【正文】 實際上，我們現(xiàn)在需要 認識到的是，要將決策過程整合到風險評估過程中去。 “ 戰(zhàn)略就是在條件尚不明確的情況下做出選擇。 ” 瑞士國際管理發(fā)展學院的羅森茲維格補充說，要想在自己特定的行業(yè)內(nèi)勝出，公司還應該考慮自己需要承擔什么水平的風險。澳大利亞最大的能源公司伍德塞德能源公司的高級副總裁邁克爾 它們會盅惑我們，讓我們自以為弄清了風險的潛在因素所在，可實際上，我們根本沒有做過探究工作。 做出更出色的決策 在其 1996 年有關風險管理的暢銷書《與天為敵：風險探索傳奇》的最后幾頁，彼得 ” 降低內(nèi)部審計風險的途徑 加強內(nèi)部審計的法制建設 完善和健全審計法規(guī)體系是內(nèi)部審計風險控制的基礎措施。 海利奇已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)向了全新的模式。之后 ，提供有關那些環(huán)節(jié)的數(shù)據(jù)向你證明，公司必須要認真思考這些問題。但是，考慮到這個世界變化得如此之快，歷史數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)不能對未來產(chǎn)生決定性作用了。我們當然希望擁有獲取所有信息的從容時間，不過，現(xiàn)實情況則是，經(jīng)理人必須在沒有 把握的情況下，甚至在對情況一無所知的情況下做出決策。 ” 盡管如此，承擔風險卻一直都是管理的目標，而且不僅限于金融服務領域，所有行業(yè)都是如此。因此，他們會問： “ 不好的那一面會如何？ ” 如果風險過高，或者根本不知道風險狀況如何，那么，公司通常都會撤退。 —— 譯者注），也因為運營風險而經(jīng)歷了聲名狼藉的失敗。 但是，風險并不僅限于一種。 內(nèi)部審計風險包括固有風險和控制風險。 與此同時，沃頓商學院和其他地方的專家們認為，人們對風險管理模型以及其他交易工具的指責過多了，他們認為，實際上，那些模型并不一定那么蹩腳，只不過和基于它們的決策彼此相當而已。 根據(jù)公司的報告來看，問題并不在 于這些企業(yè)不愿意推出一個令人沮喪的展望，相反，這些公司聲稱，它們確實不知道市場將會走向何方，全球經(jīng)濟看起來如此之不穩(wěn)定，以至于高管們對自己的預測毫無信心可言。 they are central. You can assess the risks very carefully with the best experts, but if you don39。ve done nothing of the kind. It39。 exposure to risks in many cases, risks that they don39。s the downside? If the risk is too high or even unknown panies typically pull back. The second point is that risk management has no silver bullet. As a result, many panies need to develop a more integrated view of risk. We have seen a tendency to separate risks into rigid silos operational risk, market risk, credit risk and so on, says Wharton39。t know which way the markets will go。 they could not assess with any confidence the value of their own or others39。s Risk Management and Decision Processes Center. Whatever industry you consider, it is always the same pattern. Things are getting faster, and therefore we need to make decisions faster, but based on information that we often don39。s internal audit late start pared with Western countries in the relevant systembuilding there are many imperfections. In order to adapt to the continuous development of modern internal audit requirements, it is necessary to strengthen the audit work of legalization and standardization construction to minimize the audit work of blindness and randomness. To ensure the independence of internal audit The independence of the internal auditor can make a fair and impartial professional judgment, which is appropriate to carry out the audit work is essential. The independence of internal audit bodies connotation should be reflected mainly in the form of independence and de facto independence in two ways. Formal independence requirements of internal audit in the organization of organizations with high status, the internal auditor should have access to senior management and board of directors support. Essentially refers to an independent internal audit staff in the spirit of the need to maintain the necessary independence, should be a fair and just manner and avoid conflicts of interest, in carrying out internal audit work, to maintain an honest belief in pliance with the Code of Ethics for the entire audit process does not make a significant promise. Making Better Decisions In the last pages of the 1996 bestseller on risk, Against the Gods, Peter Bernstein anticipated the challenge many panies are facing today. Nothing is more soothing or more persuasive than the puter screen, with its imposing arrays of numbers, glowing colors and elegantly structured graphs, he wrote. As we stare at the passing show, we bee so absorbed we tend to forget that the puter only answers questions。s Rosenzweig adds that panies also need to think about what level of risktaking is required to win in their specific industry. The great unspoken issue is about payoffs, and the degree to which payoffs are skewed in an industry, he says. In an industry with many players, low barriers to entry and where only a small number will make a lot of money, the payoffs are highly skewed. If this is the case, you cannot afford to take a conservative approach. So winning is not about limiting the downside in situations like this. Only panies that have an appetite for risk in that industry will find themselves winning. Ultimately, then, the new thinking about risk management is being much more a strategic discussion, turning risk managers into strategists and vice versa. Strategy is making choices under conditions of uncertainty, says Rosenzweig. And you cannot make the right strategic choices without understanding your industry and how much risk you need to take on. As a result, risk management promises to bee an even more central part of managing any business. In Danone39。然而，今年的情況卻發(fā)生了改變。過去數(shù)年來，企業(yè)在開發(fā)有助于自己進行這類分析 —— 尤其是進行財務分析 —— 的工具方面 ，已經(jīng)變得越來越老練了。 賀林說。 對風險的重新定 義 第一步就是獲得更完整的風險全景?？罩锌蛙嚬?在開發(fā)其 380 型巨型飛機過程中所遭遇的延誤就是個經(jīng)典例證。對前 者來說，風險管理中的關鍵問題是變化 —— 即結果可能出現(xiàn)的變化。 “ 但是，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)的實際情況是，重大的動蕩和重大的問題并不是以這種 方式出現(xiàn)的。 建立一種全新的 “ 風險管理架構 ” 風險管理與決策過程研究中心的主任艾萬 ?米歇爾 克嘉談到，考慮到最近發(fā)生的諸多事件， “ 我現(xiàn)在看到的是，一種全新的風險管理架構正在企業(yè)中顯露出來。 “ 我們受到的訓練是，面對清楚的問題，用清楚的科學知識來解決問題。 “ 組建一個團隊，并要求他們發(fā)現(xiàn) 23 個公司尚未想到的重要環(huán)節(jié)。就公司所面臨的風險問題，咨詢顧問機構也正在為它們加緊提供更全面、更多維的觀點。 “ 高管對采用企業(yè)風險管理的必要性如今篤信不疑。內(nèi)部審計機構獨立性的內(nèi)涵應主要表現(xiàn)為形式上的獨立和實質(zhì)上的獨立兩方面。 ” 瑞士國際管理發(fā)展學院（ IMD）、《光環(huán)效應以及騙過管理人員的其他八個商業(yè)幻覺》的作者費爾 2020 年 1 月，另一份報告同樣發(fā)出了這樣的警告： “ 在未來 12 個月內(nèi)，流動性危機將會引發(fā)美國的經(jīng)濟衰退 ” 是極可能發(fā)生的事件，同時，要求人們對系統(tǒng)性金融風險進行全新的思考。每一種風險都會得到分析，之后，據(jù)此制定緩解策略。所以，在這種情況下，勝出就不是限制失敗的問題了。 “ 對風險的討論會以務實的態(tài)度進行，倚重于常識和商業(yè)判斷，并會與組織中的同仁進行交流。 ” 。 ” 因此，風險管理注定會成為管理任何企業(yè)更具核心地位的部分。 “ 在一個擁有很多參與者、進入門檻很低而且只有很少一部分參與者能大發(fā)利市的行業(yè)中，收益會極度傾斜。 海遜談到，首先， “ 你必須要先發(fā)制人、未