alternativeapproachestovaluation(收購與兼并--wenkub
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【正文】 fair – Further analysis is required MAGuobo Huang 30 Chapter 10 7 The Spreadsheet and Formula Methodologies Applied to Chevron, 1983 ? With eight items of financial information, we develop a first estimate MAGuobo Huang 31 Chapter 10 8 – For Chevron in 1983 without Gulf the value drivers were: ?Actual tax rate (T ) = % ?Aftertax profitability rate (r) = % ?Investment opportunities rate (b) = % ?Growth rate in EBIT (g) = % ?Years of prospective supernormal growth (n) = 10 ?Marginal cost of capital (k) = % ?Initial EBIT (1983) (X0) = $3,106 million MAGuobo Huang 32 Chapter 10 9 – The indicated 1983 value of Chevron was $ billion ?Deduct total interestbearing debt of $2 billion ?The formula market value of equity was $ billion ?The actual market value was $12 billion MAGuobo Huang 33 Chapter 10 10 ? Spreadsheet method – Develop a spreadsheet for the future 10 years – DCF the free cash flows at a cost of capital of 12% – We obtained a value of $7,082 million – We obtained a value of $7,123 million using the formula method – The spreadsheet method and formula method give the same results MAGuobo Huang 34 Chapter 10 11 The Value of Gulf, 1983 ? Use the formula method for Gulf at the end of 1983 – The value drivers for Gulf were: ?Actual tax rate (T ) = 50% ?Aftertax profitability rate (r) = % ?Investment opportunities rate (b) = % ?Growth rate in EBIT (g) = % ?Years of prospective supernormal growth = 10 ?Marginal cost of capital (k) = % ?Initial EBIT (1983) (X0) = $2,990 million MAGuobo Huang 35 Chapter 10 12 – The formula value for Gulf was $7,395 million – Its actual market value was $9 billion – Valuing Gulf as a no growth pany gives $ billion ? Valuation by the formula method is checked by analysis of finding costs – The returns from Gulf exploration and development (ED) programs were negative – By stopping ED programs, Gulf could have avoided losses with a capitalized value of $MAGuobo Huang 36 Chapter 10 13 – Add the per share value of mon stock of $39 to give a total of $89 ? Chevron purchased Gulf reserves at a saving of $5 per barrel below its own finding costs。s petitive position ?Assessments of financial patterns, strategies, and actions of petitors – Based on analysis, relevant cash flows are projected – Procedures similar to capital budgeting analysis ? Capital budgeting decisions ? Spreadsheet projections – Provide great flexibility in projections MAGuobo Huang 8 Chapter 9 8 – NPV of acquisition obtained from sum of free cash flows discounted at applicable cost of capital ? Advantages of spreadsheet approach – Expressed in financial statements – Any desired detail of individual bal
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