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A.，1971，“Peasants，Procreation，and Pensions”，American Economic Review，380389.214。莊亞兒、張麗萍，2003：《1990年以來中國常用人口數(shù)據(jù)集》，中國人口出版社。王志濤、文啟湘，2004：《政府消費、政府規(guī)模與經(jīng)濟全球化》，《財政研究》第9期，第5－8頁。孫鳳，2001：《預(yù)防性儲蓄理論與中國居民消費行為》，《南開經(jīng)濟研究》第1期，第54－58頁。龍志和、周浩明，2000：《中國城鎮(zhèn)居民預(yù)防性儲蓄實證研究》，《經(jīng)濟研究》第11期，第33－38頁。林毅夫，2007：《中國經(jīng)濟:煎焦的凍魚》。胡書東，2002：《中國財政支出和民間消費需求之間的關(guān)系》，《中國社會科學(xué)》，第6期，第26－32頁。參考文獻國家統(tǒng)計局編，《中國統(tǒng)計年鑒》，中國統(tǒng)計出版社，2003－2005 各年。在計量方法上，雖然我們通過引入年度虛擬變量來控制模型的橫截面相依性，但這樣處理實際上是假定導(dǎo)致橫截面相依的因素對各截面具有相同的影響。我們意外發(fā)現(xiàn)兒童撫養(yǎng)系數(shù)和居民消費率之間存在負的相關(guān)性，這與LCH和現(xiàn)有文獻結(jié)論都不同，但它僅僅是從中國的個案研究中所得到的結(jié)論。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，滯后一期的居民消費率對當期消費具有顯著的正的影響，這說明中國居民消費習慣非常穩(wěn)定，因此，中國經(jīng)濟快速增長伴隨著居民消費率的加速下降。五、結(jié)論和含義本文利用中國1989－2004年的分省面板數(shù)據(jù)和動態(tài)面板廣義矩估計方法，考察了中國人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)（兒童撫養(yǎng)系數(shù)和老年撫養(yǎng)系數(shù)）變化對居民消費的影響。第三，動態(tài)面板廣義矩估計適合具有較小的時間維度（T）和較大的截面維度（N）的面板數(shù)據(jù)。