【正文】 Economic Liberalism III. Economic Globalization IV. Technology,the Information Economy and Services V. The Global Shift of Economic Power VI. The Demographic Revolution VII. The Challenge of Global Regionalism VIII. Managing the Global Economy 2022/5/25 51 Chapter 1: I. Introduction 1. The two Great Ages of capitalism (1) Pax Britannica: the dominance of the British Empire, economically, politically and militarily, in the international system between 1815 and 1914, when Britain provided such international public goods as the encouragement of free trade and the provision of a lender of last resort. (2) Pax Americana: the donimance of the US, both economically and politically, in the international system of the postWWII period, when the US promoted the establishment of GATT and IMF. 2022/5/25 52 Chapter 1: I. Introduction 2. The profound transformation of world economic and political system in the postCold War world (1) The collapse of the Soviet Union (2) A stagnant and yet rich Japan (3) The reunification of Germany and its return as the dominant power in Europe (4) The rise of China and Pacific Asia (5) The technological revolution and information economy (6) The redistribution of economic power (7) The retreat of the state (8) The demographic revolution (9) The economic globalization 2022/5/25 53 Chapter 1: II. The Triumph of Economic Liberalism 1. Unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar: which one is the most expected? (1) Bipolar system: security interests and alliance cohesion held the world economy together stability (2) Multipolar system: national interests first ethnic, political and economic conflict A. Shift in American policy a. Military security economic security b. Geopolitics geoeconomics c. Mutilateralism unilateralism, regionalism managed trade 2022/5/25 54 Chapter 1: II. The Triumph of Economic Liberalism B. Shift in the priorities of Europe and Japan a. Less willing to follow American leadership b. Regionalism: EU and Pacific Asia 2. The ramifications of the shifts in national priorities for the world economy Close cooperation weakened the health and stability of world economy threatened 3. Reasons for the economic turmoil after Cold War (1) Public’s misconceptions and selfserving demands (2) Economists’ responsibility 2022/5/25 55 Chapter 1: III. Economic Globalization 1. Definition (1) Globalization refers to a set of processes leading to the integration of economic activity in factor, intermediate, and final goods and services markets across geographical boundaries, and the increased salience of crossborder value chains in international economic flows. (2) Globalization refers to the growing economic interdependence of countries worldwide through the increasing volume and variety of crossborder transactions in goods and services and of international capital flows, and also through the more rapid and widespread diffusion of technology. 2022/5/25 56 Chapter 1: III. Economic Globalization 2. The evolution of globalization 雖然國(guó)內(nèi)外多數(shù)學(xué)者認(rèn)為全球化并非新現(xiàn)象，而是一個(gè)歷史過(guò)程，但對(duì)階段的劃分尚不一致。2022年 10月 24日， IMF向該國(guó)提供 20億援助貸款。目前出問(wèn)題的就是美國(guó)的第三類市場(chǎng)。 創(chuàng)新 創(chuàng)造性的毀滅過(guò)程 經(jīng)濟(jì)周期 2022/5/25 18 Figure: Business cycle Real GDP Time Slump/Trough Recovery Boom/Peak Slump/Trough Recession Long run trend 2022/5/25 19 Introduction I. The Growth and Instability of Capitalism 2. Instability: the aftermath of creative destruction (1) Imbalance of economic development within and among nations (2) Threat to traditional social values,beliefs and institutions (3) Periodic recessions and downturns (4) Concentration of wealth, power and economic activities (5) Revolt against an open global economy 2022/5/25 20 Introduction: I. The Growth and Instability of Capitalism 3. The precondition for the stability of capitalist system: strong and wise leadership two functions of international leadership (1) Promote international cooperation (2) Ensure minimal safeguard for the losers 2022/5/25 21 Introduction: : Triumph of Capitalism 1. The general reasons for NAE (1) Government deregulation (2) Corporate restructuring (3) Technological advances 2. The specific reasons for NAE (1) Large exports to overseas markets (2) Large amounts of imported capital (3) Skillful management of the economy by the Fed (4) Full of raw material prices 2022/5/25 22 表： Chronology of Alan Greenspan 生于美國(guó)紐約市 1948 紐約大學(xué)商學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)士 1950 紐約大學(xué)商學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)碩士 1977 紐約大學(xué)博士 1966 尼克松總統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策研究室主任 1974 福特總統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)主席 19811983 里根總統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)主席 1987 由里根提名，出任 Fed 主席 1991 布什提名，連任 Fed 主席 1996 克林頓提名，再任 Fed 主席 2022 克林頓提名，第三次連任 Fed 主席 2022 卸任 2022/5/25 23 Introduction: : Triumph of Capitalism 3. The Characteristics of NAE (1) Low inflation (2) Low unemployment (3) Low federal budget deficit (4) High expansion/productivity (5) Wealth effect 2022/5/25 24 Table:US inflation,unemployment,growth rate GDP Growth Rate(%) CPI (%) Unemployment Rate (%) 6069 Annual Average 7079 Annual Average 8089 Annual Average 9099 Annual Average 2022/5/25 25 Figure: Dow Jones Index and Wealth Effect 0202240006000800010000120221400072.1187.191.495.295.1196.197.297.798.499.399.52002.112003.122006.112007.42007.112008.10.062009.32009.9D JI ndex2022/5/25 26 Figure: NASDAQ Index 19712022 010002022300040005000600071.28187.1291.495.797.798.799