【正文】 performance. Yet, as has been widely reported in the media, many of these same models failed spectacularly to predict or prepare panies for the current global economic crisis, and major efforts are underway on Wall Street to fix these systems. At the same time, experts at Wharton and elsewhere argue that too much blame is being placed on the risk management model and other tools of the trade, in banking and beyond. The models are not necessarily broken, but instead are only as good as the decisions that get made based on them, they say. As a result, the current crisis may represent an opportunity for panies to revisit and rethink historical approaches to risk management. When it es to planning for the future, the new thinking goes, it is not just the model that matters, it is the mindset. I think we39。t know which way the markets will go。 the problems with identifying and measuring the risk in this sector kicked off the chain of events that brought the global economy to a near standstill. Some banks were dramatically more exposed to risks than they thought they were. Most others simply did not know。s the downside? If the risk is too high or even unknown panies typically pull back. The second point is that risk management has no silver bullet. As a result, many panies need to develop a more integrated view of risk. We have seen a tendency to separate risks into rigid silos operational risk, market risk, credit risk and so on, says Wharton39。 Given recent events, What I see now is a new risk architecture emerging for organizations, says Erwann MichelKerjan, managing director of Wharton39。 exposure to risks in many cases, risks that they don39。s leadership, a consequence of the increasing volatility in markets and the potential severity of impact. Top managers are convinced of the necessity to use enterprise risk management. We now have an effective working session with part of the executive mittee twice a year. And we continue to rely on yearly updates of the risk maps of all major business units worldwide. reduce the risk of internal audit ways Strengthen the internal audit of the legal system Improve and perfect the legal system for the audit of internal audit is the basis of risk control measures. Audit norms, the audit staff code of conduct and guidelines, not only to control and reduce audit risk, but also to measure auditors liability standards. China39。ve done nothing of the kind. It39。s largest energy pany, offers an example based his experiences both at pany headquarters and in running local operations in diverse places like Algeria, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Lybia and Vietnam. In these settings, risk has a much more tangible profile, which Hession says taught him many lessons. First and foremost, Hession notes, You have to be proactive. Understand the risks as well as the environment you are operating in. In entering a new country, we would put considerable effort into understanding the full risk picture for the business. Each of the risks was analysed and then mitigation strategies were put in place. Very importantly, input to this process was not just from within the pany. We sought advice from many external sources, including the authorities and peer panies. We recognised it was not possible to capture all the risks that might happen, but we certainly hoped we had captured the major ones. IMD39。 they are central. You can assess the risks very carefully with the best experts, but if you don39。因?yàn)樗麄儗ζ髽I(yè)季度表現(xiàn)和年度表現(xiàn)的預(yù)測充滿信心，所以，即便超出或者低于預(yù)測的數(shù)量微乎其微，也會(huì)令人驚訝，從而會(huì)引發(fā)股票價(jià)格的動(dòng)蕩。 根據(jù)公司的報(bào)告來看，問題并不在 于這些企業(yè)不愿意推出一個(gè)令人沮喪的展望，相反，這些公司聲稱，它們確實(shí)不知道市場將會(huì)走向何方，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)看起來如此之不穩(wěn)定，以至于高管們對自己的預(yù)測毫無信心可言。無論何時(shí)，當(dāng)人們考慮一樁購并、為某個(gè)新產(chǎn)品概念提供資金或者進(jìn)行一項(xiàng)投資時(shí)，成功從來都不是萬無一失的。 與此同時(shí)，沃頓商學(xué)院和其他地方的專家們認(rèn)為，人們對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理模型以及其他交易工具的指責(zé)過多了，他們認(rèn)為，實(shí)際上，那些模型并不一定那么蹩腳，只不過和基于它們的決策彼此相當(dāng)而已。 ” 沃頓金融學(xué)院國際銀行學(xué)教授、沃頓金融學(xué)院研究中心聯(lián)席主任理查德 內(nèi)部審計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括固有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。有時(shí)即使審計(jì)人員確認(rèn)被審計(jì)單位的內(nèi)部控制制度不合理或在關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)上失控，其提出的修正建議能否真正適合被審計(jì)單位的經(jīng)營活動(dòng)，也會(huì)形成一種修正風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 但是，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并不僅限于一種。 公司面 臨的另一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而且也是更常見的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，就是運(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 —— 譯者注），也因?yàn)檫\(yùn)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而經(jīng)歷了聲名狼藉的失敗。第一個(gè)關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)就是股票交易者、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和學(xué)者與大部分企業(yè)經(jīng)理人考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方式具有顯著的差異。因此，他們會(huì)問： “ 不好的那一面會(huì)如何？ ” 如果風(fēng)險(xiǎn)過高，或者根本不知道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況如何，那么，公司通常都會(huì)撤退。 ” 沃頓商學(xué)院的賀林談到。 ” 盡管如此，承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)卻一直都是管理的目標(biāo)，而且不僅限于金融服務(wù)領(lǐng)域，所有行業(yè)都是如此。 ” 可問題在于，經(jīng)理人總是在還沒有確定哪些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是 “ 好風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ” ，哪些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是 “ 壞風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ” 的情況下，就試圖勝多負(fù)少。我們當(dāng)然希望擁有獲取所有信息的從容時(shí)間，不過，現(xiàn)實(shí)情況則是，經(jīng)理人必須在沒有 把握的情況下，甚至在對情況一無所知的情況下做出決策。的確，正是目前這場危機(jī)的系統(tǒng)性特點(diǎn)，以及影響的廣泛性，讓人深感震驚。但是，考慮到這個(gè)世界變化得如此之快，歷史數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)不能對未來產(chǎn)生決定性作用了。 ” 米歇爾 克嘉補(bǔ)充說，關(guān)鍵在于要將見多識(shí)廣的人員安排在企業(yè)中，讓他們負(fù)責(zé)眼觀六路、耳聽八方，并對有關(guān)未來的假設(shè)提出質(zhì)疑。之后 ，提供有關(guān)那些環(huán)節(jié)的數(shù)據(jù)向你證明，公司必須要認(rèn)真思考這些問題。同樣地，米歇爾 克嘉現(xiàn)在正在從事一個(gè)識(shí)別金融產(chǎn)品 “DNA” 的項(xiàng)目，該項(xiàng)目旨在使金融產(chǎn)品中各個(gè)組件的 “ 可見度 ” 更高，并為金融產(chǎn)品的審計(jì)提供更有效的工具。 海利奇已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)向了全新的模式。 ” 瞻望未來，海利奇認(rèn)為，達(dá)能公司的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層會(huì)更加專注于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，這是市場變化日益無常以及由此產(chǎn)生的潛在影響日益增加的結(jié)果。 ” 降低內(nèi)部審計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的途徑 加強(qiáng)內(nèi)部審計(jì)的法制建設(shè) 完善和健全審計(jì)法規(guī)體系是內(nèi)部審計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制的基礎(chǔ)措施。 保證內(nèi)部審計(jì)的獨(dú)立性 獨(dú)立性可以使內(nèi)部審計(jì)師提出公正的和不偏不倚的專業(yè)判斷，這對審計(jì)工作的恰當(dāng)開展是必不可少的。 做出更出色的決策 在其 1996 年有關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的暢銷書《與天為敵：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)探索傳奇》的最后幾頁，彼得 “ 當(dāng)我們盯著不斷閃現(xiàn)著數(shù)據(jù)的屏幕時(shí)，我們會(huì)全神貫注，而忘了計(jì)算機(jī)只能回答問題，它并不能提出問題 ?? 那些 以數(shù)字為生的人可能會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，計(jì)算機(jī)完全取代了 ‘ 神諭 ’ ，在古代，人們常?？可裰I為自己的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和決策提供指導(dǎo)。它們會(huì)盅惑我們，讓我們自以為弄清了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的潛在因素所在，可實(shí)際上，我們根本沒有做過探究工作。在 2020 年的報(bào)告中，一場資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的全球性崩潰被確認(rèn)為主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并將其視為最可能發(fā)生而且會(huì)產(chǎn)生最大影響的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之一。澳大利亞最大的能源公司伍德塞德能源公司的高級副總裁邁克爾 在即將進(jìn)入一個(gè)陌生的國家時(shí)，我們會(huì)用相當(dāng)?shù)木槠髽I(yè)弄清全部的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所在。 ” 瑞士國際管理發(fā)展學(xué)院的羅森茲維格補(bǔ)充說，要想在自己特定的行業(yè)內(nèi)勝出，公司還應(yīng)該考慮自己需要承擔(dān)什么水平的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如果是這種情況，那么，你就承擔(dān)不起采用保守策略的后果。 “ 戰(zhàn)略就是在條件尚不明確的情況下做出選擇。海利奇談到，比如，在達(dá)能公司，現(xiàn)在在業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)作過程中，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)考量已經(jīng)被植入到了戰(zhàn)略制定、預(yù)算等多個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)，在公司對運(yùn)營進(jìn)行季度評價(jià)以及發(fā)生重大變化或者啟動(dòng)新項(xiàng)目的時(shí)候，都會(huì)對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題進(jìn)行更多的討論。實(shí)際上，我們現(xiàn)在需要 認(rèn)識(shí)到的是，要將決策過程整合到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估過