【正文】 Where Did They Go? And When Will They Come Back? An Analysis of Recruitment Advertising Trends 1 The objective of this presentation is threefold: ? To present a macro view of the recruitment market ? To share an analytical approach to identifying local recruitment opportunities ? To discuss actions local newspapers should take to capitalize on opportunities mid and longerterm Note that these findings integrate work done for the NAA Horizon Watching Initiative plus Kannon’s own client work. 2 Looking forward, total . employment is expected to grow to about 168 million by 2023, up 15%. . Employment, 1989, 1999, 2023 and 2023e 1 0 7 , 8 8 41 2 8 , 7 8 61 4 5 , 5 9 41 6 7 , 7 5 408 5 , 0 0 01 7 0 , 0 0 01989 1999 2023 2023e+15% Thousands 3 The shift from Goods Producing to Service Producing employment is expected to continue. Distribution of Change by Industry Group, 2023 2023e Expected Change in Employment, 2023 to 2023e: Million Jobs Goods Producing 1% Service Producing 99% 4 Professional and Service occupations are expected to represent 39% of employment in 2023. Distribution of . Employment, 2023e Blue Collar 24% Service 19% Office Administrative Support 24% Professional 20% Management 11% Sales 10% Total Employment, 2023e: Million Jobs 5 0714Total job openings will be highest in Service and Professional occupations. Total Job Openings Due to Growth And Replacements, 2023 to 2023e Millions Professional Related Occupations Office Admin. Support Sales Related Occupations Mgt, Business Financial Trans. Material Moving Service Production Replacement Job Growth 6 Replacement needs will account for 62% of all expected available positions. Distribution of Job Openings by Occupational Group, 2023 to 2023e Organic Job Growth 38% Replacement Requirements 62% Total Openings: Million Jobs Occupations With Above Average Replacement Requirements Production 81% Office Admin. Support 72% Sales 72% Installation 66% 7 Twelve occupations two of which are fast growing will account for almost 60% of openings. ? Food Preparation/Services ? Education, Training, Library ? Management ? Financial, Information Clerks ? Health Care Practitioners/Technical ? Office Support ? Computer/Mathematical ? Material Moving ? Construction Trades ? Retail Sales ? Personal Care ? Cashiers Largest Number of New/Replacement Jobs ( Million+) 59% of Job Openings 8 The jobs with the highest anic growth rates are Professional in nature. ? Computer/Mathematical ? Health Care Support ? Community/Social Services ? Advertising Sales ? Protective ? Health Care Practitioners/Technical ? Models, Demonstrators ? Financial Service Sales ? Telemarketing ? Personal Care ? Arts, Design, Entertainment Highest Growth Rate: New Jobs (+20% Expected Growth) 22% of Job Openings 9 Largest Number of New Jobs (2,600+) 34% of New Jobs ? Retail Salespersons ? General Managers (Top Execs) ? General Office Clerks ? Cashiers ? Janitors and Cleaners (not Maids) ? Computer Support Specialists ? Landscaping Laborers ? Light Truck Drivers ? Guards ? Systems Analysts (EDP) ? Waiters and Waitresses ? Receptionists and Information Clerks Of course, this varies by market. Highest Growth Rate: New Jobs (+37% Expected Growth) 12% of New Jobs ? Computer Support Specialists ? Computer Engineers ? Systems Analysts (EDP) ? Amusement Attendants ? Medical Scientists ? Biological Scientists ? Paralegal Personnel ? Religious Activities Directors ? Parking Lot Attendants ? Engineering, Math, and Natural Science Managers ? Business Service Sales Agents ? Database Administrators Local Market Data 10 The majority of all expected job openings are for occupations that require less than a . … Job Openings by Educational or Training, 2023 – 2023e . or Higher 21% Less than a . 79% Total Job Openings = Associate’s Degree 6% Vocational Award 6% Related Work Experience 7% Moderate/ LongTerm OJT 27% ShortTerm OJT 54% Total Job Openings = 11 … and typicall