ, GD 1984 SH, ZJ 1996 SH, JS, FJ 1985 SH, ZJ 1997 SH, JS, FJ 1986 SH, ZJ 1998 SH, JS, FJ 1987 SH, ZJ 1999 SH, JS, AH, FJ 1988 SH, ZJ 2023 SH, JS, AH, FJ 1989 SH, GD 2023 SH, JS, AH, FJ 1990 SH, ZJ, GD Shifts of frontiers and changes in the distribution of capitallabor ratios Regional Efficiency distribution in China (1979) Re