【正文】 an increase in energy consumption) cannot be rejected for Tanzania in view of the estimated standard errors. This means that the inclusion of past values of Yand E in the regressions provided a better explanation of current values of E and Y than when excluded. Indeed, by this method, a simultaneous causal relationship can be seen to exist between energy consumption and economic activities, proxied by GDP and GNP. Given the predominance of cash crops and agricultural exports in total economic activities, this es as no surprise. However, a priori observation may suggest low energy use。, and technology that is intermediate and rudimentary. On a critical note, these characteristics are likely to intensify energy consumption in the event of these countries experiencing growth in economic activities. First, the perfect substitution assumed between labour and energy is doubtful. Even if we were to make an extreme assumption that the opposite is the case, in the absence of any defined optimum limit to profit, the demand for higher wages and better working conditions will hinder any substitution possibilities. Second, the rarity of skilled labour in underdeveloped economies cast serious doubts on any substitution possibilities. Given such supply constraints, capitallabour substitution bees inevitable. Furthermore, if the nature of technologies employed are considered, the fact that these are largely intermediate technologies that are energy intensive highlights the energy intensity of their use in production activities. Thus, it is not just the doubtful substitution possibility between labour and capital that is the 7 problem here, but rather that the energy implication of the absence of such a possibility demands some attention. It is this fact that underlines the plementarity between energy and capital and the attendant implications for energy consumption intensity in developing countries. Also critical to the debate is the cost associated with substituting capital for energy which has not received adequate consideration in the debate. In order to enhance capitalenergy substitution possibilities, massive investment in plants and equipment is necessary to replace the energy intensive intermediate technology widely in use. There is also an additional cost associated with developing the human re source base that is necessary to maximize the envisaged energy savings that would accrue from the introduction of efficient technologies (Cecelski et al, 1979). If such transition costs were to prove prohibitive, developing countries economies would be exposed to serious energy constraints. Equally important are the zero substitution possibilities that exist between mercial and traditional energy with respect to certain industrial and household activities, partly because of supply constraints, but mainly due to cooking habits and traditions. In other areas where these possibilities exist, the environmental costs in terms of desertification and drought tend to cast serious doubts on its sustainability as a longterm energy strategy. Evidently, it is obvious from the latter point that the issue of plementarity and substitutability between energy and capital in developing countries is largely irrelevant. Instead, we would argue that for the developing countries, energy plements capital. Given the desire of developing countries to increase valueadded contributions to primary modity exports on the one hand, and on the other, the small substitution possibilities between capital and labour, capital and foreign exchange scarcities will bine to plicate energy scenarios in these countries (Dunkerley et al, 1981). Several studies undertaken for the developing countries have indicated strong relationships between energy and economic growth (Leach et al, 1986。s influ ence on the economy has been hotly debated by macro economists. Consequently, efforts have been made to discover the exact relationship between energy and other factors of production as to whether energy plements or substitutes other factors of production. Such knowledge will have significant bearing on energy policy formulation. Unless this is resolved, the role and significance of energy in economic growth remains clouded. First there is consensus amongst macroeconomists on the interpretation of the 197374 and the 197879 oil price increases as 39。鑒于這一事實，需要龐大的投資，以擴大非洲的能源約能力。 結(jié)果分析 由此可見，上述實證分析強烈堅持我們的理論，能源消費在國民收入的增長是相輔相成的。奧肯（ 1974年， 1975年），另一方面，駁斥了這種說法，理由是能源構(gòu)成，與其他生產(chǎn)投入相比，只是一個相對“較小 的成本份額”總產(chǎn)出。需要確定，在發(fā)展的能源消費和收入增長之間的 因果方向發(fā)展中國家是壓倒性的。由于相似的經(jīng)濟特征和相同的能量為其他發(fā)展中國家提供見解，我們的研究結(jié)果支持認(rèn)為，能源在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中起著關(guān)鍵的作用。因此，能源價格的上漲將導(dǎo)致資本替代勞動。由于作用城鎮(zhèn)人口在的經(jīng)濟增長 Kah（ 1986），在保持這一增長勢頭，滿足城市的能源需求是必不可少的。目前，這種巨大的差距征收卷上的世界貿(mào)易和全球經(jīng)濟衰退的影響已成為一個主要的主要制約因素。it is hard to believe that high energy prices can affect productivity and output growth39。 Arima, 1994). Common to these studies is the finding that ine elasticity of energy demand generally tends to be 8 highly elastic and greater than unity, whereas estimated price elasticities have been insignificantly different from zero and very inelastic. The implication being that it takes more than a 1% increase in energy consumption to produce an increase of 1% national ine. Analogously, price elasticity of energy demand is very inelastic since the quantity of energy demanded is far less responsive to price changes. These findings contrast with those found for the industrialized countries where ine elasticities of energy demand generally tend to be less than one (Nordhaus, 1977。contemporaneous innovation39。s (1969) causality test regresses a variable y on a lagged value of itself and another variable x. lfx is significant, it means that it explains some of the variance ofy that is not explained by lagged values ofy itself. This indicates that x is causally prior toy a