[經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)]財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表與證券定價(jià)佩因曼英文ppt(已修改)
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【正文】 CHAPTER FOUR McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2022 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Cash Accounting, Accrual Accounting, and Discounted Cash Flow Valuation What you will learn from this Chapter ? How the dividend discount model works (or does not work) ? What is meant by cash flow from operations ? What is meant by cash used in investing activities ? What is meant by free cash flow ? How discounted cash flow valuation works ? Problems that arise in applying cash flow valuation ? Why free cash flow may not measure value added in operations ? Why free cash flow is a liquidation concept ? How discounted cash flow valuation involves cash accounting for operating activities ? Why “cash flow from operations” reported in . financial statements does not measure operating cash flows correctly ? Why “cash flows in investing activities” reported in . financial statements does not measure cash investment in operations correctly ? How accrual accounting for operations differs from cash accounting for operations ? The difference between earnings and cash flow from operations ? The difference between earnings and free cash flow ? How accruals and the accounting for investment affect the balance sheet as well as the ine statement ? Why analysts forecast earnings rather than cash flows ? How a valuation model is a model of accounting for the future ? How reverse engineering works as an analysis tool ? What a “simple valuation” is 43 Valuation Models: Going Concerns CF 1 CF 2 CF 3 CF 4 CF 5 A Firm 1 2 3 4 5 0 d 1 d 2 d 3 d 4 d 5 Dividend Flow 1 2 3 4 5 0 TVT T d T Equity The terminal value, TVT is the price payoff, PT when the share is sold Valuation issues : The forecast target: dividends, cash flow, earnings? The time horizon: T = 5, 10, ? The terminal value The discount rate ?44 The Dividend Discount Model: Targeting Dividends ? DDM: Problems: How far does one project? ? Does provide a good estimate of VE0? (i) Dividend policy can be arbitrary and not linked to value added. (ii) The firm can borrow to pay dividends。 this does not create value (iii) Think of a firm that “pays no dividends” ? The dividend irrelevancy concept ? The dividend conundrum: ?Equity value is based on future dividends, but forecasting dividends over finite horizons does not give an indication of this value ? Conclusion: Focus on creation of wealth rather than distribution of wealth. 3120 23EEEEdddV???? ? ? ?312023E TTE E E Edd d dV? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ?45 Terminal Values for the DDM A. Capitalize expected terminal dividends B. Capitalize expected terminal dividends with growth Will it work? T1TTEdT V P1?????T1TTEdT V Pg?????46 Some Math: The Value of a Perpetuity and a Perpetuity with Growth The Value of a Perpetuity A perpetuity is a constant stream that continues without end. The periodic payoff in the stream is sometimes referred to as an annuity, so a perpetuity is an annuity that continues forever. To value that stream, one capitalizes the constant amount expected. If the dividend expected next year is expected to be a perpetuity, the value of the dividend stream is Value of a perpetual dividend stream = The Value of a Perpetuity with Growth If an amount is forecasted to grow at a constant rate, its value can be calculated by capitalizing the amount at the required return adjusted for the growth rate: Value of a dividend growing
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