【正文】 performance. Yet, as has been widely reported in the media, many of these same models failed spectacularly to predict or prepare panies for the current global economic crisis, and major efforts are underway on Wall Street to fix these systems. At the same time, experts at Wharton and elsewhere argue that too much blame is being placed on the risk management model and other tools of the trade, in banking and beyond. The models are not necessarily broken, but instead are only as good as the decisions that get made based on them, they say. As a result, the current crisis may represent an opportunity for panies to revisit and rethink historical approaches to risk management. When it es to planning for the future, the new thinking goes, it is not just the model that matters, it is the mindset. I think we39。t know which way the markets will go。 the problems with identifying and measuring the risk in this sector kicked off the chain of events that brought the global economy to a near standstill. Some banks were dramatically more exposed to risks than they thought they were. Most others simply did not know。s the downside? If the risk is too high or even unknown panies typically pull back. The second point is that risk management has no silver bullet. As a result, many panies need to develop a more integrated view of risk. We have seen a tendency to separate risks into rigid silos operational risk, market risk, credit risk and so on, says Wharton39。 Given recent events, What I see now is a new risk architecture emerging for organizations, says Erwann MichelKerjan, managing director of Wharton39。 exposure to risks in many cases, risks that they don39。s leadership, a consequence of the increasing volatility in markets and the potential severity of impact. Top managers are convinced of the necessity to use enterprise risk management. We now have an effective working session with part of the executive mittee twice a year. And we continue to rely on yearly updates of the risk maps of all major business units worldwide. reduce the risk of internal audit ways Strengthen the internal audit of the legal system Improve and perfect the legal system for the audit of internal audit is the basis of risk control measures. Audit norms, the audit staff code of conduct and guidelines, not only to control and reduce audit risk, but also to measure auditors liability standards. China39。ve done nothing of the kind. It39。s largest energy pany, offers an example based his experiences both at pany headquarters and in running local operations in diverse places like Algeria, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Lybia and Vietnam. In these settings, risk has a much more tangible profile, which Hession says taught him many lessons. First and foremost, Hession notes, You have to be proactive. Understand the risks as well as the environment you are operating in. In entering a new country, we would put considerable effort into understanding the full risk picture for the business. Each of the risks was analysed and then mitigation strategies were put in place. Very importantly, input to this process was not just from within the pany. We sought advice from many external sources, including the authorities and peer panies. We recognised it was not possible to capture all the risks that might happen, but we certainly hoped we had captured the major ones. IMD39。 they are central. You can assess the risks very carefully with the best experts, but if you don39。因為他們對企業(yè)季度表現和年度表現的預測充滿信心，所以，即便超出或者低于預測的數量微乎其微，也會令人驚訝，從而會引發(fā)股票價格的動蕩。 根據公司的報告來看，問題并不在 于這些企業(yè)不愿意推出一個令人沮喪的展望，相反，這些公司聲稱，它們確實不知道市場將會走向何方，全球經濟看起來如此之不穩(wěn)定，以至于高管們對自己的預測毫無信心可言。無論何時，當人們考慮一樁購并、為某個新產品概念提供資金或者進行一項投資時，成功從來都不是萬無一失的。 與此同時，沃頓商學院和其他地方的專家們認為，人們對風險管理模型以及其他交易工具的指責過多了，他們認為，實際上，那些模型并不一定那么蹩腳，只不過和基于它們的決策彼此相當而已。 ” 沃頓金融學院國際銀行學教授、沃頓金融學院研究中心聯(lián)席主任理查德 內部審計風險包括固有風險和控制風險。有時即使審計人員確認被審計單位的內部控制制度不合理或在關鍵環(huán)節(jié)上失控，其提出的修正建議能否真正適合被審計單位的經營活動，也會形成一種修正風險。 但是，風險并不僅限于一種。 公司面 臨的另一種風險，而且也是更常見的風險，就是運營風險。 —— 譯者注），也因為運營風險而經歷了聲名狼藉的失敗。第一個關鍵點就是股票交易者、經濟學家和學者與大部分企業(yè)經理人考慮風險的方式具有顯著的差異。因此，他們會問： “ 不好的那一面會如何？ ” 如果風險過高，或者根本不知道風險狀況如何，那么，公司通常都會撤退。 ” 沃頓商學院的賀林談到。 ” 盡管如此，承擔風險卻一直都是管理的目標，而且不僅限于金融服務領域，所有行業(yè)都是如此。 ” 可問題在于，經理人總是在還沒有確定哪些風險是 “ 好風險 ” ，哪些風險是 “ 壞風險 ” 的情況下，就試圖勝多負少。我們當然希望擁有獲取所有信息的從容時間，不過，現實情況則是，經理人必須在沒有 把握的情況下，甚至在對情況一無所知的情況下做出決策。的確，正是目前這場危機的系統(tǒng)性特點，以及影響的廣泛性，讓人深感震驚。但是，考慮到這個世界變化得如此之快，歷史數據已經不能對未來產生決定性作用了。 ” 米歇爾 克嘉補充說，關鍵在于要將見多識廣的人員安排在企業(yè)中，讓他們負責眼觀六路、耳聽八方，并對有關未來的假設提出質疑。之后 ，提供有關那些環(huán)節(jié)的數據向你證明，公司必須要認真思考這些問題。同樣地，米歇爾 克嘉現在正在從事一個識別金融產品 “DNA” 的項目，該項目旨在使金融產品中各個組件的 “ 可見度 ” 更高，并為金融產品的審計提供更有效的工具。 海利奇已經轉向了全新的模式。 ” 瞻望未來，海利奇認為，達能公司的領導層會更加專注于風險管理，這是市場變化日益無常以及由此產生的潛在影響日益增加的結果。 ” 降低內部審計風險的途徑 加強內部審計的法制建設 完善和健全審計法規(guī)體系是內部審計風險控制的基礎措施。 保證內部審計的獨立性 獨立性可以使內部審計師提出公正的和不偏不倚的專業(yè)判斷，這對審計工作的恰當開展是必不可少的。 做出更出色的決策 在其 1996 年有關風險管理的暢銷書《與天為敵：風險探索傳奇》的最后幾頁，彼得 “ 當我們盯著不斷閃現著數據的屏幕時，我們會全神貫注，而忘了計算機只能回答問題，它并不能提出問題 ?? 那些 以數字為生的人可能會發(fā)現，計算機完全取代了 ‘ 神諭 ’ ，在古代，人們常?？可裰I為自己的風險管理和決策提供指導。它們會盅惑我們，讓我們自以為弄清了風險的潛在因素所在，可實際上，我們根本沒有做過探究工作。在 2020 年的報告中，一場資產價格的全球性崩潰被確認為主要風險，并將其視為最可能發(fā)生而且會產生最大影響的風險之一。澳大利亞最大的能源公司伍德塞德能源公司的高級副總裁邁克爾 在即將進入一個陌生的國家時，我們會用相當的精力為企業(yè)弄清全部的風險所在。 ” 瑞士國際管理發(fā)展學院的羅森茲維格補充說，要想在自己特定的行業(yè)內勝出，公司還應該考慮自己需要承擔什么水平的風險。如果是這種情況，那么，你就承擔不起采用保守策略的后果。 “ 戰(zhàn)略就是在條件尚不明確的情況下做出選擇。海利奇談到，比如，在達能公司，現在在業(yè)務運作過程中，風險考量已經被植入到了戰(zhàn)略制定、預算等多個環(huán)節(jié)，在公司對運營進行季度評價以及發(fā)生重大變化或者啟動新項目的時候，都會對風險問題進行更多的討論。實際上，我們現在需要 認識到的是，要將決策過程整合到風險評估過