外國精品ppt之sequoia-文庫吧
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【正文】 ON BANK’S BALANCE SHEETSOFTEN MISRATED BY AGENCIESREPEAL OF GLASSSTEAGALLREGULATORY CHANGES ENCOURAGING HOME OWNERSHIPHUGE GROWTH IN DERIVATIVESOutstanding amount of open positions in OTC derivatives markets$525T35035x.GDP17501995 1998 2022 2022. GDP2022Note: Outstanding amount is not a pure measure of risk as some positions are ted and have collateral。 . GDP was $ in 2022Source: Bank for International SettlementsSIGNIFICANT EXCESS CAPACITYSource: BridgewaterVERY TIGHT CREDITHigh yield spreads (basis points) Investment grade spreads (basis points)1,250 5001,000 40075050025030020010001998 2022 2022 2022 2022 202201998 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022Source: Merrill LynchJAPAN MAY BE INSTRUCTIVENikkei Index 1988 present Japanese discount rate Annual real GDP growth40,000 8% 6%30,000 6 3Average20,000 4 010,000 2 30 0 61990 1995 2022 2022 Oct 2022 1990 1995 2022 2022 Jul08 1990 1995 2022 2022Source: Bank of Japan, Yahoo FinanceKEY THEMESGLOBALSECULARNOT “NORMAL CRISIS”, WILL TAKE TIMECREDIT NOT EQUITY DRIVENSIGNIFICANT RISK TO GDP GROWTHPOTENTIAL FOR GREATER REGULATORY REFORMS / SCRUTINYOUR TAKEMANAGE WHAT YOU CAN CONTROLSPENDINGGROWTH ASSUMPTIONSEARNINGS ASSUMPTIONSFOCUS ON QUALITYLOWER RISKREDUCE DEBTMAIN STREETWHERE ARE WE NOW?MICHAEL BECKWITH21THE .: A NATION OF CONSUMERSTHE CHANGING FACE OF THE ECONOMY$ TRILLIONSTOTAL . GDPCONSUMER SPENDINGCONSUMER AS % OF TOTAL GDPDISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME198766%199770%202273%Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.HOMEOWNERSHIP%EXPLOSION IN HOME OWNERSHIPLONGTERM AVERAGESource: Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey, Series H111 Reports, Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233.WAGE GROWTH amp。 PERSONAL SAVINGSPERSONAL SAVINGS RATEPERSONAL SAVINGS RATE EVAPORATEDREAL WAGE GROWTH FELLFALLING REAL WAGES ERODING PCESource: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve, Haver, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, Factset, Man Stanley Research.CONSUMERS BUCKLING UNDER DEBTHOUSEHOLD DEBT SERVICE RATIO HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL OBLIGATION RATIODSR = DEBT PAYMENTS ON OUTSTANDING MORTGAGES AND CONSUMERDE
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