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【正文】 ? The two “jobless” recoveries from the 1991 recession and the 2020 recession. 34 CHAPTER 28 UNEMPLOYMENT The 19922020 expansion Growth, Unemployment, and Inflation in the United States, 19602020 (in percent) 19602020 (average) 19922020 (average) 2020 2020 Output growth Unemployment rate Inflation rate 35 CHAPTER 28 UNEMPLOYMENT The long expansion of 19922020 ? Output growth was positive for nine years in a row, making the period the longest . economic expansion since the WWII. ? Sustained growth in output was associated with a steady increase in employment, and a steady decrease in unemployment. ? Although low unemployment is typically associated with increasing inflation, the inflation rate remained low. In short, the economic performance of . from 1992 to 2020 was impressive: high output growth, low unemployment, and low inflation. 36 CHAPTER 28 UNEMPLOYMENT Explaining the high output growth: the “new economy” hypothesis ? Many argue that, since the long expansion during 1990s was associated with the rapid development of the hightech sector, the . had entered a New Economy. ? The rise of dot inter panies. ? A period of faster technological progress ? Let’s take a look at the productivity growth… 37 CHAPTER 28 UNEMPLOYMENT 38 CHAPTER 28 UNEMPLOYMENT We can say the following… ? Productivity growth varies from year to year, it appears that starting at some point in the 1970s, there was a decrease in the average rate of growth of output per worker。 ? Job finding rate。 training new workers is costly. Paying high wages gives workers more incentive to stay, reduces turnover. Four reasons why firms might pay efficiency wages: 15 CHAPTER 28 UNEMPLOYMENT 3. Efficiency Wages 3. Worker quality Offering higher wages attracts better job applicants, increases quality of the firm’s workforce. 4. Worker effort Workers can work hard or shirk. Shirkers are fired if caught. Is being fired a good deterrent? Depends on how hard it is to find another job. If market wage is above eq’m wage, there aren’t enough jobs to go around, so workers have more incentive to work not shirk. Four reasons why firms might pay efficiency wages: 16 CHAPTER 28 UNEMPLOYMENT Observed Unemployment= natural rate of unemployment + cyclical unemployment ? What determines cyclical unemployment? ? Business cycles. ? What determines the natural rate of unemployment? The natural rate of unemployment es from either frictional unemployment or structural unemployment. ? Structure of the economy: technological progress。 ? Regular classroom and lecture time。 ? Labor market institutions. 3 CHAPTER 28 UNEMPLOYMENT Explaining the Natural Rate: An Overview Even when the economy is doing well, there is always some unemployment, including: frictional unemployment ? It takes time to find a job that suits you. ? shortterm for
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