供應(yīng)鏈不匹配成本ppt課件-免費(fèi)閱讀
【正文】 ? 剩余成本可能是積壓的庫(kù)存，如未及時(shí)清理，造成虛假利潤(rùn) ? 除了利潤(rùn)最大化目標(biāo)外，很多情況下會(huì)選服務(wù)水平目標(biāo)，因?yàn)橐紤]長(zhǎng)期效應(yīng)。 Slide ??， Assembletoorder, maketoorder and Quick Response with reactive capacity 按訂單裝配、按訂單生產(chǎn)和以反應(yīng)性能力快速響應(yīng) Slide ??， The demandsupply mismatch cost ? Definition – the demand supply mismatch cost includes the cost of left over inventory (the ―too much‖ cost) plus the opportunity cost of lost sales (the ―too little‖ cost): ? The maximum profit is the profit without any mismatch costs, ., every unit is sold and there are no lost sales: ? The mismatch cost can also be evaluated with ? ?? ? s al e sl os t E x pe c t e dCi nv e nt or y ov e r l e f t E x pe c t e dC c os t M i s m at c huo????? ? m??? cpp r o f i t M a x i m u mMismatch cost = Maximum profit – Expected profit Slide ??， When is the mismatch cost high? ? Mismatch cost as a percent of the maximum profit where f(z) = density function of the Normal distribution (In Excel f(z)=normdist(z,0,1,0)) ? ? The mismatch cost is high when (f(z) / F(z)) and (? / m? are high. ( z )( z )f?m????? ????F ????Slide ??， Low critical ratios ? high mismatch costs ? The mismatch cost is high when (f(z) / F(z)) is high … ? … ( f(z) / F(z)) is high when the critical ratio is low: Slide ??， ? 變差系數(shù)反映預(yù)測(cè)質(zhì)量，提高預(yù)測(cè)精確性，可有更高利潤(rùn)。 ? 剩余成本可能是可見(jiàn)成本，而銷售損失是機(jī)會(huì)成本，在報(bào)表中看不到。 ? 關(guān)鍵比例小的產(chǎn)品，剩余成本高，容易過(guò)時(shí)的和容易腐敗的產(chǎn)品采購(gòu)少。 ? Expected Left Over Inventory = Q Expected Sales ( )E x p e c t e d l o s t s a l e s L z???? ?? ?zN o r m s d i s tzzN o r m di s tzL ??? 1*)0,1,0,()(Slide ??， formula ? ?? ?E x p e c t e d p r o f i t P r i c e C o s t E x p e c t e d s a l e sC o s t S a l v a g e v a l u e E x p e c t e d l e f t o v e r i n v e n t o r y????????1mm????Ex pe c ted s al es Ex pe c ted s al esEx pe c ted fi l l r ate Ex pe c ted de m an dEx pe c ted l os t s al esInstock probability = F(Q) = Φ(z) Stockout probability = 1 – F(Q) =1 – Instock probability Slide ??， The Newsvendor Model: The target instock probability and the target fillrate objectives for choosing Q instock probability：缺貨情況，對(duì)雜貨店較重要 fillrate：多少顧客滿足的情況，對(duì)目錄零售商較重要 Slide ??， Choose Q subject to a minimum instock probability ? Suppose we wish to find the order quantity for the Hammer 3/2 that minimizes left over inventory while generating at least a 99% instock probability. ? Step 1: ? Find the zstatistic that yields the target instock probability. ? In the Standard Normal Distribution Function Table we find F() = and F() = . ? Choose z = to satisfy our instock probability constraint. ? Step 2: ? Convert the zstatistic into an order quantity for the actual demand distribution. ? Q = m + z x ? = 3192 + x 1181 = 5944 Slide ??， Choose Q subject to a minimum fill rate constraint ? Suppose we wish to find the order quantity for the Hammer 3/2 that mi
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