【正文】 chances that they are correct. Confidence is no prophet and is best used together with available evidence. When witnesses are called to testify in a court trial, the confidence in their testimony is measured along with and against the evidence at hand.與“確定性偏差”相類似的是“過度自信偏差”。這種偏差在兩種敵對觀點的對抗中會起到尤其重要的作用。舉一個例子，你可能會毫無根據(jù)地假定自己的房子會升值，哪怕周圍百分之九十的房子都已經(jīng)貶值了，因為你總認(rèn)為自己的能力更強。“詹金斯丟掉了工作是因為他能力太差，我丟掉了工作則是因為經(jīng)濟衰退。3 One of the most mon biases is what is known as the fundamental attribution error. Through this people attribute the failures of others to character flaws and their own to mere circumstance, subconsciously considering their own characters to be stainless. Jenkins lost his job because of his inpetence。但是，研究人類決策過程的心理學(xué)家們卻發(fā)現(xiàn)了每個人身上都常見的“認(rèn)知偏差”。是我讓他同意你們的協(xié)議的，這樣他就能擁有你的夾克！”TextBWhy do smart people do dumb things?聰明人為何會做蠢事？1 Orthodox views prize intelligence and intellectual rigor highly in the modern realm of universities and tech industry jobs. One of the underlying assumptions of this value system is that smart people, by virtue of what they39。ll never know where his next meal is ing from. Can you give me one good reason why you should be with him?我極力地保持著平靜，說道：“你怎么會甩了我而選擇羅伯？看看我，一個聰明過人的學(xué)生，一個不同凡響的學(xué)者，一個前途無量的人。40 Why? I demanded.“為什么？”我追問道?！安贿^不要對它們太死板，我是說這都是些學(xué)術(shù)的東西。”35 Ad Misericordiam, she said.“文不對題，”她說。34 Polly, I love you. Please say you39?！?3 I laughed with somewhat less amusement, hiding my dread that she39。re not a cake. You39。t have to eat a whole cake to know it39?！?0 Hasty Generalization, said Polly brightly. Or as a normal person might say, that39。27 Polly, I said when next we sat under our oak, tonight we won39。”25 I still think it39。t taking a test to see how much they have learned, but students are. The situations are altogether different. You can39。舉個例子：學(xué)生考試時應(yīng)該允許看課本，因為外科醫(yī)生在做手術(shù)時可以看X光片。s sympathy — Ad Misericordiam.“對，是挺可怕的,”我表示贊同地說,“但這不是理由。20 Yes, it39。16 Seated under the oak the next evening I said, Our first fallacy tonight is called Ad Misericordiam.第二天晚上，坐在那棵橡樹下，我說：“今天晚上我們要談的第一個邏輯謬誤叫‘文不對題’。”13 Really? said Polly, amazed. Nobody?“是嗎？”波莉吃驚地說。”12 Next is Hasty Generalization. Selfexplanatory, right? Listen carefully: You can39。s too simple a generalization. If you have, say, heart disease or extreme obesity, exercise is bad, not good. Therefore, you must say exercise is good for most people.我看得出她沒弄明白。9 Dicto Simpliciter means an unqualified generalization. For example: Exercise is good. Therefore, everybody should exercise.“‘絕對判斷’是指在證據(jù)不足的情況下所作出的推斷。s look at the fallacy Dicto Simpliciter.“邏輯學(xué)的原理，”我說道，“即清晰思考的主要原則?！拔覀円勑┦裁?？”她問道。4 After a banner day out, I drove until we were situated under a big old oak tree on a hill off the expressway. What I had in mind was a little eccentric. I thought the venue with a perfect view of the luminous city would lighten the mood. We stayed in the car, and I turned down the stereo and took my foot off the brake pedal. What are we going to talk about? she asked.在一起外出度過了美好的一天之后，我驅(qū)車來到了高速公路旁一座小山上一棵古老的大橡樹下。她擁有合適的家庭背景，足以勝任一名堅忍而睿智的律師的女友。那一年校園里每個人都有件皮夾克，而羅伯是校足球隊員中唯一一個沒有皮夾克的，他一想到這個就受不了，于是他和我達成了一項協(xié)議，用他的女友換取我的夾克。t, so he made a pact that he39。t stand the idea of being the only football player who didn39。t too shrewd, either.在我和室友羅伯的交易成功之后，我和波莉有了第一次約會。t dye her hair strange colors or wear too much makeup. She had the right background to be the girlfriend of a dogged, brilliant lawyer. If I could show the elite law firms I applied to that I had a radiant, wellspoken counterpart by my side, I just might edge past the petition.但她漂亮而且富有，也沒有把頭發(fā)染成奇怪的顏色或是化很濃的妝。而我也能施予她足夠多的“智慧之珠”，讓她變得“談吐優(yōu)雅”。我們呆在車子里，我調(diào)低了音響并把腳從剎車上挪開。7 The doctrine of logic, I said, is a staple of clear thinking. Failures in logic distort the truth, and some of them are well known. First let39?！? Great, she agreed.“好啊，”她表示同意。11 I could see she was stumped. Polly, I explained, it39。所以你應(yīng)該說，運動對大多數(shù)人來說是有益的。這似乎不言自明，對吧？仔細(xì)聽好了：你不會說法語，羅伯也不會說法語，那么這所學(xué)校里好像是沒有人會說法語。我把她送回家，并且定下了下一次約會交談的日子。”19 Oh, this is awful, awful, she whispered in a choked voice.“哇，這太可怕了，太可怕了,”她哽咽著輕聲說道。s question. Instead he appealed to the boss39。22 Next, I said carefully, we will discuss False Analogy. An example, students should be allowed to look at their textbooks during exams, because surgeons have Xrays to guide them during surgery.“接下來”，我小心地說，“我們來討論‘錯誤類比’。t derail the discussion. The inference is wrong. Doctors aren39。他們的情況完全不同，你不能將他們作類比?，F(xiàn)在應(yīng)該是時候讓我們的關(guān)系從學(xué)術(shù)向浪漫發(fā)展了。29 Favoring her with a grin, I said, We have now spent five evenings together. We get along pretty well. We make a pretty good couple.我贊許地對她笑了笑，說:“我們在一起已經(jīng)度過了五個晚上，相互之間挺合得來，我們是蠻相配的一對。d learned her lessons well, far surpassing my expectations. Sweetheart, I said, patting her hand in a tolerant manner, five dates is plenty. After all, you don39?！?2 False Analogy, said Polly promptly. Your premise is that dating is like eating. But you39?？赡悴皇堑案猓闶莻€男孩。我決定改變策略，轉(zhuǎn)而嘗試奉承她的辦法。請答應(yīng)做我的女朋友，沒有你我什么也不是。t have anything to do with real life.“你還真是能在遇到邏輯謬誤時一一辨別它們了，”我說，心里的希望已經(jīng)開始動搖?！?8 I leaped to my feet, my temper flaring up. Will you or will you not go out with me?我一下跳了起來，怒火中燒，“你到底愿不愿意做我的女朋友？”39 No to your proposition, she replied.“我不愿意，”她答道?！?2 With great effort, I said calmly, How could you give me the axe over Rob? Look at me, an ingenious student, a tremendous intellectual, a man with an assured future. Look at Rob, a muscular idiot, a guy who39。ll put it in a way someone as brilliant as you can understand, retorted Polly, her voice dripping with sarcasm. Full disclosure — I like Rob in leather. I told him to say yes to you so he could have your jacket! “喔，這是什么假設(shè)啊！為了讓像你這樣聰明的人能夠明白，我這么說吧，”波莉反駁道，聲音里充滿了諷刺，“事情的真相是——我喜歡羅伯穿皮衣。在大多數(shù)情況下，確實如此。只要知道這些偏差如何及在何種情況下發(fā)生，你就能意識到自身的缺陷，并在決策過程中考慮到這些因素的影響。犯這種錯誤的人會將別人的失敗歸因于性格缺陷，而將自己的失敗僅僅歸因于周遭環(huán)境，潛意識中認(rèn)為自己的性格是完美無瑕的。這不僅導(dǎo)致我們心胸狹窄地對別人進行評價也會由于假定某種壞事只會發(fā)生在別人身上而致使我們做出錯誤的風(fēng)險評判。6 For example, imagine that you suspect your puter has been hacked. Every time it st