【正文】 rejected branch. Next, moving one more column to the left brings us to fork b. Since this is a chance fork, step 2 of the procedure needs to be applied. The expected payoff for each of its branches is recorded over the following decision fork. Therefore, the expected payoff is EP = (60) + (270) 123, for fork b, as recorded over this fork in Fig. . 重慶大學(xué)制造工程研究所副所長(zhǎng) 鄢萍 博士 ?2022 SYSTEM。 it is shown as a square. The branches extending from a decision node are decision branches, each branch representing one of the possible alternatives or courses of action available at that point. The set of alternatives must be mutually exclusive (if one is chosen, the others cannot be chosen) and collectively exhaustive (all possible alternatives must be included in the set). 重慶大學(xué)制造工程研究所副所長(zhǎng) 鄢萍 博士 ?2022 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING An event node is a point where uncertainty is resolved (a point where the decision maker learns about the occurrence of an event). An event node, sometimes called a chance node, is shown as a circle. The event set consists of the event branches extending from an event node, each branch representing one of the possible events that may occur at that point. 重慶大學(xué)制造工程研究所副所長(zhǎng) 鄢萍 博士 ?2022 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING The set of events must be mutually exclusive (if one occurs, the others cannot occur) and collectively exhaustive (all possible events must be included in the set). Each event is assigned a subjective probability。 decision rule is that it incorporates all the available information, including all the payoffs and the best available estimates of the probabilities of the respective states of nature. It is sometimes argued that these estimates of the probabilities necessarily are largely subjective and so are too shaky to be trusted. There is no accurate way of predicting the future, including a future state of nature, even in probability terms. This argument has some validity. The reasonableness of the estimates of the probabilities should be assessed in each individual situation. 重慶大學(xué)制造工程研究所副所長(zhǎng) 鄢萍 博士 ?2022 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING Nevertheless, under many circumstances, past experience and current evidence enable one to develop reasonable estimates of the probabilities. Using this information should provide better grounds for a sound decision than ignoring it. Furthermore, experimentation frequently can be conducted to improve these estimates, as described in the next section. Therefore, we will be using only Bayes39。s expected profit (after deducting the cost of drilling) will be $700,000. A loss of $100,000 (the drilling cost) will be incurred if the land is dry (no oil). 重慶大學(xué)制造工程研究所副所長(zhǎng) 鄢萍 博士 ?2022 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING Table summarizes these data. Section discusses how to approach the decision of whether to drill or sell based just on these data. (We will refer to this as the first Goferbroke Co. problem.) However, before deciding whether to drill or sell, another option is to conduct a detailed seismic survey of the land to obtain a better estimate of the probability of finding oil. Section discusses this case of decision making with experimentation, at which point the necessary additional data will be provided. 重慶大學(xué)制造工程研究所副所長(zhǎng) 鄢萍 博士 ?2022 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING DECISION MAKING WITHOUT EXPERIMENTATION In general terms, the decision maker must choose an action from a set of possible actions. The set contains all the feasible alternatives under consideration for how to proceed with the problem of concern. This choice of an action must be made in the face of uncertainty, because the oute will be affected by random factors that are outside the control of the decision maker. These random factors determine what situation will be found at the time that the action is executed. Each of these possible situations is referred to as a possible state of nature. 重慶大學(xué)制造工程研究所副所長(zhǎng) 鄢萍 博士 ?2022 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING For each bination of an action and a state of nature, the decision maker knows what the resulting payoff would be. The payoff is a quantitative measure of the value to the decision maker of the consequences of the oute. If the consequences of the oute do not bee pletely certain even when the state of nature is given, then the payoff bees an expected value (in the statistical sense) of the measure of the consequences. A payoff table monly is used to provide the payoff for each bination of an action and a state of nature. 重慶大學(xué)制造工程研究所副所長(zhǎng) 鄢萍 博士 ?2022 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING The decision analysis framework can be summarized as follows: 1. The decision maker needs to choose one of the alternative actions. 2. Nature then would choose one of the possible states of nature. 3. Each bination of an action and state of nature would result in a payoff。s expected profit (after deducting the cost of drilling) will be $700,000. A loss of $100,000 (the drilling cost) will be incurred if the land is dry (no oil). 重慶大學(xué)制造工程研究所副所長(zhǎng) 鄢萍 博士 ?2022 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING How to approach the decision of whether to drill or sell based just on these data. (We will refer to this as the first Goferbroke Co. problem.) However, before deciding whether to drill or sell, another option is to conduct a detailed seismic survey of the land to obtain a better estimate of the probability of finding oil. 重慶大學(xué)制造工程研究所副所長(zhǎng) 鄢萍 博士 ?2022 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING Status of Land Alternative Payoff Oil Dry Drill for Oil $700,000 $100,000 Sell the Land $90,000 $90,000 Chance of Status 1 in 4 3 in 4 重慶大學(xué)制造工程研究所副所長(zhǎng) 鄢萍 博士 ?2022 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING 1. A manufacturer introducing a new product into the marketplace. What will be the reaction of potential custom