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???6 FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND ECONOMIC EXPOSURE B. Real Exchange Rates and Risk 1. Nominal v. real exchange rates: the real rate has been adjusted for price changes. 7 FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND ECONOMIC EXPOSURE 3. SUMMARY a. the economic impact of a currency change depends on the offset by the difference in inflation rates or the real exchange rate. b. It is the relative price changes that ultimately determine a firm’s longrun exposure. 8 PART II. THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES II. ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES A. Transaction exposure 1. Onbalance sheet 2. Offbalance sheet 9 THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES II. ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES (con’t) B. Operating Exposure : real rate change 1. Pricing flexibility is key 2. Product differentiation 3. Substitution of inputs 10 THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES II. SUMMARY The sector of the economy in which the firm operates。 B. sensitivity to exchange rate changes. 16 PART V. AN OPERATIONAL MEASURE OF EXCHANGE RISK V. NEED FOR A WORKABLE APPROACH A. Regression Analysis 1. Variables a. Independent: changes in parent’s cash flows b. Dependent: Average nominal exchange rate change. 17 AN OPERATIONAL MEASURE OF EXCHANGE RISK B. REGRESSION EQUATION approach based on the operational definition of the exchange risk faced by a parent or one of its affiliates: a pany faces exchange risk to the extent that variations in the dollar value of the u