【正文】 al output a figment which, unlike the price level, would not as such exist at all, were there no statisticians to create it. We seem indeed to be faced by a meaningless heap for most purposes, a highly inconvenient posite” (Schumpeter, 1939, pp. 484, 561). The operational significance of national accounts became obvious in OEEC, when Milton Gilbert became responsible for economic policy analysis from 1955 to 1961, and greatly improved its quality. His earlier work on national accounts was the bedrock on which analysis of parative growth performance was based. It provided a yardstick for assessing the success of policy which had never existed before. We served as the secretariat for a new Group of Economic Experts which included Otmar Emminger from the Bundesbank, Etienne Hirsch, head of the French Plan, Jan Tinbergen from the Netherlands, Arthur Burns, chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisors, and Robert Hall, chief advisor to the UK Treasury. In 1955, Hall described the significance of their work as follows: “These meetings are really something quite exceptional for economists and I should think are quite new in the history of the world, in the sense that economic experts, if they existed at all as Government advisers, were not generally very important people until Keynes39。無疑，歐洲的這些發(fā)展是19和20世紀(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)更快發(fā)展的前奏，歐洲的現(xiàn)代化不是一蹴而就的。非洲和亞洲國家也引入了美洲農(nóng)作物。關(guān)于1500－1820不同國家和地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)，Kuznets在1965年提出了關(guān)于西歐人口率和人均GDP增長的一個非常有影響的假說，認(rèn)為西歐發(fā)達(dá)國家1500－1750年可能的（并且或許是最大的）%。對外貿(mào)易占GDP的比重在英國由3％增至25％，％至13％，美國2％至10％。其中1950－1973年是一個無可比擬的繁榮的黃金時代，這個時期世界GDP年均增長5％，世界貿(mào)易年均增長8％，人均收入有明顯趨同趨勢，大部分地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長都快于美國。以購買力平價計(jì)算的發(fā)展中國家的GDP要大大高于以匯率轉(zhuǎn)換的GDP，差距可能達(dá)到35倍。使用蘇聯(lián)MPS體系（material production system）的國家增長被高估，需要做大量調(diào)整。下面是他報告的主要內(nèi)容。雖然仍有一些領(lǐng)域需要改進(jìn)，但對這個時期經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展大致輪廓沒有實(shí)質(zhì)爭議。政府統(tǒng)計(jì)官員會提供真實(shí)價格計(jì)算的總產(chǎn)出和總支出數(shù)據(jù)，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、新聞記者和官員們都將其作為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和波動的主要指標(biāo)。1820－1950年的Kuznetsian時代Simon Kuznets教授對現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的研究成果，使可以數(shù)量化研究的時間界限從20世紀(jì)50年代推進(jìn)到19世紀(jì)20年代。Denison擴(kuò)展增長分析方法指出1820年以來英國、美國和日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長表現(xiàn)出以下一些顯著特點(diǎn)：物質(zhì)資本大量增長，非居住建筑和機(jī)器設(shè)備增加非常明顯，伴隨在機(jī)器設(shè)備中加速的技術(shù)進(jìn)步。馬爾薩斯則悲觀論則認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)取決于人口增長和固定的土地供給間的平衡，技術(shù)進(jìn)步、資本形成和國際貿(mào)易專業(yè)化的因素被忽略，因此只有通過災(zāi)難（戰(zhàn)爭、饑荒、疾病）才能實(shí)現(xiàn)平衡。歐洲國家還從殖民地，非洲奴隸貿(mào)易中獲取了很多利益。事實(shí)上向現(xiàn)代資本主義過渡經(jīng)歷了長時間的準(zhǔn)備。 iii) a Fisher geometric average of the two measures. Binary parisons, . Germany/USA and UK/USA, could then be linked with the USA as the star country. Such star parisons could provide a proxy Germany/UK parison, but it was not “transitive” (. the result would not be identical to that derived from a direct Germany/UK parison). This was not a great drawback for OEEC countries where the intercountry deviation in performance levels was not too wide. But Kravis, Heston and Summers were engaged in parisons over a much wider range of per capita ine. They therefore adopted the GearyKhamis method, invented by Roy Geary (18961983) and Salem Khamis, which multilateralised the results, provided transitivity and other desirable properties. They used it in conjunction with the modity product dummy method (CPD), invented by Robert Summers, for filling holes in the basic dataset. Their masterpiece was their third study, the 1982 volume World Product and Ine, which contained estimates for 34 countries (in Africa, the Americas, Asia and Europe) in 1975 prices and international GearyKhamis dollars. These countries accounted for 64 per cent of world GDP in 2001.Table 1 Nature of PPP Converters to Estimate GDP Levels in the Benchmark Year 1990(billion 1990 GearyKhamis dollars and number of countries)Europe amp。 f. USSR 695 2,064 2,072Africa 203 550 1 222Rest 1 2 137 6 626 17 862World 1 2 5 330 16 024 37 194% West/World Source for tables 4 and 5: Maddison (2003), pp. 259 amp。 Hjerppe and Associates (1987) for Finland。 “follower” countries have a lower level of labour productivity (or GDP per capita). Since 1500 there have been four lead countries, Northern Italy in the sixteenth century, the Netherlands from the sixteenth century until the Napoleonic wars, when the UK took over. The British lead lasted until around 1890, and the USA has been the lead country since then.(ii) Quantifying the Causes of GrowthAs quantitative evidence on parative GDP growth has a。 LevyLeboyer amp。 f. USSR 498 686 941 1 558 2 602 5 731 5 038Africa 414 420 500 637 894 1 410 1 489Rest 538 578 606 860 1 091 2 072 3 377World 566 667 875 1 525 2 111 4 091 6 049Interregional Spread :1 :1 :1 :1 :1 :1 :1West/Rest Spread :1 :1 :1 :1 :1 :1 :1Average per capita ine of the West rose 20fold between 1820 and 2001, and less than ninefold in the Rest. The spread between the two groups rose from 2:1 to nearly 7:1and the interregional gap increased much more from 3:1 to 18:1. Nevertheless, it is clear from Table 5 that the Western share of world GDP has peaked and will in all probability fall considerably more if the two Asian tigers, India and China maintain a high growth momentum。 iii) a promise geometric (Fisher) average of the first two measures. The corresponding measures of real expenditure were: i) Laspeyres parisons of GDP levels based on the prices (unit values) of the numeraire country。有一個學(xué)派認(rèn)為現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長源于工業(yè)革命，而之前則是幾個世紀(jì)的馬爾薩斯停滯。研究表明，人均勞動投入、資本和人力資本、知識在這個時期都有增加，但是非常明顯的是全球化在這個時期起到了比以往更加重要的作用，相對來說全球化在這段時期的作用比在20世紀(jì)還要重要。1500－1820年的商人資本主義年代關(guān)于商人資本主義年代（1500－1820）經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)，在18世紀(jì)末就已經(jīng)存在兩種不同的解釋。1500年以來共有4個領(lǐng)導(dǎo)國家，16世紀(jì)的意大利，16世紀(jì)至拿破侖戰(zhàn)爭時期的荷蘭，此后的英國和1890年后的美國。那么為何匯率轉(zhuǎn)換還如此經(jīng)常的被使用呢？一方面出于無知和支持自己觀點(diǎn)的需要，另一方面許多發(fā)展國家不愿意接受購買力平價方法，因?yàn)閾?dān)心這會不利于他們申請世行的優(yōu)惠貸款和資助。最后關(guān)于教育和知識的計(jì)量也還沒有成熟理論。我們現(xiàn)在有50年代以來世界大部分國家的增長和收入的官方估計(jì)。50年代以來，宏觀計(jì)量的主要目的是提供可能的政策選擇以改善國家的增長表現(xiàn)以及進(jìn)行國家間差異分析。還有1995年以來一些高收入國家開始引入享樂指數(shù)（hedonic index）來反映產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量的改善，但是這么做并沒有充分的根據(jù)并且會高估經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，比如美國用新的計(jì)量技術(shù)重新進(jìn)行1929－1950年國民經(jīng)濟(jì)核算，結(jié)果使國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)%%。更為明顯的一個例子是1950年中國和印度以匯率計(jì)算人均GDP分別是$85和$175（1990年價格），這兩個數(shù)據(jù)低得讓人難以置信。區(qū)分領(lǐng)導(dǎo)國家和跟隨國家對于研究技術(shù)的動態(tài)傳播和趕超過程是非常重要的，“領(lǐng)導(dǎo)”國家指那些處于技術(shù)前沿的國家，而“跟隨”國家指勞動生產(chǎn)率較低的國家。能源的投入增長比較溫和，美國人均增長了3倍，英國6倍，日本8倍。在分析商人資本主義時代的增長時，增長分析的方法就不再適用了。與亞當(dāng)斯密和馬爾薩斯關(guān)于商人資本主義的對立解釋相對應(yīng)，關(guān)于現(xiàn)代化的根源有非常不同的看法。 ii) a Laspeyres PPP with the quantity weights of the numeraire countrythe United States。 f. USSR 0 0 Latin America 85